Defense ministers, military officials and security experts from around the world gathered at the Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) in Singapore this week to discuss the security situation in the Asia-Pacific. The conference has been hosted annually since 2002 by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

What are the key takeaways from this year's conference?

1. Security situation in the Asia-Pacific is deteriorating

A week before the Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 began in Singapore, city-state Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said: "The reality in this changed world is that there will be more volatility — we will be facing storm after storm."

Indeed, several conflicts in the Asia-Pacific have escalated recently. In May 2025, there was a brief war between India and Pakistan. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia only ended in December 2025. In February 2026, recurring clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan reached a new intensity with Pakistani airstrikes. The civil war in Myanmar continues. Tensions regularly flare in the South China Sea. Taiwan — a focal point of many of the region's security issues — remains uncertain.

Above all, however, the growing rivalry between the United States and China dominated discussions, as China's rapidly expanding military is shifting the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific.

Evan A. Laksmana, IISS Senior Fellow for Southeast Asian Security and Defense, summed it up in the SLD's annual security report: "Regional states — whether major, middle or small ones — cannot escape this worsening security environment."

Vietnamese President and General Secretary To Lam, who opened the conference Friday evening with a keynote speech, stressed that competition between states is natural — but must be contained: "The core principle is managing differences within a legal framework, making competition limited, responsible, and predictable. A sustainable regional order cannot be built on constant fear and mutual distrust."

He also emphasized that development and security are closely linked. "For many countries, development is not a secondary option after security."

Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles explicitly agreed: "Security is utterly linked to development. Where there is prosperity, where there is human development, that is in itself a contributor to stability and peace. When that is all put in question, that is where you get volatility and instability."

2. More money for weapons

However, the response at the SLD to the deteriorating security situation is not primarily development — but above all rearmament. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), military spending in the Asia-Pacific rose by 8.1% in 2025 to $681 billion.

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said this was not enough. In his highly anticipated speech on Saturday, he said the United States would soon spend $1.5 trillion on defense, and called on all US allies in Asia to invest more in their own security. "A favorable balance of power requires capable allies with real military strength, real industrial capacity, and real political resolve. For too long, the security of this region has rested disproportionately on American military power, while many of our allies and partners allowed their own defense capabilities to atrophy.”

He explicitly praised South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and India, saying — unlike Europe — they had understood that peace can only be secured through strength, a line he repeated.

The German delegation remained calm in the face of US criticism. State Secretary for Defense Nils Hilmer said the region faces similar challenges to Europe, namely insufficient capacity. Since a constitutional amendment, Germany at least has sufficient funding. "This is the first time in many years that the Bundeswehr is receiving the money we need, and the most important task at the moment is to procure the right armaments at the right time in the right quantity."

The idea that more weapons do not automatically create more security and peace played only a marginal role at the SLD. Only International Committee of the Red Cross President Mirjana Spoljaric voiced concerns: "Where weapons are produced, weapons end up being used. The massive flow of weapons, the massive production of weapons, and the massive investments in defense will eventually create human loss and material loss. That's why we have to factor in that side of war from the beginning, from day one, as we budget for defense."

3. Taiwan remains in uncertainty

In this year's speech, Hegseth did not mention Taiwan at all. The de facto self-governed Republic of China is regarded by the People's Republic of China as a "breakaway province." Beijing has not ruled out using force to achieve "reunification."

In his previous SLD speech in 2025, Hegseth had warned starkly about "communist China," which he said might be close to attacking Taiwan — with catastrophic consequences for the world.

The shift in US-China relations — particularly regarding Taiwan — since the meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in mid-May is striking. The two leaders agreed on the China-proposed formula of a "constructive relationship and strategic stability" to guide future ties. Hegseth used this very wording in his speech, saying the region and the US "share a clear-eyed assessment of that security environment and a mutual understanding that a Pacific dominated by any hegemon would unravel the regional balance of power and undermine the equilibrium we all seek to preserve."

Former Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai expressed satisfaction in an interview with DW at the SLD: "President Xi and President Trump, agreed on a new vision for China-US relations, that is, constructive strategic stability. Now the most important thing for both sides to do is to work together to translate that vision into reality."

From Cui Tiankai's perspective, this includes halting arms deliveries to Taiwan. "We are against such arms sales any time of any amount. That's quite clear. Clearly any further arms sales are not constructive. It will hurt stability."

Asked by an audience member whether the $14 billion arms package for Taiwan — approved by Congress but put on hold by Trump in May — would still go ahead, Hegseth replied that the decision lies with the US president.

4. US remains indispensable — but not omnipotent

Longtime observer and former diplomat Bilahari Kausikan told DW at the SLD that fundamental realities remain unchanged: "The fact is, it is not possible for Europe to deter Russia without America at your back. It is not possible for Asia to balance China without America at our back. There's only one America, and we have to work with it." He added: "And on that foundation, then small and middle powers, which are never without agency, never totally without agency, then can work together according to their interests in particular domains."

At present, new and multilayered security partnerships are emerging in Asia. Japan is working more closely with Australia, the Philippines, India, New Zealand, Singapore and others. IISS Japan expert Robert Ward told DW: "So what Japan is trying to do is to create networks in the region of like-minded partners. It's a huge region. And no one country can do this on its own, not even the US, which is so far away."

These additional security networks also aim to increase the cost of China's ambitions, Ward added: "Another reason for this, I think, is to create strategic complexity for China."

The Philippine defense minister Gilberto Teodoro Jr struck a similar tone: "The US is one of those that are with us but Japan is with us, Australia is with us, New Zealand is with us, Canada is with us, France is with us. There are more convergence partners for deterrence naturally. It is going to continue."

Germany is also expanding its cooperation. State Secretary Hilmer said: "We are not only talking about strategic development, but we are also developing strategies, together, for example, with Japan and Singapore." He emphasized that this goes beyond dialogue to practical security policy. Germany has recently participated in RIMPAC, the world's largest maritime military exercise in the Pacific — and plans to take part on 2026 again.