In an election to choose the new director-general of the IAEA at the end of March neither of the two original candidates could muster enough support to win the necessary two-thirds majority among the board of governors representing 35 countries. After the deadlock was reached, three more candidates were added to the roster. On Tuesday, all five contenders are giving presentations on their candidacies to the IAEA board. A date for the next round of elections has not yet been announced.

Along with the two original candidates Yukiya Amano of Japan and Abdul Samad Minty of South Africa, Jean-Pol Poncelet of Belgium, Ernest Petric of Slovenia and Luis Echavarri of Spain have thrown their hats into the ring.

"The major fight is between developed and developing countries", explains Kai-Henrik Barth, a nuclear weapons expert at Georgetown University. Developed nations are primarily concerned about nuclear proliferation and want a competent technocrat to run the agency, says Barth. Developing nations, on the other hand, want someone who plays an active role in delivering nuclear technology around the globe. "This North-South-split tears this election apart at the moment", says Barth.

Politicised board

Mark Fitzpatrick, a former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Non-proliferation, who was in charge of liaison with the IAEA for the United States during a four year stint in Vienna, notes that while the tensions between developed and developing countries have existed for quite some time, things have gotten worse recently. "The IAEA used to operate on a consensus principle", he says, adding that earlier there was great emphasis at the IAEA on reaching decisions unanimously.

That's different today: "The board of governors is terribly divided. There's a split between the developed nations and the developing world that has politicised the board in a way that is hasn't been for many decades."

One of the biggest tasks for the new director-general, according to both experts, is trying to heal this internal rift between both camps.

His most important external issues are North Korea and Iran. "In North Korea he faces the challenge that North Korea abrogated its commitments to the non-proliferation treaty (NPT) and then is using the facilities that it has developed while a member of the NPT for weapons purposes ", says Fitzpatrick. Iran, he adds, has refused to answer the IAEA's questions and has refused to allow the IAEA to have the advanced design information for new facilities. "Inspectors cannot regularly visit for example the plutonium production reactor being built in Arak."

Dealing with those challenges requires a strong, but diplomatically savvy leader who is able to get along equally with the United States and Europe but also Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.

So which of the candidates should get the job? Fitzpatrick still considers Japan's Ambassador to the IAEA, Yukiya Amano, who is supported by many Western countries and was the frontrunner in the first round of elections, as the best pick.

Three leading candidates

"I think that Ambassador Amano still seems to have many, if not most of the qualities that countries seek. He's very technically knowledgeable, he's demonstrated leadership in the board, he comes from a country that has a very solid record on non-proliferation and expertise in nuclear energy."

His colleague Kai-Henrik Barth believes it's a three-way race. "I personally would count out Mr. Petric and Mr. Poncelet." He predicts that in the end it will either be a repeat of the first round of elections between Amano and Minti or a race between Amano and Echevarrez.

"Whether any of these three leading candidates, Amano, Minti, Echevarry has enough standing in light of Iran's and North Korea's nuclear programs that is really debatable. I am not so hopeful."

Barth is very concerned that the dual mission of the IAEA - promoting the safe use of nuclear energy and being the UN's nuclear arms watchdog at the same time - is almost impossible to fulfill by a single organisation - no matter who eventually becomes director-general.

"This is the tension at the core of the non-proliferation treaty (NPT) and at the core of the IAEA." He points to the fact that the US for similar reasons had dissolved its Atomic Energy Commission in the 1970's and split the tasks of nuclear security and promotion of nuclear energy between two separate government entities.

When asked about concrete expectations for the new director-general, Fitzpatrick answers with not so veiled criticism of the political role played by the outgoing head of the IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei: "I think the new director-general would be well advised to stick strongly to the technical role, provide the unfettered advice and to do as much as he can to carry out the mandates of the Security Council and the IAEA Board to persuade Iran to suspend its program that has caused so much concern."

Barth has equally clear demands: "I want somebody in there who can really stand up and say there is no right based on the NPT for enrichment within every country. This is just not written in the NPT."

The new director-general is to take over the helm of the IAEA after ElBaradei's term expires at the end of November.

Author: Michael Knigge

Editor: Chuck Penfold