In the fourth winter of Russia's war of aggression, Ukraine's energy infrastructure has already been severely damaged. Now, its resilience is being further tested by a new wave of missile strikes. Russian forces have intensified their attack, targeting thermal power plants and substations at nuclear power plants.

In a major strike on the night of November 8, Russia hit the substations of the Khmelnytskyi and Rivne nuclear power plants. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha spoke of precisely planned attacks. Both nuclear power plants had to reduce their electricity production, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on social media platform X.

Intense attacks on nuclear power plants reflect new tactic

Volodymyr Omelchenko, energy expert at the Razumkov Research Center in Kyiv, describes a trend of hybrid attacks on nuclear power plants. "The aim is not only to interrupt the power supply in the affected regions, but also to destroy nuclear energy, the basis of the Ukrainian energy system," he said.

"As long as the nine Ukrainian nuclear power plants are running, our energy system cannot be damaged; it continues to function. That is why the Russians have taken the final step and are carrying out hybrid attacks on nuclear power plants."

Meanwhile, recent strikes on Ukrainian nuclear power plant substations are less focused on disrupting the power supply to consumers, Omelchenko told DW.

Instead, Russia wants a critical situation to develop at the reactors themselves. When a substation is attacked, the nuclear power plant cannot feed electricity into the grid and the reactor block must be immediately switched to emergency mode. This poses a risk to the reactor, as it cannot be shut down quickly. As Omelchenko points out, safety protocols do not include procedures for attacks on nuclear power plant infrastructure — largely because no one in the world expected this to happen.

Russia hit a Ukrainian nuclear power plant's substation back in November 2022, causing a short blackout. Three years on, Russia still tries to trigger power outages in Ukraine, in its bid to break the power grid into isolated energy islands.

This time, however, the Russian army has altered its tactics. Experts point out that the latest attacks put intense pressure on a single facility.

"First, the Russians deploy Shahed drones and then five to seven ballistic missiles against a target. The concrete protective structures that have been erected can withstand Kalibr missiles, but are powerless against Russian Kinzhal and Iskander missiles," warns Olha Kosharna, nuclear expert and former board member of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate, in an interview with DW.

In addition, she said, the reality on the ground has been exacerbated by the widespread destruction of power plants, substations, and transmission systems.

Growing risk of lengthy power outages

"Unlike in 2022, when the power grid was restored within 14 hours thanks to higher generation capacities and an extensive network, the situation is now completely different," said Kosharna. "Almost all power generation east of the Dnipro River has been destroyed, including the Zimiiv, Kharkiv-5, and Chernihiv thermal power plants. The Vuhledar thermal power plant is located in Russian-occupied territory. Hydroelectric and thermal power plants across the country have been damaged, including the Dobrotvir, Burshtyn, and Ladyzhyn plants."

Russia is deliberately striking where it can cause maximum, long-term damage to Ukraine, says Victoria Voytsitska, former member of the parliamentary committee on energy and nuclear safety and member of the supervisory board of the think tank We Build Ukraine. "This is clearly shown by the attacks on the Trypilska thermal power plant to cut off power to Kyiv and the surrounding region during peak hours in the morning and evening. As well as the attacks on the Kyiv substation, without which the supply of electricity from the Rivne nuclear power plant, the city's main source of energy, cannot be guaranteed," Voytsitska posted on Facebook, adding that this winter it will be harder to supply electricity and heat to Kyiv.

In the wake of Russia's recent strikes on nuclear facilities, Olena Pavlenko, head of the DiXi Group think tank, is calling for high-level consultations with international partners to help Ukraine get through the winter.

What can be done to prevent blackouts in Ukraine?

In the meantime, Ukraine calls on all countries, especially China and India, to urge Russia to halt attacks on nuclear power plants. "Global pressure is needed to force Moscow to end its nuclear blackmail," Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has said. Ukraine also seeks an emergency meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Council to respond to the "unacceptable risks" posed by Russia's shelling of Ukraine's nuclear infrastructure.

IAEA director general Rafael Grossi struck a more cautious note in his statement: "Substations are critical for our efforts to maintain nuclear safety and security during the war. Their continued degradation is a deep source of concern in this regard. I continue to call for maximum military restraint in order to maintain nuclear safety and avoid an accident with serious radiological consequences," he said.

Some experts are urging Ukrainian diplomats abroad to directly highlight the imminent danger Russian attacks pose to Ukrainian nuclear power plants. "We must preserve nuclear energy at all costs, strengthen air defense over important substations that supply power to nuclear power plants, and ask our partners to provide air defense systems such as Patriot to protect these substations," says Volodymyr Omelchenko. "This is necessary not only for Ukraine but for all of Europe, after all, a nuclear accident would have repercussions throughout Europe."

This article was originally published in Ukrainian.