Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. After the army's initial rapid advances, Ukrainian troops were able to fend off the attackers, particularly in the northern border regions. In the south, Ukraine was also able to push the Russian army back behind the Dnipro, the country's largest river. By the summer of 2024, troops were even able to launch an incursion into Russian territory in the Kursk region. Ukraine's army has received support from paramilitary groups.

Large parts of eastern Ukraine — particularly in the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — remain under Russia's control, however, as does the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed and occupied in March 2024. In effect, the frontlines have barely moved in two years and a war of attrition has set in.

Millions displaced

According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), the war in Ukraine has triggered one of the biggest displacement crises in the world. More than 10 million Ukrainians have been displaced, with 6.7 million finding refuge in other European countries. Another 400,000 arrived in the first six months of 2024 alone. There are 4 million people who are displaced within Ukraine. Since August of this year, 170,000 people have left their homes in the east of the country.  At a press conference in Geneva on November, 12, UN Deputy High Commissioner for Refugees Kelly T. Clements said that "countless children continue their studies online, missing out on social interaction and classroom experiences."

The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) says the overall humanitarian situation in Ukraine has deteriorated dramatically since February 2022. According to the UN, about 40% of Ukraine's population is dependent on humanitarian aid. Earlier this year, the OCHA and UNHCR launched an appeal for $4.2 billion (€4 billion) to support war-affected communities in Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees.

Russia's resilient economy

The European Union and other allies of Ukraine imposed far-reaching economic sanctions on Russia after its full-blown invasion. The sanctions have been manageable, however.  After a temporary decline in 2022, Russia's GDP recovered quickly as the country switched to a war economy; also thanks to support from China. Russia's national currency, the ruble, recovered after slumping to a record low.

One of the reasons for the recovery is that the extensive blockade on imports of fossil fuels — such as natural gas, oil and coal — from Russia has largely failed to achieve the goal of drastically reducing Moscow's export revenues. Russia's state-owned corporations have found grateful customers for their raw materials in China and India, as well as other countries. There are also some indications that, via third countries, these are also landing in the EU despite the embargo. The temporary rise in the price of natural gas means that Russia's losses have been more contained than the states that imposed the sanctions would have liked.

Ukrainian receives millions

The European Union and NATO have not only supported Ukraine through sanctions against Russia. The Ukrainian government has received financial and humanitarian aid. The US is by far the greatest sole contributor: Between February 24, 2022, and August 2024, it provided almost €85 billion, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in northern Germany. The EU and its member states provided just over €100 billion. Britain and Canada are also major donors. 

But Donald Trump, now the US president-elect, said during his campaign that he would drastically reduce aid to Ukraine if he won.

Ukraine will only be able to continue defending itself against Russia if its other supporters increase their support massively.

This article was originally written in German.