In a resolution issued on November 20, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called on Iran to "extend full and prompt cooperation" to the agency, which is seeking clarity on the status of Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles and safeguarded nuclear facilities.

Since the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, Tehran has not granted IAEA inspectors access to the facilities that were attacked by a US strike in June.

And while this dispute continues, Moscow is expanding its nuclear cooperation with Tehran.

"Our cooperation has reached an unprecedented level," Russia's ambassador to Tehran, Alexei Dedov, said in November.

According to the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA), Dedov emphasized that Moscow supports Tehran on its nuclear program.

Big promises, little nuclear progress

At the end of September, Russia and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding for the construction of small-scale nuclear power plants.

Two days later, Russian state atomic energy corporation Rosatom finalized a $25 billion (€21.4 billion) deal with Tehran to build four nuclear power plants in Iran. 

"Russia is the most important international partner in Iran's nuclear program," said David Jalilvand, who leads the Berlin-based policy consulting firm Orient Matters. 

"As far as the further expansion of Iran's nuclear program is concerned, Moscow has so far promised much and delivered little," Jalilvand told DW.

Iran currently has only one operating nuclear power plant, built by Russia in the southern Iranian city of Bushehr. The construction of a second reactor in Bushehr was announced in 2016, but has not yet been implemented. 

Jalilvand considers it unlikely that the new memorandum of understanding will be realized anytime soon.

"Russia has little interest in strengthening Iran's strategic position in the Middle East, partly because of its relations with Israel, the Gulf states, and Turkey," he said.

Russia-Iran alliance under fire

During the recent 12-day Israel-Iran war, Tehran received little support from Moscow.

In January, Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership treaty, which aimed to bolster collaboration across various sectors — including military, nuclear energy, advanced technology and financial cooperation to combat international sanctions.

The deal built on the 20-year strategic agreement initially signed in 2001, which has been periodically renewed and serves as the foundation for collaboration in the energy, defense, and military sectors. 

Tehran has supplied drones and weapons for Russia's war in Ukraine, becoming one of Moscow's most important supporters at the expense of its relations with Europe.

In return, Iran ordered several Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets, among other things, to modernize its air force.

However, these aircraft are still in production. And the recent war with Israel clearly exposed the weaknesses of Iran's air defense.

"The strategic agreement with Russia has proven to be a farce," criticized Mohammad Sadr, a member of Iran's powerful Expediency Discernment Council. 

"Russia is not trustworthy; to believe that it would stand by us or take on the US is absurd."

The image of Russia in Iranian society is correspondingly negative. 

"People know that Russia abandons Iran at crucial moments," a university professor in Tehran who requested anonymity, told DW.

"Many are convinced that the government clings to Moscow only to maintain power, not in the interest of the people."

Iran conservatives push Russia ties

Despite the lessons learned from the 12-day war, conservative forces in Iran are calling for a further deepening of cooperation with Moscow.

"Russia's influence in Iran's centers of power is undeniable," said Afshar Soleimani, a former Iranian ambassador in Azerbaijan.

"Conservative forces support Russia, the delivery of Iranian drones to Moscow, and ongoing tensions with the US," Soleimani told DW.

"This shows how strong their influence is. As long as this political movement remains in power, little will change — and the population will bear the consequences."

Kamran Ghazanfari, a conservative member of the Iranian parliament's internal affairs committee, even claimed that Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and prime minister who is currently deputy head of Russia's Security Council, has hinted indirectly that Russia might be willing to supply Iran with nuclear weapons.

Nuclear mediation or power politics?

Jalilvand considers such a prospect extremely unlikely.

"Russia has no interest in expanding the circle of nuclear powers in the already unstable Middle East," the expert said.

It is conceivable that Moscow could supply technologies that Tehran could theoretically also use for a military program, however, direct support in the construction of a nuclear bomb is considered out of the question.

Russia is primarily using the "Iran card" strategically as part of its negotiating position with the United States.

Tehran claims to have temporarily halted uranium enrichment, but whether Moscow will be able to persuade Iran to reduce its uranium stockpile remains unclear.

"Russia has repeatedly positioned itself as a mediator in the past," explained Middle East expert Jalilvand.

"This is unlikely to be motivated by an interest in resolving the nuclear conflict. Rather, in light of the war in Ukraine, Moscow is attempting to position itself as a supposedly constructive partner to the US, thereby [further] driving a wedge between Washington and Europe." 

Danyal Babayani contributed reporting

This article was originally published in German