At the ASEAN Summit in Singapore, Beijing tried to strengthen ties with Southeast Asian states. DW’s Frank Sieren says that could have far-reaching consequences for Europe’s role in global politics.
Maybe he's still reeling from last year when he attended the summit as part of his longest foreign trip since taking office. He came back empty-handed after 12 days and left behind the impression that Washington did not have a substantial strategy to counter China's rise and the resulting shift in global power play.
This year, Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe were all there. No western European leaders were present, however.
Last month, the EU signed a free-trade deal with Singapore at the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in Brussels — the first real free-trade agreement between the EU and an ASEAN state. It would make sense for Germany as a major exporter and for the EU's role in the world as a whole to cooperate more closely with ASEAN members. The deal with Singapore was a long time in the making — negotiations began in 2009 — but it is surely only a beginning.
ASEAN countries at a glance
Five decades ago, ASEAN came to life, bringing together an array of ethnic, religious and linguistic groups. The bloc now has over 600 million inhabitants. Here's a look at the various member countries.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Rahim
Symbolizing unity
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) celebrated its 50th anniversary last year. Since its founding, the bloc has emerged as a beacon of unity in Southeast Asia, although it has often struggled to find consensus among members over key policy issues affecting the region's politics, security and the economy, among other things.
Image: Reuters/E. de Castro
Brunei
The Sultanate of Brunei, located on the north coast of the island of Borneo, is one of the richest nations in the world. The small, oil-rich country is governed by its sultan as an absolute Muslim monarchy. Islam is the official religion in Brunei, with Sunni Muslims making up about 70 percent of the population. The sultan also sees himself as the main custodian of religious beliefs in Brunei.
Image: Fotolia
Cambodia
Cambodia joined the ASEAN grouping in 1999, and during the past ten years, the Cambodian economy has grown by at least 7 percent year after year. That makes it one of the fastest growing economies in the world. But the unequal distribution of wealth and income is a problem, with many of the nation's around 16-million strong population stuck in abject poverty, especially in rural areas.
Image: Erik Jan Ouwerkerk
Indonesia
Indonesia plays a salient role in ASEAN due to its status as the bloc's most populous member state as well as the world's most populous Muslim nation, with over 250 million inhabitants. The ASEAN secretariat is also based in the country's capital, Jakarta. Indonesia, which comprises around 17,000 islands, is the world's largest archipelago nation and boasts Southeast Asia's biggest economy.
Image: A Brit and a Broad
Laos
Laos became a member of the ASEAN bloc in 1997. The country has a population of around 6.5 million. Around 80 percent of the inhabitants of the poor, landlocked and isolated communist country depend upon farming for their livelihood. That's how they subsist and feed their families. Laos has an increasingly close relationship with China.
Image: Imago/J. Langley
Malaysia
A founding member of ASEAN, Malaysia has the club's third-largest economy. Religion and politics are sensitive issues in Malaysian politics, with the deadly sectarian riots of 1969 often cited as the need to maintain ethnic harmony in the country. Over 60 percent of Malaysia's 30 million inhabitants are Muslim, with the rest adhering to Buddhism, Christianity, Hinduism, and other religions.
Image: Saeed Khan/AFP/Getty Images
Myanmar
Myanmar, which joined the club in 1997, was ruled for decades by a military junta that left it impoverished. The party of Aung San Suu Kyi, the nation's democracy icon, won the first fully free elections for generations, held in 2015. But authorities are struggling to tackle a powerful Buddhist nationalist movement that has grown in strength in recent years and favors the former military rulers.
Image: AFP/Getty Images
The Philippines
The Philippines, an archipelago nation consisting of thousands of islands, is one of the most disaster-prone areas in the world. The country has has a population of over 100 million, and one of the fastest expanding economies. But it has suffered major environmental degradation in recent years due to reasons such as mismanagement of resources, deforestation and high population growth.
Image: Imago/M. Runkel
Singapore
The wealthy city-state has been a member of ASEAN since the bloc's founding in 1967. The country has a thriving economy, which has grown at a rapid pace since independence, underpinned by its position as a global financial hub. Densely populated Singapore has a multi-racial citizenry as well as tough laws against protests and curbs on press freedom.
Image: picture-alliance/robertharding/A. Hall
Thailand
Thailand's politics have been characterized by a long series of coups, with the nation's military frequently ousting democratically elected governments. The 2014 coup marked the 12th successful military takeover since Thailand embraced parliamentary democracy 85 years ago. The country boasts Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy and the reputation of being an attractive tourist destination.
Image: DW/S. Bandopadhyay
Vietnam
Vietnam has been ruled by a one-party communist state since the end of the Vietnam War in 1975. Since 1986, Vietnam has introduced sweeping market reforms to boost growth and development. But the ruling party doesn't permit criticism and the country is ranked among the worst for press freedom. Vietnam joined ASEAN in 1995.
Image: AFP/Getty Images
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ASEAN — an economic powerhouse
With its 635 million inhabitants, ASEAN's market is the sixth-biggest in the world. Annual economic growth currently lies at around 5 percent. The bloc is aiming to become the world's fourth-largest economy by 2030, after the US, China and the EU.
ASEAN comprises the economic powerhouse Singapore, the world's most populous Muslin country Indonesia, as well as Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Brunei, Laos and Cambodia.
Depending on their mood, they see China's rise sometimes as a chance and sometimes as a threat. As opposed to the EU, China is making the most of every chance to get closer to them, even if this sometimes backfires.
The negotiations for a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) between ASEAN and six Asia-Pacific states (China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand) are part of Beijing's efforts. The idea is to create a huge free-trade bloc that would comprise a third of the global economy.
Originally, the RCEP was conceived as an answer to the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which would have excluded China, but which Trump scrapped as soon as he took office. He has not yet been able to make up for the loss of confidence that he triggered in so doing.
The power relationship has shifted in China's favor.
The trade war that he has kindled is also sending ASEAN states into China's arms. China and the US are the largest markets for Southeast Asian exports. If China and the US suffer because of the trade war, so do the ASEAN states.
On the other hand, there are also benefits. For example, when Chinese companies move their production to subsidiaries in neighboring states to avoid the US tariffs.
Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong said that the RCEP would make a significant contribution to integration and free trade in the region: "The Chinese believe that under the current situation, concluding the negotiations and reaching an agreement as soon as possible will be conducive to deepening regional integration, addressing the challenge of unilateralism and protectionism, and will be significant in creating an open, inclusive and rules-based global trade mechanism."
China expands its influence in Papua New Guinea
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US places bets on military strength
Washington's strategy for the Indo-Pacific seems currently to act as a counterweight to China as it becomes increasingly powerful, in conjunction with traditional US allies Japan and Australia. China's arch-rival India could also play a significant role here. However, it is questionable whether Delhi will simply agree to serve as the US' assistant. All the more because US already has a strong military presence in the region.
Washington has announced that it will invest $300 million (€263 million) into military projects while only putting $113 million into infrastructure and connectivity projects — a paltry sum compared to the huge amounts that China is investing in its New Silk Road project. The Trump administration is seeking to use territorial disputes in the South China Sea to drive a wedge between China and certain ASEAN states. This will probably not succeed.
South China Sea countries are building larger navies
Countries surrounding the South China Sea have been pumping more resources into their navies. China spends more than other regional nations combined, but smaller navies are still acquiring effective fleets.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/J. Drake
Pride of the Chinese armada
The first Chinese aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, was originally a Soviet model built in 1986. In 1998, the stripped hulk was sold to China by Ukraine and rebuilt by the Dailian Shipbuilding Industry Company in northeastern China. It was completed in 2012 and has been ready for service since 2016.
Image: imago/Xinhua
'Black holes' for Vietnam
In recent years, Vietnam has acquired six Russian Kilo-class submarines. Two were delivered in 2017. The subs are nicknamed "black holes" by the US Navy, because they run very quietly and are difficult to locate. They are specialized for missions in shallow waters and for defense against enemy ships and submarines.
Image: Vietnam News Agency/AFP/Getty Images
Flagship of the Philippines
The BRP Gregorio del Pilar is the flagship of the Philippine Navy. The vessel is one of three former US Coast Guard cutters that were acquired by the Philippines. The ship was first put in service in 1967 and it was modernized in 2011. In 2012, it was involved in the dispute with the People's Republic of China over Scarborough Shoal.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Favila
Warships from European shipyards
Indonesia is in the process of buying new ships and modernizing its navy. Pictured here is the KRI Sultan Hasanuddin, a Sigma-class corvette. The ship was built in 2007 in the Netherlands. Germany also supplies warships to countries in the region. The Kasturi-class corvettes in Malaysia and Brunei's Darussalam-class high-seas patrol boats come from German shipyards.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/A. Ibrahim
Singapore's stealth ships
Singapore is unmatched for hi-tech in the region. Since 2007, the city-state has put six Formidable-class stealth ships in service. All of them were built in France.
Image: Imago/China Foto Press
The long arm of the US Navy
The only truly global naval power remains the US Navy. The seventh fleet is stationed in the Pacific. It is the largest forward-deployed fleet of the US Navy with 50-60 ships, 350 aircraft and 60,000 personnel. This includes the only US aircraft carrier stationed outside of the US, the USS Ronald Regan, stationed at the US naval base in Yokosuka, Japan.
Image: AP
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Brussels would be well advised to develop its partnerships in Asia and to work toward an EU-ASEAN free-trade agreement in the long term. The EU still has technology and products to offer that Asia needs and Europeans are still welcomed with open arms because nobody wants to place all their bets on China. Brussels should be prepared to compromise. In Thailand, for example, a free-trade agreement is on ice because the EU does not want to negotiate with the military government.
But as Beijing and Bangkok get closer, the EU might have to revise its position. The EU must shift into Realpolitik mode when it comes to Asia.
Frank Sieren has lived in Beijing for over 20 years.