An expert on Saudi Arabia and the Middle East, Guido Steinberg explains to DW that the drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities last week were partly a manifestation of complex religious and historical forces.
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As Saudi Arabia and its close allies, including the US, look for an appropriate response to drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities in early September, what expert Guido Steinberg calls a Gulf cold war is becoming a hot war. But what are the deeper historical and religious forces that have put Saudi Arabia at the fulcrum of heightened tensions in the Gulf?
Steinberg, a senior associate for the Middle East division of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, is synthesizing some of his decades of study on Saudi Arabia into a new book — working title: Cold War in the Gulf. An attempt to understand impenetrable Saudi power structures, Steinberg explores the country's 250-year history via three key themes: Wahhabi religious scholarship, oil, and the Saudi ruling family.
It is perhaps not widely known that the extremist ideology of the Islamic State was greatly inspired by the radical Wahhabi teachings that emerged from Saudi Arabia — including hatred of Shiite Muslims and the destruction of their tombs. Saudi Arabia is the nation where Mecca is located and also where Al Qaeda was born.
"Many IS leaders and many of the preachers who have promoted ISIS in Europe studied at the Islamic University of Medina, the Wahhabi Mission Center," Steinberg told DW. Islamic propagandists have increasingly promoted Wahhabism, and its purist offshoot, Salafism, as the one true form of Islam.
"Today, many Turkish Muslims in Germany believe that Islam means going to the mosque five times a day, and many parts of the doctrine that originated in Saudi Arabia are suddenly seen as belonging to the mainstream," Steinberg said. Such a doctrinaire form of Islam is often incompatible with other religious minorities or with broader secular society.
But after Saudi Arabia began producing oil in 1938 and eventually became the world's largest oil exporter, the once monolithic power of the Wahhabi scholars was gradually challenged.
The burning issue
Following the 1973 OPEC oil crisis, crude prices rose sharply and Saudi Arabia, now extremely wealthy, underwent rapid modernization. At the same time, "the geopolitical focus shifted after 1973 from Cairo to Dubai, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi," said Steinberg.
But radical Wahhabi scholars rebelled against the introduction of modern infrastructure and culture, and in 1979 and demanded a return to the old society. They wanted mud huts instead of skyscrapers. The tension continued as the price of oil dropped in the 90s and the Saudi Arabian economy almost collapsed. Saudis could no longer finance their households, and their oil-generated benefits had to cease. It was one of the reasons for the emergence of Al-Qaeda, Steinberg said.
Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia's dependence on oil is unbroken until today. The Saudi state receives 90% of its income from the state-owned Saudi-Aramco, the world's largest oil-producing group. Such reliance makes the Gulf nation extremely vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. Reforms are needed in the long term, as is recognized by Saudi Arabia's new strongman, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Prices for crude oil are reaching new lows almost daily due to oversupply and unease over the global economy. Some countries have been hit harder than others.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/W. Hong
A great, big hangover
Even Norway isn't immune to the falling price of oil. For years, the wealthy Scandinavian nation had fueled its rapid growth with the oil it pumped out of the North Sea. But what once transformed a poor agrarian state into one of the richest countries in the world now has policymakers wondering if it wouldn't be wiser to allocate more resources to Norway's fishing industry.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/O. Hagen
Double trouble
For Russia, the falling price of oil has added insult to injury as its economy is already reeling under Western sanctions. In 2015, economic output in the country shrunk by around 4 percent. As a result, salaries have dropped and the ruble has lost half of its value against the dollar. The news service Bloomberg estimates that 2016 will be another recessionary year for Russia.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/A. Druzhinin
An uncertain future
Nigeria is Africa's largest producer of oil. Before being elected president, Muhammadu Buhari announced that he would increase government spending - but the drop in the price of oil may make that promise impossible to fulfill. The World Bank estimates that three-quarters of the Nigerian state's revenues come from the oil business. Many infrastructure projects are currently on hold.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
New realities
Nigeria's not the only country that calculates its budget based on the price of oil staying high. The result has been a big gap between expected and actual revenues. The price for a barrel of oil has dropped by nearly 75 percent since mid-2014. Many experts currently have little reason to believe the per-barrel price will return to its old level of $120 (110.76 euros) anytime soon.
After sanctions
Now that sanctions against Iranian exporters have been lifted, the Islamic Republic plans to ramp up its oil production by half a million barrels a day - putting further pressure on an already oversupplied energy market. Iran, for its part, blames its archrival Saudi Arabia for falling oil prices.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Taherkenareh
Less giving, more taking
Saudi Arabia has refused to curb oil output in order to protect its market share from competition from the US fracking industry and Iran. But now, even the world's largest oil exporter is starting to get a taste of its own medicine. The International Monetary Fund is warning about a massive impending budget deficit. The Saudis want to introduce taxes and slash energy and food subsidies.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/P. Grimm
How long will reserves last?
Like their Saudi counterparts, other oil-rich Gulf statessuch as Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates are also watching their energy reserves dwindle. These regional powers all boast large sovereign wealth funds - but altogether, the six Gulf states have already accumulated a budget deficit worth $260 billion (239.8 billion euros), according to estimates by JP Morgan Chase.
Image: M. Naamani//AFP/Getty Images
Winds of change in Venezuela?
Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world. For years, the country's socialist government used revenues from the sale of oil to fund its lavish social programs. Now, President Nicolas Maduro has declared a state of emergency for the Venezuelan economy. Popular support for the successor to Hugo Chavez has been slipping for about a year - about as quickly as the price of oil has dropped.
Image: Reuters
What now?
Thanks to a boost in shale gas extraction, aka fracking, the US is now the world's largest energy producer. Low oil prices, however, have made fracking widely unprofitable. The US is also one of the largest consumers of energy in the world. While motorists may celebrate having to spend less money at the pump, bigger, gas-guzzling vehicles are gaining in popularity - bad news for the environment.
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The ruling family
Central to the question of reform is gauging the actual power of the comparatively young Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. "The character of Saudi Arabian authoritarianism has changed," said Steinberg. "An oligarchy dominated the country between the 1970s and 2015. Today, you only need to know two people who can make decisions."
The Middle East expert is referring to the autocratic duo King Salman (Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud) of Saudi Arabia, born in 1936 and currently suffering from ill health; and the active head of the Saudi government, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, born in 1985.
"After the Khashoggi murder, there was a brief hope that [their power] would be weakened," said Steinberg, referring to the murder of the US-based Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October, 2018. "But that does not seem to be the case."
According to Steinberg, reforms and authoritarianism are no contradiction for bin Salman. "A few years ago in Saudi Arabia, it was easy to criticize government policy. There were two taboos: religion and rulers. You could happily have constructive policy discussions. Today, you have to expect that you will land in prison for very, very weak criticism."
Can Mohammed bin Salman still succeed as a reformer?
And yet Salman may still be seen as a source of hope for the younger Saudi generation, even after the Khashoggi murder that his government allegedly ordered.
Steinberg said that the current regime has been willing to liberalize some aspects of Saudi society, including allowing women to drive cars, and to travel without the permission of a male guardian such as father or husband. Such reforms "give him support," Steinberg said of a leader who is said to be slowly breaking down an ossified system. "I believe that he really has the chance to become a great reformer, if he is economically successful," Steinberg added.
And Iran?
While Germany, Britain and France agreed this week that Iran was behind the attack on Saudi oil facilities in early September and called on Tehran to avoid further "provocation," Steinberg is unwilling to apportion blame. Instead, he has tried to understand how the situation has presented itself from the perspective of many cosmopolitan Saudis.
According to Steinberg, these Saudis have complained that the Iranians were now ruling four capitals: Baghdad, where Iranian influence is very strong; the Syrian capital Damascus, where Iranian militias have kept Bashar al-Assad in power; Beirut, which is controlled by Iranian-backed Hezbollah; and Saana in Yemen.
Paradoxically, Iranian influence has increased dramatically as a result of US intervention in Iraq, with the ousting of Saddam Hussein having destabilized the region.
"On the other hand, we see new alliances that we have not thought possible," Steinberg noted. "Saudi Arabia and Israel have a nearly identical Iranian policy."
Guido Steinberg is senior associate and member of the Middle East and Africa Research Group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. From 2001 to 2005 he worked as an expert on international terrorism in the German Federal Chancellery. He talked about Saudi Arabia as part of the International Literature Festival Berlin.
Women's rights in Saudi Arabia: A timeline
In recent years, Saudi Arabia has lifted its driving ban on women and made other strides toward granting women equal rights. But progress is incredibly slow, and lags far behind the rest of the world.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/H. Ammar
1955: First school for girls, 1970: First university for women
Girls have not always been able to go to school like these students in Riyadh. Enrollment at the first school for girls, Dar Al Hanan, began in 1955. The Riyadh College of Education, the first higher education institution for women, opened in 1970.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/F. Nureldine
2001: ID cards for women
At the start of the 21st century, women could get personal ID cards for the first time. The cards are the only way for them to prove who they are, for example in disputes relating to inheritance or property issues. IDs were only issued with the permission of a woman's guardian, though, and to the guardian instead of directly to the woman. Only in 2006 were women able to get IDs without permission.
Image: Getty Images/J. Pix
2005: End of forced marriages - on paper
Saudi Arabia banned forced marriage in 2005, but marriage contracts continue to be hammered out between the husband-to-be and the father of the bride, not the bride herself.
Image: Getty Images/A.Hilabi
2009: The first female government minister
In 2009, King Abdullah appointed the first female minister to Saudi Arabia's government. Noura al-Fayez became the deputy education minister for women's affairs.
Image: Foreign and Commonwealth Office
2012: First female Olympic athletes
Saudi Arabia agreed to allow female athletes to compete on the national team for the Olympics for the first time. One of them was Sarah Attar, who ran the women's 800 meter race at the 2012 Olympics in London wearing a headscarf. Before the Games, there was speculation that the Saudi Arabian team might be banned for gender discrimination if they didn't allow women to participate.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/J.-G.Mabanglo
2013: Women are allowed to ride bicycles and motorbikes
Saudi leaders allowed women to ride bicycles and motorbikes for the first time in 2013 — but only in recreational areas, wearing full Islamic body covering and with a male relative present.
Image: Getty Images/AFP
2013: First women in the Shura
In February 2013, King Abdullah swore in the first 30 women to the Shura, Saudi Arabia's consultative council. This allowed women to be appointed to these positions, soon they would be allowed to actually run for office...
Image: REUTERS/Saudi TV/Handout
2015: Women can vote and get elected
In Saudi Arabia's 2015 municipal elections, women were able to vote and run for office for the first time. By contrast, New Zealand was the first country to give women the vote, in 1893. Germany did so in 1919. At the 2015 Saudi polls, 20 women were elected to municipal roles in the absolute monarchy.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Batrawy
2017: First female head of the Saudi stock exchange
In February 2017, the Saudi stock exchange names the first female chairperson in its history, Sarah Al Suhaimi.
Image: pictur- alliance/abaca/Balkis Press
2018: Women to be allowed in sports stadiums
On October 29, 2017, the country's General Sports Authority announced that women would be allowed into sports stadiums for the first time. Three previously male-only arenas will soon be open for women as well, starting in early 2018.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/F. Nureldine
2018: Driving ban eliminated
On September 26, 2017, Saudi Arabia announced that women would soon be allowed to drive, causing a flurry of driving courses for women to prepare for June 2018, when they would no longer need permission from their male guardian to get a driver's license or need their guardian in the car when they drive.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/H. Jamali
2019: Saudi women to be notified by text message if they are divorced
The new law, designed to protect them from having their marriage ended without their knowledge, will allow women to check their marital status online or visit a court to get a copy of divorce papers. Human rights defenders say the law does nothing to address the fact that Saudi women can only obtain divorces in exceedingly limited cases — such as with her husband’s consent or if he has harmed her.