When Scottish voters rejected independence in 2014, it was seen as the smart economic move. Brexit may have ripped up that logic. With a second independence referendum possible, new questions are being asked of voters.
That's captured in a video taken a week after the vote of then British Prime Minister David Cameron walking with former New York Mayor (and current US presidential candidate) Michael Bloomberg. Unaware he can be heard, Cameron coos over being able to call the Queen to tell her Scottish independence had been defeated.
"The definition of relief is being prime minister of the United Kingdom and ringing the Queen and saying 'it's alright, it's OK,'" Cameron says. "That was something. She purred down the line."
Today, Cameron is little more than an internet meme. His reputation was shattered by the result of another referendum, the 2016 Brexit vote. His time as prime minister is of another epoch.
Next month, the UK will leave the European Union. Everything thereafter is uncertain. With the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) emboldened by its performance in the UK election, demands for a second independence referendum are growing louder.
Last time, arguments about the viability of an independent Scottish economy helped consign the Yes side to a 55%-45% defeat. Would that argument work were a second vote to take place?
One gamble, or two?
Before the 2014 vote, 55 economists based in various British universities wrote an open letter to the Financial Times warning Scottish voters of "the major economic risks that separation entails."
"Separation is a gamble with very poor odds. The downside risks for current and future generations are huge," the letter read.
"Scottish independence would still be a gamble, but so is Brexit and the choice is now between two gambles with most likely unfavorable outcomes," he said.
Some co-signatories believe the arguments of 2014 remain valid. Ronald MacDonald, a professor of macroeconomics at the University of Glasgow, still believes massive austerity packages would be needed after Scottish independence to offset what would be a large fiscal deficit.
Robert Zymek, an economics lecturer at the University of Edinburgh, also supported the letter. He says the political situation has shifted so much that a successful vote for independence is now much more likely.
However, he believes that Brexit has created even more economic uncertainty over what an independent Scotland would look like, given that he expects the future UK-EU relationship to involve an increase in barriers to trade.
"Scotland's choice is: Would we like to be inside the UK and accept new barriers to EU trade, or, become independent and as a possible EU member enjoy free trade with the EU but have higher barriers to trade with the rest of the UK?" he told DW.
Andrew Wilson is an economist and former SNP member of the Scottish Parliament who chaired the Sustainable Growth Commission (SGC), which wrote an economic plan for Scottish independence for the SNP in 2018. He agrees Brexit has added to the complexity of the campaign for Scottish independence, but says that the long-term view points toward a need for sovereignty.
"It is probably the case that the challenges of transition back into the EU will be greater in the event of a harder Brexit because of our overdependence on trade with the rest of the UK," he told DW.
"That said, our choice is really do we lock in that suboptimal underperformance, or do we seek to do far better in far bigger markets longer term. Ireland's experience in the last 50 years is instructive. In my view, we must make a choice about where our future lies and work purposefully to get there while managing the transitionary challenges. That means early EU membership."
Scottish independence advocates say future EU membership is critical to their plansImage: picture-alliance/J. Heeneman
Leaving one union to rejoin another
Future EU membership is the basis of an independent Scotland, says Wilson. It is "of central importance to our future," and "critically important for us to grow and diversify our export base" , he says. "We will offer the antithesis of Brexit. Our prospectus will be detailed and honest. It will not claim it will be easy, it will be an effort but it will be worth it," he said.
Arguably the biggest question over an independent Scottish economy relates to its currency and monetary policy. The SGC report advocated that Scotland use the British pound indefinitely without a formal deal. Wilson told DW this was "to protect the interests of everyone and our own economy" but that Scotland would move to use its own currency as soon as possible.
"Our report said five to ten years but it might come more quickly or it might take longer depending on the prevailing circumstances," he told DW.
Zymek has his doubts. He believes Scotland's hopes of re-joining the EU after a vote for independence would hinge on its willingness to join the euro.
"The question that the SNP hasn't really answered is would it be happy for Scotland to adopt the euro," he said. "And if not and if the new currency was not the euro, what reasons are there to think that the EU would be happy to accept that?"
Bleak December winds ensuing
For economists like Ewald, what was a clear situation in 2014 has become deeply muddled by Brexit.
"Brexit has created a mess for Scotland and there is no easy solution," he says. He agrees with the SNP that a new independence referendum is justified and appropriate.
While in 2014, the remain side was able to argue that the economically prudent thing to do was to vote against independence, that is arguably no longer the case given the deep economic uncertainty over Brexit. On top of that, it is doubtful if arguments over economics hold any weight anymore according to Zymek.
"The whole idea of economic expertise was a little bit delegitimized in the Brexit referendum," he said. "If a bunch of economists came out and said 'the economics of Scottish independence are really bad,' people would just groan and roll their eyes."
If and when a new referendum happens remains unclear. But what is clear is that the choice facing Scottish voters has shifted dramatically. What was a choice between the status quo and a risky roll of the dice in 2014 has effectively become a choice between two risky rolls of the dice, one being Brexit and the other being independence. The economics of both can only be uncertain at this point.
It could yet all end up with a very different phone call being made to the Queen one day.
Brexit timeline: Charting Britain's turbulent exodus from Europe
Britain shocked the world when it voted to leave the European Union on June 24, 2016. DW traces the major events that have defined Brexit so far.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/Y. Mok
June 2016: 'The will of the British people'
After a shrill referendum campaign, nearly 52% of British voters opted to leave the EU on June 23. Polls had shown a close race before the vote with a slight lead for those favoring remaining in the EU. Conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron, who had campaigned for Britain to stay, acknowledged the "will of the British people" and resigned the following morning.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Rain
July 2016: 'Brexit means Brexit'
Former Home Secretary Theresa May replaced David Cameron as prime minister on July 11 and promised the country that "Brexit means Brexit." May had quietly supported the Remain campaign before the referendum. She did not initially say when her government would trigger Article 50 of the EU treaty to start the two-year talks leading to Britain's formal exit.
Image: Reuters/D. Lipinski
March 2017: 'We already miss you'
May eventually signed a diplomatic letter over six months later on March 29, 2017 to trigger Article 50. Hours later, Britain's ambassador to the EU, Tim Barrow, handed the note to European Council President Donald Tusk. Britain's exit was officially set for March 29, 2019. Tusk ended his brief statement on the decision with: "We already miss you. Thank you and goodbye."
Image: picture alliance / Photoshot
June 2017: And they're off!
British Brexit Secretary David Davis and the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, kicked off talks in Brussels on June 19. The first round ended with Britain reluctantly agreeing to follow the EU's timeline for the rest of the negotiations. The timeline split talks into two phases. The first would settle the terms of Britain's exit, and the second the terms of the EU-UK relationship post-Brexit.
Image: picture alliance/ZUMAPRESS.com/W. Daboski
July-October 2017: Money, rights and Ireland
The second round of talks in mid-July began with an unflattering photo of a seemingly unprepared British team. It and subsequent rounds ended with little progress on three phase one issues: How much Britain still needed to pay into the EU budget after it leaves, the post-Brexit rights of EU and British citizens and whether Britain could keep an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
Image: Getty Images/T.Charlier
December 2017: Go-ahead for phase 2
Leaders of the remaining 27 EU members formally agreed that "sufficient progress" had been made to move on to phase two issues: the post-Brexit transition period and the future UK-EU trading relationship. While Prime Minister Theresa May expressed her delight at the decision, European Council President Tusk ominously warned that the second stage of talks would be "dramatically difficult."
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/dpa/O. Matthys
July 2018: Johnson, Davis resign
British ministers appeared to back a Brexit plan at May's Chequers residence on July 6. The proposal would have kept Britain in a "combined customs territory" with the EU and signed up to a "common rulebook" on all goods. That went too far for British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Brexit Secretary David Davis, who resigned a few days later. May replaced them with Jeremy Hunt and Dominic Raab.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/G. Fuller
September 2018: No cherries for Britain
May's Chequers proposal did not go down well with EU leaders, who told her at a summit in Salzburg in late September that it was unacceptable. EU Council President Tusk trolled May on Instagram, captioning a picture of himself and May looking at cakes with the line: "A piece of cake perhaps? Sorry, no cherries." The gag echoed previous EU accusations of British cherry-picking.
Image: Reuters/P. Nicholls
November 2018: Breakthrough in Brussels
EU leaders endorsed a 585-page draft divorce deal and political declaration on post-Brexit ties in late November. The draft had been widely condemned by pro- and anti-Brexit lawmakers in the British Parliament only weeks earlier. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned along with several other ministers, and dozens of Conservative Party members tried to trigger a no-confidence vote in May.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Dunand
December 2018: May survives rebellion
In the face of unrelenting opposition, May postponed a parliamentary vote on the deal on December 10. The next day, she met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to seek reassurances that would, she hoped, be enough to convince skeptical lawmakers to back the deal. But while she was away, hard-line Conservative lawmakers triggered a no-confidence vote. May won the vote a day later.
Image: Getty Images/S. Gallup
January 2019: Agreement voted down
The UK Parliament voted 432 to 202 against May's Brexit deal on January 16. In response to the result, European Council President Donald Tusk suggested the only solution was for the UK to stay in the EU. Meanwhile, Britain's Labour Party called for a no-confidence vote in the prime minister, her second leadership challenge in as many months.
Image: Reuters
March 2019: Second defeat for May's deal
May tried to get legal changes to the deal's so-called Irish backstop in the weeks that followed. She eventually got assurances that the UK could suspend the backstop under certain circumstances. But on March 12, Parliament voted against the revised Brexit deal by 391 to 242. EU leaders warned the vote increased the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. Two days later, MPs voted to delay Brexit.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/T. Ireland
March 2019: Extension after second defeat
Following the second defeat of May's divorce deal, the European Council met in Brussels on March 21 to decide what to do next. EU leaders gave May two options: delay Brexit until May 22 if MPs vote for the withdrawal deal or delay it until April 12 if they vote against the deal. If the deal were to fail again in Parliament, May could ask for a long extension.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Augstein
March 2019: Brexit deal rejected a third time
On March 29, the day that the UK was supposed to leave the EU, British lawmakers voted for a third time against May's deal — rejecting it this time with a vote of 344 to 286. Following the latest defeat, May approached the main opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in an attempt to find a compromise, angering hardline Brexiteers in her own Conservative party.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/House of Commons/M. Duffy
April 2019: Brexit delayed until Halloween
With the April 12 deadline looming after the third defeat of May's deal, EU leaders met again in Brussels to discuss a second delay. The only question was how long should it be? In the end, the UK and EU agreed to a "flexible" extension until October 31 — which can end sooner if the Brexit deal is approved. The UK had to take part in EU elections in May because their exit wasn't secured in time.
Image: Reuters/E. Plevier
May 2019: Prime Minister Theresa May resigns
Weeks of talks between Prime Minister Theresa May and the Labour party to reach a deal proved unsuccessful and further eroded her political capital. She triggered an angry backlash from her party after she tried to put the option of a second referendum on the table. The series of failures led May to announce her resignation, effective June 7, in an emotional address.
Image: Reuters/H. McKay
June 2019: Search for a new prime minister
After Theresa May announced on June 7 that she would leave office, other members of her Conservative party began clamoring for the top job. Within a month, the leadership battle came down to Jeremy Hunt (left), an EU proponent who fears a no-deal scenario, and Boris Johnson (right), one of the main proponents of Brexit.
July 2019: Prime Minister Boris Johnson
At the end of July 2019, Johnson was officially named Theresa May's successor as British prime minister. "We are going to energize the country, we are going to get Brexit done by October 31," he said after he was elected leader of the Conservative Party.
Image: Imago Images/Zuma/G. C. Wright
September 2019: Johnson's election threat
Conservative rebels and opposition MPs backed efforts to delay an October 31 Brexit deadline in fear of a no-deal departure. In response, Johnson called for a general election, saying his government cannot rule without a mandate after he stripped 21 rebel MPs of their Conservative status. The Labour Party said it would not back elections until legislation to block a no-deal Brexit was in place.
In late September, Britain's highest court ruled that Johnson's decision to suspend Parliament ahead of the UK's planned exit was unlawful. "This was not a normal prorogation in the run-up to a Queen's Speech," said the Supreme Court. Political rivals immediately called on Johnson to leave his post. Johnson said he would abide by the court ruling, though said he "strongly" disagreed.
Image: Reuters/H. Nicholls
October 2019: A new deal
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to secure a deal with European negotiators that would allow the UK to leave the EU in an orderly manner. The deal received unanimous backing from the leaders of 27 other member states. But an attempt to get the UK Parliament to sign off on the deal failed. Instead, Parliament pushed for the Brexit deadline to be extended until the end of January 2020.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Augstein
December 2019: Lawmakers vote for Johnson's Withdrawal Bill
On December 22, UK lawmakers vote for Prime Minister Johnson's European Union withdrawal bill, which will see a leave date of January 31 2020 enshrined in law. Getting a majority to vote to pass the bill in the lower house has proven a major sticking point for the PM, but following a general election Johnson's Conservative party won control of the house and the bill passed with a 124 majority.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/House of Commons
December 2020: EU, UK 'finally' reach trade deal
After months of disagreements over fishing rights and future business rules, the EU and UK clinched a post-Brexit trade deal on Christmas Eve. Prime Minister Boris Johnson hailed the deal, saying the UK has "taken back control of our laws and our destiny." The deal will allow the UK and the EU to trade without tariffs, but also impose limitations on free movement and financial services.
