"There is no organized opposition in Russia anymore because the Kremlin systematically suppresses it," Russian political scientist Konstantin Kalachev told DW recently.

Earlier this week yet another Russian opposition activist was handed a long prison sentence: Vladimir Kara-Murza was sentenced to 25 years in a penal colony. A court found him guilty of high treason, "discrediting the Russian army," and unlawful collaboration with an organization that is "undesired" in Russia.

According to Russian media outlets, he accepted money in exchange for helping NATO countries undermine Russia's national security. In his last statement in court, Kara-Murza compared the proceedings to the show trials that took place during the Joseph Stalin era. He didn't plead for an acquittal, stating that he still stands by everything he had said. 

Not all politically motivated convictions in Russia are carried out by the country's courts. Opposition politician Lev Schlossberg presumes that many are carried out on a political level. "In some cases they could be agreed upon with high-ranking officials in Putin's government, or even with Putin himself. I assume Kara-Murza's sentence was agreed upon with Putin," said Schlossberg.

Opposition politician Ilya Yashin was also convicted of "discrediting the Russian army" for publicly condemning alleged war crimes in Bucha. His lost his appeal, and will spend eight years in prison. Yashin's political career started in an era when it was still at least possible to speak of an actual opposition in Russia. He spent more than 20 years fighting against Russian President Vladimir Putin and autocracy in Russia.

Protesting is practically impossible

The most well-known Russian opposition politician is Alexei Navalny. He deliberately provoked the Russian elite during his countless public appearances, and wasn't afraid to share his opinions. In January 2021, he was arrested while returning to Russia, where he's serving a minimum nine-year prison sentence.

But Konstantin Kalachev says Navalny was never a serious candidate for the Russian presidency. "Before his arrest, Navalny didn't receive more than 1.5% of the votes. That definitely wasn't enough for a serious power grab."

According to Amnesty International, it's also becoming increasingly difficult to protest in Russia. Protesting carries with it high risks for the participants, and demonstrations are brutally put down. According to the Russia NGO OWD-Info, more than 15,000 demonstrators in Russia were arrested at anti-war protests in 2022 alone.

The exiled opposition is no longer relevant

Other big names in Russian opposition include world chess champion Garry Kasparov and former oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Both have lived outside of Russia for years. They meet up with other exiled Russians once a year in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius for the Free Russia Forum to discuss political topics.

"The problem with opposition figures in exile is that they immediately lose connection to the country," Kalachev emphasized. "Being an opposition activist in exile today is like a death sentence [in terms of relevance]. That's why the Free Russia Forum has practically no influence in Russia."

'Systemic Opposition' in Russia

According to the Kremlin there is only one kind of opposition: systemic opposition. That means parties that present themselves as the opposition, even though in reality they act according to the wishes of those in power.

There are currently five parties represented in the State Duma, the lower house of Russia's Federal Assembly. They include United Russia, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR),  Just Russia and New People. 

"The opposition is actually a political force, a political party. However, none of the parties that are represented in the Duma can be described as true opposition. Opposition parties should be a check on the government, but no parties in the Duma do that. They're all Putin's parties," says Schlossberg of the liberal Yabloko Party.

Putin has virtually destroyed the opposition in Russia, says Schlossberg. "Elections have become pretty much incidental. They're not really a criteria for success, and any desired result can be manufactured. What's most important is that there's a sterile Duma made up of 450 parliamentarians that unquestionably stands behind Putin."

Why there's no opposition coalition

In 2006, several opposition parties united and formed the The Other Russia coalition. Garry Kasparov was part of the coalition, as was the human rights organization Memorial. Their aim was to campaign as a united opposition during the Russian parliamentary elections in 2008. But they didn't achieve their goals, and the coalition was dissolved in 2010.

The same applies to the Democratic Coalition, which campaigned during the 2016 Duma elections. It too was made up of many opposition parties, but collapsed due to infighting and leadership issues. For Schlossberg, an important question remains: "Who can anyone form a coalition with in Russia? Give me the name of a true opposition party. There just isn't one."

The future of Russia's opposition

According to political scientist Konstantin Kalachev, there are plenty of Russians who openly ask questions about who Putin's successor will be. However, he thinks these issues should be addressed openly and not only discussed behind closed doors.

"There are opposition voices in Russia, but they don't take action. Nobody ever really emerges as the leader of a true opposition party because no one wants to lose the little bit of freedom they have. That's why there's no opposition in Russia anymore, and there won't be one again until Putin is no longer in power."

This article was translated from German.