Moves by some Western airlines to cut flights to China this summer have raised questions about the future of travel to the country.

British Airways recently suspended flights between London and Beijing following Virgin Atlantic's decision to pull of its London-Shanghai route and Qantas ending flights between Sydney and Shanghai.

One of the biggest reasons aviation insiders cite is the Russian airspace ban and the extra costs it forces on airlines. After Western nations hit Moscow with sanctions following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia barred practically all European and North American airlines from flying over its airspace.

Chinese airlines are not affected by the ban, which has helped them seize market share from Western competitors in an era when they are already seeking to expand internationally.

However, sluggish post-pandemic economic growth in China is still complicating the hoped-for recovery in air travel, while geopolitical tensions between China and the United States have also led to a recalibration by some airlines.

Flying around Russia

The Russian airspace ban has been a particular headache, though. John Grant, chief analyst at the aviation data company OAG, said that for many Western airlines, travel to China was seen as "an aviation sweet spot" because it was possible to get there and back within 24 hours.

"Services to Beijing and Shanghai used to be a perfect utilization of an aircraft," he told DW. "The ban has added about five and a half hours on a round trip journey to somewhere like Beijing, and it's a real challenge."

Those additional hours in the air mean significant extra fuel and staff costs, as well as potentially costly slot juggling at busy airports.

Qantas conundrum

However, the Russian airspace ban did not affect Australian airline Qantas, which announced the end of its Sydney-Shanghai connection in July.

Yi Gao, an associate professor in the School of Aviation and Transportation Technology of Purdue University, points out that Qantas has always had "limited" operations to mainland China and said it is inaccurate to consider the recent reduction in flights by Western airlines to China as "widespread."

However, he said increased competition from domestic Chinese carriers is becoming a growing factor in Western airlines' decisions. "Competition from Chinese carriers plays a crucial role," he told DW. "Chinese airlines benefit from a cost advantage, allowing them to offer more competitive airfares on routes to and from Chinese cities."

Brendan Sobie, a Singapore-based aviation analyst, said increased competition likely influenced Qantas' decision. "They struggle to compete with the Chinese carriers," he told DW.

He believes a pre-pandemic trend that saw Chinese carriers expand quickly is reigniting as travel demand gradually recovers in mainland China following years of COVID-19 restrictions.

"You already were seeing a shift as Chinese carriers were pursuing strategic expansion in the international market in the few years before the pandemic," he said.

"Post-pandemic, we are seeing the same thing come back. Many people would like to blame the Russian airspace issue, which certainly is a factor for foreign airlines. But I think this is a trend that would have happened regardless."

Chinese aviation was hit hard by the pandemic

Chinese carriers have actually increased the volume of flights to European cities such as London, Budapest, Istanbul, Milan and Madrid since 2019.

Sobie said that except for the North American and Indian markets, Chinese carriers' international capacity is now back at 2019 levels.

The pandemic undoubtedly struck a blow to China's aviation ambitions. Just months before the virus struck, the country's Beijing Daxing International Airport was opened to much fanfare. "The objective was to create a hub in Beijing Daxing, and then again in Shanghai, where you could have international passengers connecting to domestic passengers or even international to international, said John Grant. "But the pandemic scuppered all that."

 China's outbound travellers have for years been the world's top spenders on international tourism and airlines. However, the country's strict pandemic restrictions greatly curtailed travel to, from and within the country until 2023.

However, the country's domestic airlines' strong international capacity and their ability to sell to Chinese consumers — combined with the pressure on Western airlines — means they have still been able to muscle in on market share.

US-China travel still on the ground

While Chinese domestic carriers' paths to Europe are opening up, their North American market remains moribund. That is partly due to the struggle to compete and partly to the existing geopolitical tensions between China and the US.

Since the pandemic led to Beijing's strict border controls, travel between the US and China collapsed. China has been keen to restore the number of flights between the countries, but the current number is still just 15% of what it was in 2019.

Washington is reluctant to increase the number, particularly given that market conditions suggest it would favor Chinese carriers more than US ones at the moment — not something they want in an era of intense rivalry.

"The US Airlines such as United, Delta, and American have absolutely no interest in flying any more than they already do to China for the same reasons that the European carriers don't," said Grant.

However, while aviation experts agree that both post-pandemic travel patterns and geopolitical issues drive changes in the relationship between Western airlines and China, the market will always remain important for the biggest players.

Grant believes global carriers like Lufthansa, Air France, or British Airways will "have to have Beijing on your network" in the long term. "In time, they would all want to be back in that market. It's still a big market. It's just not going to be what everyone expected it to be."

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

Editor's note: The article has been corrected to clarify in the first paragraph that the airspace ban was imposed by Russia and is not part of the Western sanctions.