Sinn Fein eyes historic victory in Northern Ireland election
May 6, 2022
Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein is seeking to make history by emerging with the most assembly seats in British-controlled Northern Ireland.
A Sinn Fein election poster hangs from a lamp post in West BelfastImage: Peter Morrison/AP Photo/picture alliance
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Early polling on Friday showed Sinn Fein emerging as the largest single party in the Northern Ireland Assembly — marking a seismic shift in the province's politics.
The predicted victory — the first for an Irish nationalist party advocating that Northern Ireland unite with the Republic of Ireland and leave the UK — could foreshadow a future referendum on this issue.
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How does the polling look?
Final polls gave Sinn Fein an average of 25% of the vote in the contest for 90 seats in the power-sharing assembly.
That represented a six-point lead over the party's nearest rival, the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). The hardline Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) looks poised to take some support from the DUP.
The DUP's popularity has shrunk over the past 18 months, partly down to frustrations in UK loyalist communities about Brexit.
Vying alongside it for second place is the cross-community Alliance Party, which has also enjoyed a surge in support from moderate voters.
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What would a Sinn Fein win mean?
If it emerges as the largest party, Sinn Fein would be able to nominate the province's First Minister for the first time ever. The election of a First Minister advocating a united Ireland would represent a sea change in the province's politics.
However, a referendum that could see Northern Ireland become part of the neighboring Republic of Ireland, and leave the UK, is ultimately at the discretion of the British government and likely to be years away. The Good Friday peace accord does, however, stipulate that if it ever appears "likely" that "a majority of those voting" would support reunification, the UK should enable such a poll.
The party in second place would be able to choose the deputy First Minister — a position that holds the same effective governmental power in Northern Ireland's unique power-sharing arrangement.
Sinn Fein vice president Michelle O'Neill downplayed its calls for Irish unity during the election campaign. She said the economically left-leaning party was "not fixated" on a date for a sovereignty poll, instead being focused on helping people deal with a cost-of-living crisis.
Led by a younger generation of politicians with fewer links to the IRA and the "Troubles" — a period of sectarian violence between 1968 and 1998 in which 3,600 people were killed — Sinn Fein has seen its political fortunes soar north and south of the border.
The 499-kilometer Irish border wasn't originally intended to be an international frontier. Since the Republic of Ireland was created, the situation at the border has mirrored the changing nature of Anglo-Irish relations.
Image: imago/UIG
The Irish Free State
Britain's response to Irish demands for independence was devolution within the UK, or home rule. Pro-British Unionists didn't want to be governed by Dublin, so two parliaments were set up, for Northern and Southern Ireland. However, nationalists still pushed for full independence and in 1922 Southern Ireland was superseded by the Irish Free State as enshrined in the Anglo-Irish Treaty (pictured).
Image: Getty Images/Topical Press Agency
The Six Counties
Northern Ireland had been carved in a way that allowed Protestant loyalists to stay in control, but also ensure the region was large enough to be viable. It included four majority-Protestant counties in the ancient province of Ulster, as well as the two Catholic nationalist counties. Three of Ulster's counties — Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan — were placed on the Southern Ireland side of the border.
No laughing matter?
Involving members of the British, Irish and devolved Belfast governments, a 1924-25 boundary commission looked at the whether the border should stay where it was. It broadly remained in the same place, often cutting through communities across its 310 miles. The Spike Milligan novel "Puckoon," made into a film (above), charted the problems brought to a fictional Irish village divided by the border.
The new border's checkpoints initially regulated the movement of certain goods, with movement of people being free. However, the Anglo-Irish Trade War of the 1930s saw tariffs imposed on foods and later coal and steel. The dispute ended in 1936, but Ireland still pursued protectionist policies into the 1950s. Customs stayed in place until the advent of the EU Single Market in 1993.
Image: picture alliance/AP Images/S. Smart
Bloody legacy
With an escalation in fighting in Northern Ireland in 1969, British troops were sent to the province, fueling nationalist resentment. The border was heavily guarded to stop weapons smuggling from the Republic. The South Armagh stretch was particularly notorious. The Irish Republican Army's South Armagh Brigade is thought to have killed about 165 British troops and police from 1970 to 1997.
Image: picture alliance/empics/PA
South of the Border
The border was also policed by the Republic of Ireland's security forces, who intensified their anti-terror efforts in the late 1970s. They worked with the British, but the working relationship was not an easy one. To communicate with Irish counterparts, British troops at one time had to speak to the Northern Irish police, who would contact the Irish police, who would then call the Irish army.
Image: picture alliance/empics/PA
Watchtowers and rifle sights
Despite the end of customs in 1993, the threat of terror still loomed and the border remained militarized, with watchtowers and soldiers. After the 1998 Good Friday Agreement — which brought back devolved government to Northern Ireland and sought to address issues such as policing and paramilitarism — the IRA eventually halted its campaign of violence as border security disappeared.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/P. McErlane
Barely noticeable
The border today remains as invisible as it has ever been, with free movement of traffic between the Republic and the North. The picture shows two policemen, one British, one Irish, watching as a foreign leg of the Giro d'Italia crosses the border in Armagh.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/P. McErlane
Anything to declare?
There were fears that Brexit would make a hard border necessary, given that Britain has left both the EU Customs Union and Single Market. The border issue was one of three conditions laid out by the EU for talks on future trade after the separation. Campaigners, like those pictured above, had sought to remind the public of what a hard border would look like.
Image: picture alliance/empics/N. Carson/PA Wire
Border in the Irish Sea
Customs officials check freight trucks as they disembark from a ferry at the Northern Irish port of Larne. The inspections effectively created a customs border in the Irish Sea, avoiding the need for checks on land. The arrangement has led to supply problems for some businesses. However, it has been touted as good for Northern Ireland, giving firms there free access to both the UK and EU markets.
Image: Charles McQuillan/Getty Images
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Who takes the deputy role?
A second-place finish for the Alliance Party would also be a huge shift, nudging the DUP into third place as the largest Unionist party.
Pro-British parties, mainly supported by the region's Protestant population, have been pre-eminent in Northern Ireland for a century.
Should the non-aligned Alliance emerge second, the power-sharing rules of the Northern Ireland Executive mean it would have to denominate — at least temporarily — as Unionist to nominate a deputy First Minister. The party, which is trying not to define itself by what for decades was the core dividing line in Northern Irish politics, has indicated in the past that it would not do this.
The DUP, meanwhile, has said it will no longer do so unless there is a total overhaul of the Brexit protocol on Northern Ireland's trade with the rest of the UK. At present, checks take place between Great Britain and goods arriving into or leaving the province across the Irish Sea. That arrangement — effectively creating a barrier within the United Kingdom — makes many Unionists uncomfortable.
The Northern Ireland vote took place at the same time as local elections in other parts of the UK, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative party losing control of key councils in London.
