Fortunately, nothing bad happened this time around. Had the attack succeeded, however, who knows what the consequences might have been: On the evening of August 4, a drone outfitted with explosives and a detonation device were discovered near Ukrainian cargo planes in the security area of Leipzig Airport. The airport serves as a hub for military aid to Ukraine.

The German government hesitated for a long time before publicly holding Russia responsible. But now it has announced its findings.

On Tuesday, September 1, Federal Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt told reporters that the methods used in the attempted attack were consistent with those seen in other Russian hybrid operations, citing the drone's construction, various components, explosives and detonation technology.

He noted that the attack had been planned with a "high degree of technical expertise and considerable organizational effort."

Back in late August, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said of the incident: "The federal government will make the perpetrators of hybrid attacks pay a price. They will pay for this."

At the time, he did not mention Russia by name. And even now, Merz himself has not commented on the matter.

However, the price Russia will have to pay is relatively small. The Russian House cultural institute in Berlin is being shut down amid suspicions that it is serving as a cover for espionage. The Russian Consulate General in Bonn is also being closed. What's more, entry requirements for Russian citizens are set to be tightened, and Germany also plans to take tougher action against the Russian "shadow fleet." Exactly how and when remains unclear, however.

Mixed reactions to Germany's measures

For the environmentalist Green Party in the Bundestag, however, this does not go far enough.

"The federal government's analysis came a bit late, and the steps it's taking aren't enough for me," said Sara Nanni, the Greens' security policy spokesperson, in an interview with DW. "I don't think anyone in Moscow is afraid or giving it a second thought right now."

As an example, she said Germany should be taking tougher action against the Russian shadow fleet. This would be necessary to "stop the flow of money to the Russian war machine," she said.

Roderich Kiesewetter, security expert with Chancellor Merz' center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is also dissatisfied. In the Handelsblatt newspaper, he called for the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine — and for the activation of Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which requires allies to engage into consultations in the event of an external threat.

He urged the German government to abandon "the politically convenient path of appeasement."

However, wouldn't responding more assertively, as Kiesewetter demands, risk provoking a military confrontation with Russia, especially given that Russia flatly denies responsibility for the Leipzig incident?

President Vladimir Putin called the German sanctions against his country a "serious mistake" and accused Germany of fabricating evidence. The Foreign Ministry in Moscow announced that it would take countermeasures.

Foreign Minister Wadephul sees Germany as a target

Once again, the question of whether Germany is already at war with Russia is being raised — and this time with even greater urgency. But the federal government has unequivocally denied it.

"We are not at war, but we are the daily target of hybrid warfare," said Interior Minister Dobrindt on Tuesday, after he blamed Russia for the failed attack.

Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told German public broadcaster ARD that Germany is not at war but is a Russian "war target."

A year ago, in September 2025, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said — though without naming Russia: "We are not at war, but we are no longer at peace either."

This came against the backdrop of increasing attacks on data networks, critical infrastructure and hybrid threats.

Security expert Sönke Marahrens from the University of Kiel offered a more nuanced answer: "No, Germany is not at war at the moment. We are facing hybrid activities by other countries, but we are not at war."

In Western countries, he noted, declarations of war are regulated by law. And in Germany, according to the constitution, the Bundestag must declare that the country is at war, and that applies only after a physical attack.

"Nothing currently meets that definition," he said.

However, Green Party lawmaker Sara Nanni fears that Russia will continue to escalate the situation.

"We are not yet at war with Russia, but Russia appears to be preparing for a war not only against Ukraine but against all of Europe," she told DW, calling the incident in Leipzig an "attempted terrorist act."

Not at war with Russia

From a legal standpoint, too, Germany is not at war with Russia. No declaration of war has been made, no recognized armed conflict exists, and no collective defense obligation has been invoked under Article 5. Furthermore, consultations among NATO members, which must take place before a collective defense obligation can be invoked, have not been scheduled under Article 4.

But things look different when it comes to hybrid warfare, which is not as precisely defined. Numerous security experts argue that Russia is already waging just such a hybrid war against Western nations. This refers to attacks on infrastructure, cyberattacks, disinformation and traditional espionage.

However, the line between hybrid war and an open act of war are blurry. Sönke Marahrens believes that Russia is using hybrid actions — such as the one in Leipzig — to advance its strategic interests in Germany, the second-most important supporter of Ukraine after the US. Had the attack at the airport been successful, it would have relieved pressure on the Russian front, Marahrens says.

He went on to say that, "if Russia succeeds in convincing the German public not to support these political decisions [to support Ukraine], that would also directly reduce the pressure on the front lines."

The AfD factor and the Saxony-Anhalt election

The state elections coming up on Sunday in Saxony-Anhalt are one current example of Russian strategic interests. Many observers believe that this election is the most important in Germany in decades. The key question is whether the Alternative for Germany (AfD) — which is classified as far-right by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Germany's domestic intelligence agency — will secure an absolute majority and, for the first time, govern a German state.

The AfD opposes further military support for Ukraine and would like to normalize relations with Russia. This resonates with many in eastern Germany, where the war in Ukraine is seen by many as none of Germany's business, and where there is a feeling that too much money has already been sent to Ukraine.

This is why the federal government — composed of the conservate CDU/CSU bloc and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) — is being careful about stepping up its rhetoric, as doing so could potentially help the AfD secure an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt. On the other hand, it can hardly afford to place the blame for the events in Leipzig on Russia while also responding in only a relatively mild manner.

This dilemma may also be the reason why Chancellor Merz has so far refrained from speaking out to blame Russia.

This article was translated from German.