Bloodthirsty terrorists or Syria's best hope? Syrians are divided about the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the offensive that resulted in the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad last week.

"They are also sons of the country," Ghaith Mahmoud, 36, who fought against the Syrian government forces but has lived in Germany since 2016, told DW. "I don't know if they can run the country. But I do know that all the young men who fought as part of these groups now only want to go home."

Other ex-pats are less understanding.They don't think HTS, which is now heading the setup of a new, transitional government in the country, can be trusted. 

HTS promised not to impose its Islamist politics on the religiously and ethnically diverse nation. But pictures of the HTS-appointed interim prime minister, Mohammed al-Bashir, raised alarm with some Syrians. He sat at a desk with two flags behind him — one was the green and black flag of the Syrian revolution, and the other was inscribed with an Islamic prayer. 

The prayer features prominently on the Saudi Arabian flag and has also been used by extremist groups and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

What policies a new Syrian transitional government, installed with HTS backing, would put in place also raises questions about whether the rebel group should still be classified as a terrorist organization. 

HTS was previously linked to extremist groups like al-Qaeda and the "Islamic State" (IS).That's why the United States designates HTS "a foreign terrorist organization" and the UK considers it a "proscribed terrorist organization."

The European Union has two lists sanctioning terror groups. One is autonomous to the EU, a spokesperson for foreign affairs told DW, and the other follows the UN's example. On the EU's own list, HTS is not listed as a terror group. But on the EU's second, UN-based list, HTS remains part of a sanctioned organization due to its affiliation with al-Qaeda and IS since 2013.

Should the UN remove HTS from that list, then the EU would do the same, the spokesperson added.

Debate over HTS terror listing

Earlier this week, UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen suggested that, given recent events, HTS' terror designation needed review.

"You have to look at the facts and to see what has happened during the last nine years," Pederson said at a press conference in Geneva. "It is nine years since that resolution [to put HTS on the terror list] was adopted and the reality so far is that the HTS and also the other armed groups have been sending good messages to the Syrian people; they have been sending messages of unity, of inclusiveness."

Politicians in the US and UK have also suggested a reassessment, although much of the debate has been behind closed doors.

Whether it will happen is unclear, according to Aaron Zelin, an expert on HTS and senior fellow at the Washington Institute.

"It's understandable that governments would be discussing it just because of the change in [Syria's] situation," he told DW. "But it's not necessarily because people don't think they're extremists. HTS actually called for the US to take them off the [terror] list back in 2020."

Though delisting didn't happen then, Syria's current geopolitical importance to the West could work in HTS' favor, Zelin suggested.

Right-wing and anti-immigration politicians in Europe are already discussing how they can send Syrian refugees back. But international law would very likely forbid sending people directly to a country run by a recognized terror group and countries cannot openly and legitimately communicate with one.

Contacts established

That said, there are already contacts between HTS and at least some of the governments that classify HTS as a terror group. Turkey talks to them and Germany's Foreign Ministry says it has ways of contacting HTS, as does its US counterpart.

"We have the ability to get messages to every one of the relevant groups inside Syria," a State Department spokesperson said Tuesday in Washington. But that doesn't mean the US can legally offer material support to a designated foreign terrorist organization, he continued.

The latter is another reason why, experts have argued, it's worth considering HTS' terror listing.

It gets in the way of accessing humanitarian aid, which happened after the devastating earthquake that hit Turkey and northern Syria in February 2023.

Pre-existing sanctions on Syria's Assad regime and the HTS terror listing also make it very difficult for organizations working on development and reconstruction in Syria. HTS has announced it wants to run a free-market economy, but sanctions would also have an international "chilling effect" as businesses and banks could be extremely cautious when it comes to dealing with Syria.

There are also reasons for caution on HTS terror listing, observers have said.

HTS was born out of several extremist groups in Syria but severed those ties in 2016 and since then has actually imprisoned, expelled and fought members of al-Qaeda and the IS group. HTS also previously said it would not allow its territory to be used as a base for extremist attacks.

"HTS poses a low threat to those outside of its immediate area of control," a brief by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies noted in mid-2023. "However, HTS' authoritarian style of governance poses a threat to the local population."

Actions, not words

Since around 2017, HTS has controlled an area in northern Syria with a population of over 3 million people, and, like all other opposition militia groups in the country, it has also been accused of human rights abuses.

"Its policies are often enforced through intimidation, assassination of its rivals and the murder of civil society activists," Joseph Daher, a professor at the European University Institute and expert on Syria, explained in an interview with Tempest magazine this week. "Many Syrians in areas under the group's control express relief at the relative stability there but resentment at the group's iron-fisted practices."

To rid itself of the terror listing and gain formal international recognition, HTS must now prove itself, experts at the Crisis Group think tank said in a statement published Thursday.

"Washington and other Western capitals should … lay out for [HTS military leader Abu Mohammed] al-Golani what he needs to do to get the terrorism designation lifted," they wrote. "[Al-Golani] must quickly show Syrians, particularly those who do not share his Islamist beliefs and the country's minorities, as well as mistrustful neighbors and Western capitals, that his movement can work with others to steer the country toward a better future. The world, in turn, should give him space to do so."

If the international community deems the Syrian government's actions inadequate, "officials can quickly reimpose the designation if they deem it necessary," Crisis Group suggested. 

Edited by: Sean M. Sinico