Only 1.6 million eligible voters are called to choose a new state parliament in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday. The region between the Elbe River and Harz Mountains in eastern Germany is outnumbered in population by 10 of Germany's total 16 federal states.

Nonetheless, the vote has become a major challenge for the federal government coalition of the conservative Union — of the Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) — and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). In the last few months, there were even rumors in Berlin that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz of the CDU could step down following this vote — or that he would be forced to by his own party.

This is because the in-part right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party leads the polls in Saxony-Anhalt, far ahead of the centrist parties governing at the federal level, the CDU and SPD. Even an absolute majority for the right-wing populists cannot be ruled out. If that came to pass, the election would have serious consequences for the federal government in Berlin.

A threat to Chancellor Friedrich Merz?

Political scientist Carsten Koschmieder from the Free University in Berlin does not believe Merz will give up.

"I do not have the impression that he is a person who would resign," Koschmieder told DW. "Rather, he is very glad to be chancellor and has long worked toward that." In addition, there is currently no ready successor to Merz in the CDU and CSU, he added.

An absolute majority for the AfD could, however, plunge the governing coalition in Berlin into crisis, Koschmieder said. It would also intensify pressure regarding the correct way to deal with the AfD, which is in parts right-wing extremist.

Before he was elected chancellor in May 2025, Merz set the goal of halving support for the AfD, in part by adopting a tough migration policy. The fact that this has not succeeded, and instead the CDU has lost support, has yielded him much criticism within his party. His Union of the CDU and CSU has categorically ruled out working with the AfD, as have all other established German political parties.

Could a CDU government get support from the Left Party?

It's also possible that the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt ends up forming a minority government with the SPD and the environmentalist Greens. But even such a three-way coalition is unlikely to have a majority in parliament.

This would mean it has to be tolerated, ironically, by the socialist Left Party. Ironic, because the CDU also wants to avoid any cooperation with the Left, as the chancellor reiterated in an interview with regional newspaper the Mitteldeutsche Zeitung: "Both the AfD and Left Party have such fundamental differences with the Union that cooperation is out of the question," Merz said on Tuesday.

Here, Koschmieder said, a double problem arises for Merz: Many local-level CDU politicians, especially in eastern Germany, consider cooperation with the AfD quite possible, and have categorically rejected working with the Left Party.

But many other conservative politicians fear the opposite: that engaging with the right-wing populists would massively damage the CDU/CSU. "There are many conservative democrats in the CDU who say: We have nothing to do with the AfD. They want to abolish our democracy; they support Russia's President Putin and oppose Western integration and European unity," Koschmieder explained.

Merz: Government stability not at risk

In other words: It is mainly for the chancellor's party that the election result in Saxony-Anhalt could become a crucial test. Merz has already identified this issue, and has made recent calls for calm. 

"Outsiders are trying to drive a wedge into the Union. The result of a state parliament election does not endanger the stability of the federal government," he told the Mitteldeutsche Zeitung.

The chancellor seems resolved to carry on with his government, even amid growing dissatisfaction and rising pressure. This year, he still plans to bring his controversial reforms of the old age pension system through parliament, which have been heavily criticized by members of his own party on the campaign trail in Saxony-Anhalt.

But that hasn't discouraged Merz. "The pension system is no longer sustainable because of demographics, and we have known this for years," he said.

AfD state government feared to be a security risk

Political scientist Koschmieder also thinks many CDU politicians at the state level will continue their criticism of the pension reform plans, but he added: "I do not think they will completely fail, but there will be amendments in some places."

Pressure from his own party, problems with upcoming reforms — all of this could be in store for the chancellor. And that's not all: Interior policy and security experts at the federal and state levels have warned of high risks if a possible AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt has access to sensitive data — when it comes to counterintelligence, for example.

Georg Maier, the SPD interior minister in the eastern state of Thuringia, told German media outlet RND: "If an AfD politician becomes the interior minister of Saxony-Anhalt, that would be in my view a glaring security risk for Germany."

SPD hopes for success in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

What about the Social Democrats? A possible result of 8% or 9% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, as recently calculated by pollsters, sounds terribly low, but it would be a great improvement on what was being predicted six months ago.

In addition, the Social Democrat premier of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Manuela Schwesig, has good odds of a renewed mandate in state parliament elections there on September 20. The SPD has made a strong comeback in the polls in the coastal state since last year; with around 30% of the vote, they could form a government with the Left Party, the CDU or potentially both.

But also here, in northeastern Germany, the AfD is the strongest polling party, at around 35%.

This article was originally written in German.