The state-supported funeral of Ratko Mladic in Belgrade this week has raised a pressing question in Brussels: Can a country seek EU membership while giving a hero's farewell to a convicted war criminal? For many, the event has shown that Serbia's accession process has not merely stalled. It has largely lost its political drive.

"For too long, the EU has kept treating Serbia as a normal candidate country," Engjellushe Morina of the European Council on Foreign Relations told DW, despite Belgrade's continued backsliding on democracy and the rule of law.

Naim Leo Besiri of Serbia's Institute for European Affairs adds: "The ruling majority in Serbia has not performed anything that was promised on the reform agenda during the last five years."

A candidate moving away from Europe

Both experts point out that Belgrade has refused to join EU sanctions against Russia. Democratic standards have deteriorated under nationalist President Aleksandar Vucic, while relations with Kosovo remain tense.

Despite having been sentenced to life imprisonment by a UN court for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes, Ratko Mladic was buried in Belgrade on Monday with military honors and the participation of government representatives. President Vucic stayed away, but facilitated and defended the public mourning.

Brussels reacted unusually strongly. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the images shocking. European Council President Antonio Costa condemned the glorification of war criminals. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos canceled a visit to Serbia.

Has the EU been too lenient?

But both Morina and Besiri say that this is not enough. They believe Vucic has been given too much room to maneuver for too long. In their perception, he has been treated as an indispensable partner who could secure stability in the Western Balkans and keep Serbia anchored to the West, despite disregarding basic European values.

Besiri says Serbian civil society had warned Brussels for years about attacks on media freedom, the rule of law and democratic institutions. But, he adds, the EU largely turned a blind eye.

Economic relations demonstrate the strong ties between the EU and Serbia. The bloc is Serbia's largest trading partner, investor and financial donor. Politically, however, Serbia has developed a close partnership with Moscow.

A common argument for continuing relations with Serbia is therefore based on the concern that greater pressure could push the country further towards Russia or China.

Strong economic ties, close relations with Moscow

Morina accepts that isolating Serbia would be dangerous, but sees other options between accommodation and abandoning relations altogether. The EU should remain engaged with Serbian society while forcing Vucic to make clear political choices, she argues.

Besiri says Russia and China could never replace the European market. In his view, Vucic uses both countries as a threat to discourage Brussels from taking firmer action.

Both researchers see strategies behind the current approach: Vucic benefits from cooperation without implementing the necessary reforms. Brussels, meanwhile, can continue to claim that Serbia remains tied to Europe.

The limits of financial pressure

The EU has not remained entirely inactive. It has started applying financial pressure. Further payments under the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans have been withheld because of concerns about judicial independence.

Besiri doubts that this will change Vucic's calculations. Broad funding cuts could hurt the population more than the political elite, he argues. Instead, he advocates targeted measures against those responsible for the country's democratic decline and the misuse of its institutions.

Could the election bring change?

The early parliamentary election on October 25 could put Vucic's model to the test. After 12 years as president, he now wants to remain Serbia's dominant political figure by becoming the next prime minister.

Besiri says that the political opposition in Serbia remains fragile and that "it is extremely difficult to win democratically in undemocratic elections." 

Neither expert expects one election to repair Serbia's institutions or fundamentally change its relationship with the EU.

Reconciliation remains a distant prospect

Reconciliation in the region appears even more distant. According to Besiri, Serbia would first have to acknowledge its role in the wars of the 1990s and accept established facts about the crimes committed. Instead, narratives portraying Serbs exclusively as victims remain deeply embedded in Serbian politics, education and the media.

"What has been happening recently is basically the reverse of everything that has been built for so many years," Morina underlines.

Mladic's funeral did not cause this development, she adds. It simply revealed once again how far Serbia currently remains from both regional reconciliation and EU membership.

Edited by: Carla Bleiker