Even if North Korea's Kim Jong Un seems more prepared than ever to cooperate, US President Donald Trump will not be able to dispel China's influence on the Korean peninsula. Quite the opposite, says DW's Frank Sieren.
Advertisement
It's like waking up from a nightmare for Koreans. At the historic summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in last week, the heavily militarized border between the two hostile neighbor states seemed like an open garden door for the first time. The oft-criticized, unpredictable dictator from the North suddenly seemed human, laughing, appearing charming at the side of his sister and joking that he would no longer disturb his South Korean counterparts' sleep with unannounced nuclear tests.
In South Korea, the summit was followed like a football match. The fear of nuclear attack that was omnipresent during the Cold War in Europe is still omnipresent there. But it seems as if people on the Korean peninsula can now at least breathe a sigh of relief. A new "era of peace" has been hailed. Kim wants to close nuclear testing sites this month. The goal is to transform the 1953 ceasefire agreement that brought an end to fighting in the Korean War into a formal peace treaty by the end of the year.
Is Trump a power broker in Korea?
US President Donald Trump, who had provoked an escalation of the conflict in recent months with sanctions and verbal jousting, is now staging himself as a power broker behind the scenes.
He tweeted that Americans should be "very proud" of "what is now taking place in Korea." He was patronizing to China, however, and later added: "Please do not forget the great help that my good friend, President Xi [Jinping] of China, has given to the United States, particularly at the Border of North Korea. Without him it would have been a much longer, tougher, process!" Acting just like a leader who gives out words of empty praise or wipes dandruff from his French counterpart's suit.
For Trump, the roles are clear. He's a doer and Xi helped him, but at the negotiating table the Chinese president is definitely second violin. When Kim and Trump meet at the end of May or June in another historic summit, Washington will try to fixate China in a secondary role.
From the outside, it seems as if Beijing lost the reins in this unexpectedly fast rapprochement. The Panmunjom Declaration for Peace announced "trilateral talks with the US or quadrilateral talks that also involved China." The country that lost over 150,000 soldiers in the Korean proxy war 65 years ago is now in second place. Apparently, Kim only wants to invite experts and journalists from South Korea and the US to document the closure of nuclear plants in Punggye-ri, in the northeast of North Korea, where all six atomic tests have taken place so far.
Kim must have kept China in the loop
But this impression is deceptive. For one, the information about Kim's plans has largely come from South Korean President Moon, who has been allowed to make declarations on behalf of the North. And after making his surprise peace overtures to the South, North Korea's "supreme leader" will surely be nurturing his relationship with Chinese President Xi. His surprise journey to Beijing at the end of March was his first foreign trip since taking over from his father seven years ago. Only he and Xi know what was said at this "strategic communication," as both sides called it, but he will almost certainly have given his big brother the precise details of whatever peace plans he had in store.
Kim needs China as an economic partner and as a political partner to work out his own position with regard to the US. South Korea also needs China more than the US at the moment. China is South Korea's most important economic partner and the military protection that the US provides might not be so valuable if North Korea poses less of a threat. The military in Washington understood this from the outset. Trump hasn't yet apparently. This is also a question of money. South Korea pays for half of the 30,000 US soldiers based on its territory. But for how much longer?
Is Deng a model for Kim?
Not only geographically but also ideologically, Pyongyang is closer to Beijing than to Washington, regardless of a possible US nonaggression pact. Kim wants to pave the way that Deng Xiaoping chose for China at the end of the 1970s: economic opening first and political opening later — much later. There should be no illusions about this, despite the Swiss-educated leader's recent charm offensive. There should also be no illusions that China will give more leeway to the US in the region. China wants to push back Washington's influence all over Asia, including in the Philippines, Vietnam and Pakistan.
Kim has a valuable trump card which will prevent him from falling under the wheels of power politics: Beijing intends to keep North Korea as a military buffer zone between US bases in South Korea and the Chinese border. So the Chinese government needs a strong Kim.
Beijing's economic interests in North Korea
China is also very interested in North Korea's resources, which include coal, gold, silver and rare earths that are almost untapped. Beijing would be reluctant to let these treasures go to others.
This is also a reason why Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi went to North Korea for talks. He will advise Kim on foreign policy and make sure that the process goes smoothly despite Trump's unpredictable nature. There is even speculation that Xi himself might make a state visit to Pyongyang in June. Kim invited him in person when they met.
Kim would do well to not make any hasty moves. The diplomatic wrangle over North Korea between the US and China is far from over.
Frank Sieren has lived in Beijing for over 20 years.
North Korea: Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un's nuclear saga
North Korea's "rocket man" and America's "dotard" first threatened to fire nuclear weapons at each other. Then they wanted to talk peace, before Trump canceled. DW charts the major events in the Trump-Kim saga.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon
January 2, 2017: Missile test imminent
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said in his New Year’s address that his country was in the "final stages" of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). US President-elect Donald Trump, whose inauguration was set for January 20, said on Twitter: "North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the US. It won't happen!"
Image: Getty Images/AFP/KNCA
July 4, 2017: North Korea's 'gift packages'
North Korea tested its first ICBM — the Hwasong-14 — on US Independence Day. Kim reportedly told his scientists that "the US would be displeased" by the launch. This, he said, was because "it was given a 'package of gifts' ... on its 'Independence Day.'" Trump wrote on Twitter in response: "North Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do with his life?"
Image: Reuters/KCNA
July 28, 2017: US mainland threatened
Pyongyang tested its second Hwasong-14 weeks later. Experts estimated the new rocket could reach the US mainland. Trump lashed out at North Korean ally China, writing in a Tweet: "I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk."
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Korean Central News Agency
August 8, 2017: 'Fire and fury'
Trump appeared to threaten swift military action against Pyongyang when he told reporters: "North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen." North Korea responded by threatening to fire a medium-range ballistic missile into the waters around Guam, a US territory in the Pacific Ocean. It did not follow through.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/B. Anderson
August 29, 2017: Japan rocket test
Pyongyang sparked international outcry when it test-launched a mid-range ballistic missile — the Hwasong-12 — over Japan. The UN Security Council unanimously condemned the test. Trump said in a White House statement: "Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/kyodo
September 3, 2017: Hydrogen bomb test
North Korea announced it had successfully tested its sixth nuclear weapon. Pyongyang said it was a powerful type of nuclear weapon called a hydrogen bomb and that it could be placed on top of a ballistic missile. Trump wrote on Twitter: "The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea."
Image: Reuters/KCNA
September 19, 2017: Threat to 'Rocket Man'
In his first speech at the United Nations, Trump called North Korea a "rogue state" and said Washington "will have no choice than to totally destroy North Korea" if Pyongyang failed to stop its nuclear weapons program. Referring to Kim, he added: "Rocket man is on a suicide mission for himself and his regime." Kim called Trump a "mentally-deranged US dotard" two days later.
Image: Getty Images/S. Platt
November 29, 2017: Third ICBM test
North Korea test-fired its third ICBM of 2017. Pyongyang claimed it was a new missile, the Hwasong-15, which was superior to the Hwasong-14 and could hit any target on the US mainland. The US urged allies, including Germany, to break diplomatic ties with North Korea. Berlin ignored the call. Trump also called Kim a "sick puppy."
Image: Reuters/KCNA
January 3, 2018: Who's got the bigger button?
Kim said in his 2018 New Year's address that the North had completed its nuclear weapons program and that a "nuclear button" was on his desk at all times. Trump wrote two days later on Twitter: "Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!"
Image: Reuters/KCNA
February 10, 2018: Tensions thawing?
South Korean President Moon Jae-in welcomed Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, at the presidential house in the South Korean capital. She handed a letter to Moon inviting him to meet the North Korean leader in Pyongyang. Tensions appeared to be thawing. Seoul and Pyongyang had already agreed to send a unified hockey team to compete at the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/K. Ju-sung
March 6, 2018: Momentum builds
South Korean National Security Adviser Chung Eui-yong led a delegation on March 5 to Pyongyang to discuss the potential for peace talks. The next day, Chung said both sides had agreed to hold a joint summit in April and set up a telephone hotline between the two capitals. He also said Pyongyang would agree to stop its nuclear weapons and missile tests if the US agreed to hold talks with the North.
Image: Reuters/Yonhap/Reuters/Yonhap/South Korean Presidential Blue House
March 9, 2018: Trump agrees
Chung flew on to Washington, D.C. to speak with Trump. After the meeting, Chung told reporters the US president had agreed to meet Kim by May. Trump later wrote on Twitter: "no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!" Foreign leaders welcomed the historic breakthrough.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/dpa/Wong Maye-E
April 19, 2018: 'Denuclearization'
A week before the scheduled meeting at the border between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Moon said North Korea wanted "an end to the hostile relations" and had expressed a commitment to "complete denuclearization" of the peninsula. The next day, the telephone hotline was connected for the first time since February 2016, so Moon and Kim could talk directly.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Young-Joon
April 21, 2018: Kim ends missile tests
Kim announced North Korea would stop nuclear and missile tests. Kim said: "We no longer need any nuclear test or test launches of intermediate and intercontinental range ballistic missiles, and because of this the northern nuclear test site has finished its mission." However, no mention was made of its stored nuclear materials and equipment.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/A. Young-joon
April 27, 2018: Historic summit
Kim and Moon Jae-in meet in the border town of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that has divided the two Koreas since the Korean War in 1953. The two leaders vowed to work towards a nuclear-free Korea and pledged an end to war. It was the first time a North Korean leader had set foot across the border since the 1950s and paves the diplomatic way for a Trump-Kim meeting in May or June.
Image: DW/Alexander Freund
April 30, 2018: Seoul turns off broadcasts
South Korea announces its propaganda loudspeakers are to be switched off for good. They had been silenced temporarily ahead of the inter-Korean summit, which prompted the North to halt its broadcasts, too. Pyongyang also said it would adjust its time zone to that of the South as a symbolic gesture. North Korea has been half an hour behind the South since 2015.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Jones
May 24, 2018: Trump calls off Kim summit
After North Korea slammed US Vice President Mike Pence for comparing North Korea and Libya, Donald Trump abruptly canceled the summit. Trump said the move was due to "tremendous anger and open hostility" displayed by Pyongyang.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Vucci
June 1, 2018: Trump backtracks
A day after scrapping the summit, Trump suggested he was still open to meeting Kim. US and North Korean officials met during the following week and on June 1, Trump met one of Kim's closest aides, Kim Yong Chol, in the White House. Shortly thereafter, Trump said the summit would indeed take place on June 12 in Singapore. "I think you're going to have a very positive result in the end," he said.
Image: picture-alliance/A. Harnik
June 12, 2018: Smiles in Singapore
Trump and Kim met in Singapore as planned. They smiled, shook hands and praised how far they had come in overcoming their previous animosity. The summit ended with both leaders signing a short joint declaration that committed Pyongyang to denuclearize and the US to providing unspecified "security guarantees" to the North. Trump also said he would invite Kim to the White House.