At least 40,000 Indian citizens are expected to come to Russia as workers in 2026.

This was recently announced by Boris Titov, Russia's special representative for relations with international organizations in the field of sustainable development, to the Russian news agency RIA Novosti. Vinay Kumar, the Indian ambassador in Moscow who also spoke with the agency, said between 70,000 and 80,000 Indian citizens were already working in Russia at the end of 2025.

This movement from India to Russia has its origins in an agreement on labor mobility signed in December 2025 at a meeting in New Delhi between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The document plans for a quota of over 70,000 Indian citizens for 2026.

'India needs to export unemployment'

According to DW research, border crossing statistics show that the number of Indian citizens entering Russia is increasing. While around 32,000 people crossed the border in the first quarter of 2025 and 36,000 in the second quarter, that figure jumped to 63,000 in the third quarter.

Indian workers are recruited through official and unofficial agencies, which are largely responsible for making sure Indians get complete and accurate information about their future jobs. Wages for low-skilled Indian workers in Russia range from €475 to €950 ($555 to $1,111) per month, which is above what they would earn back at home.

In December, Russian news outlet Fontanka reported on a diverse group of Indian workers cleaning the streets of St. Petersburg. They told Fontanka that they received monthly wages of around 100,000 rubles (€1,125/$1,316), free accommodation and meals, as well as Russian language courses. According to the city administration, around 3,000 Indian citizens looking for work have come to St. Petersburg.

An Indian diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of bilateral relations, told DW that the labor agreement was also beneficial for India. "Russia needs workers, India needs to export unemployment," the diplomat explained.

Work or war?

The Indian diplomat said a formal agreement was necessary to legalize Indian migration to Russia, which had long been "happening informally and chaotically."

In the past, this had often led to Indians becoming victims of fraud. For example, some Indians had signed contracts with the Russian army under false pretenses and were sent to the war in Ukraine, the diplomat reported.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, 126 Indians have signed contracts with the Russian army, according to official figures. At least 12 Indian citizens have been killed on the Russian side, while 96 have returned to their homeland, according to the Indian Foreign Affairs Ministry.

In 2024, during a visit to Moscow, Prime Minister Modi spoke with Putin about the repatriation of Indians who had already signed contracts with the Russian army and also about the need to prevent new recruits from joining the army.

What obstacles do Indians face in Russia?

Russian economist Igor Lipsits pointed out that one of the biggest challenges for most Indian citizens in Russia is overcoming the language barrier. The majority of Indian workers do not speak Russian, while a significant portion of the Russian population, especially in rural areas, does not speak English.

"You bring people into the country with whom you cannot communicate. This means that they can only be employed for the simplest jobs such as hauling, cleaning and shoveling snow," said Lipsits.

In his opinion, cultural differences also limited the possibilities for integrating Indians into Russian society. "I think they are focusing on India because they want to minimize the number of Muslims entering the country," said economist Andrei Yakovlev. "They are assuming that mainly Hindus will come."

Yakovlev does not see Indian workers as a solution to the labor shortage in Russia, a view shared by Lipsits. "It's not so much street cleaners and unskilled workers that are lacking, but rather skilled professionals," he said, adding that, "at the moment, this is essentially a test run. They are trying to find out whether these people are a good fit for the Russian economy."

Why is Russia focusing on India?

In the wake of the deadly terror attack at Moscow's Crocus City Hall on March 22, 2024 — which saw at least 143 people killed, large parts of the venue set ablaze and parts of the roof collapse — Russian authorities ratcheted up their rhetoric against migrants from Central Asia while restricting the number people permitted to immigrate from those countries.

As Lipsits noted, the countries in the region themselves are increasingly suffering from a labor shortage. "Citizens of Central Asian states are now being poached by other labor markets, primarily the UK and Southern Europe. As a result, migrants are demanding higher wages, which makes employment less lucrative for Russian employers," he explained.

The experts DW spoke with said Russia's choice of India was not accidental. Rajan Kumar, a Russia expert at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, suspects Russia will likely pay the migrant workers in Indian rupees which it earns from oil trade. Trade turnover between India and Russia amounts to around $70 billion (€60 billion), but Russia only buys $5 billion worth of goods from India. This means rupees are accumulating in Russia, the expert explained. And Russia will want to put them to good use.

Russia sees fallout of steady population decline

According to the Federal State Statistics Service, Russia had a total labor shortage of 2.2 million workers in 2024. Experts from the national Russian Academy of Sciences put the figure at up to 4.8 million in 2023. The labor shortage is noticeable in industry, construction, logistics, medicine, trade and IT. However, experts emphasize that these estimates are only approximate values.

Yakovlev said the shortage was not caused solely by Russia's war in Ukraine, mobilization or emigration. In his view, the recruitment of Indians to Russia is a response by the Kremlin to deep-rooted demographic developments. 

"War, emigration and mobilization play a role, and these factors exacerbate the much longer-term problem of a steady population decline," added Lipsits. "All estimates of the deficit of 2 to 5 million people were based on an overheated economy. Now the situation is changing and a recession is beginning. Companies are cutting working hours, and mass layoffs are possible this year."

Indian experts are also cautious about the labor initiative. Lekha Chakraborty, a professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi, warned that Russian demand for workers was distorted and unstable due to the war. In her view, "post-conflict normalization — or escalation — could rapidly compress wages, trigger layoffs and strand migrants amid repatriation hurdles, and limited safeguards." 

This article was originally written in Russian.