Even if nations are able to limit warming, sea levels will still rise significantly, new research from Germany's Potsdam Institute shows. In a worst-case scenario, seas could rise 5.6 meters.
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Global sea levels will probably rise by even more than currently predicted, scientists warned on Friday.
Even if nations are able to achieve their Paris-Agreement commitment to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the oceans will still rise by about 0.5 meters (1.6 feet) by the end of the century and as much as 2 meters by 2300, a new study found.
If nations fail to act, and current emissions lead to warming of 4.5 degrees, then sea levels are predicted to rise between 0.6 and 1.3 meters by 2100 and between 1.7 and 5.6 meters by 2300.
The predictions are based on a survey of 106 of the world's leading sea level researchers, carried out by scientists from Nanyang Technological University (NTU) and co-authored by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and published in the Nature Partner Journal Climate and Atmospheric Science.
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Mitigation is 'in our hands'
"What we do now within a few decades will determine sea-level rise for many centuries, the new analysis shows more clearly than ever before," PIK's Stefan Rahmstorf said. "But this is also good news: when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions, we have it in our own hands how much we increase the risks for millions of people on the world's coasts, from Hamburg to Shanghai and from Mumbai to New York.
In September 2019, the UN climate science panel found that unmitigated climate change would lead to a sea level rise of between 0.61 meters and 1.1 meters by 2100. At the time it said the forecast could be conservative due to the speed at which Antarctic ice could melt.
Friday's report said the increased forecast came from better data and improved understanding of climate processes.
Data for decision makers
"The complexity of the sea-level rise projections and the sheer volume of relevant scientific publications makes it difficult for policy makers to gain an overview of the state of research," NTU's Benjamin Horton said in a statement.
"For such an overview, it is therefore useful to ask leading experts what kind of sea-level rise they expect — this gives a broader picture of future scenarios and provides policymakers with the information they need to decide on the necessary measures."
Catastrophes triggered by warming oceans
Climate change is causing the oceans to heat up rapidly. This not only has dramatic consequences for marine life, but also means there will be more extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods and forest fires.
Image: NGDC
A California day at the South Pole
In Antarctica, scientists measured temperatures on par with Los Angeles. In February, a record 18.3 degrees Celsius (64.9 degrees Fahrenheit) was measured at the Argentinean research station Esperanza Base in the north Antarctic. This was the highest temperature since measurements began there, according to NASA. The warm weather led to quickly developing melt ponds (pictured right).
Image: Earth Observatory/ NASA
More frequent and stronger storms
As oceans warm, the intensity of tropical cyclones will increase. The hurricane or typhoon season will last longer and there will be significantly more hurricanes, especially in the North Atlantic and the northeast Pacific. Extreme weather conditions will result in extremely destructive storms in the future, even in regions that have so far been spared.
Image: AFP/Rammb/Noaa/Ho
Rising sea levels and storm surges
Oceans warm along with the rising temperatures of the Earth's atmosphere, albeit with a delay. This leads to a thermal expansion of the water masses, causing sea levels to rise further. The habitats and livelihoods of numerous coastal inhabitants — especially in poorer regions — will be lost.
While there will be heavy precipitation and flooding in some places, extreme weather conditions elsewhere will cause very dry periods. Crop failures and devastating forest fires will be the result. The fire season will last much longer in many places, and the number of fires will increase dramatically.
Image: Reuters/AAP Image/D.
Relocating entire ecosystems
Warmer oceans will drive species, and eventually entire marine ecosystems, into colder regions. Fish and marine mammals will migrate toward the poles, just like land animals. The cod populations in the North Sea, for example, are already shrinking faster than can be explained by overfishing alone. Fishing regions further north could benefit from this development.
Image: by-nc-sa/Joachim S. Müller
Acidified seas
Heating causes CO2 to dissolve directly in surface water, the pH value of seawater then decreases and the water "acidifies." Mussels, starfish, corals, crabs and sea urchins lose their ability to form exoskeletons or endoskeletons in these conditions. This means that they will disappear, leading to unfiltered water and a lack of food for other marine life.
Less plankton as fodder
As the pH value decreases due to increased CO2 absorption, small algae aren't able to absorb as much iron. But plankton needs this mineral for strong growth. Since many phytoplankton species also form calcareous skeletons, they are likely to be affected by acidified water.
Image: picture alliance / dpa
Oxygen decreases
Warmer water stores less oxygen, so warming oceans lead to expanding areas that are oxygen-poor. In many rivers, lakes and lagoons, oxygen-poor "death zones" already exist where animals can't live because too little oxygen is dissolved in the water.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Schmidt
Explosive algae blooms
In warm, oxygen-poor water, toxic algae bloom and can multiply explosively. Their poison kills fish and other sea creatures. Algae carpets are already threatening the fishing industry and tourism in many places. Here is a picture from Chile's coast, where red algae killed thousands of fish with their nerve poison.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Marquez
Empty white coral skeletons
Warming oceans cause coral to lose not only its color but also its ability to reproduce, as a result of heavy coral bleaching. Coral reefs die off and provide no protection, no food and no hunting grounds for a variety of marine life.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/D. Naupold
Changing ocean currents
If the North Atlantic Current were to be interrupted by ocean warming, it would result in a severe cold spell throughout western and northern Europe. This is because the current ensures the continuous circulation of seawater as dense surface water sinks into deeper, cooler layers. The other oceanic currents would also be affected by such an interruption.