The Munich Security Conference has been used as a platform for dialogue on the world's security challenges. DW spoke with SIPRI director Dan Smith to examine the prospects of international security ahead of the event.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/M. Ngan
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DW: The 2017 Munich Security Report, "Post-Truth, Post-West, Post-Order?", is out, and it paints a rather bleak picture. "The international security environment is arguably more volatile than at any time since World War II," Wolfgang Ischinger, the chairman of the Munich Security Conference (MSC), wrote in the foreword. What is your take on that assessment and the report's title?
Dan Smith: The first thing is that Wolfgang Ischinger is making a very bold historical claim. If you look at the late 1940s in particular - the period of the Berlin crisis, the airlift, the lead-up to the formation of NATO, the time of the fallout of the US Marshall Plan for postwar reconstruction, the famines and the hardships that were there in Europe during the winters of that time, the imposition of Soviet control in Eastern Europe - I think that you could also argue that was a highly volatile period.
Smith is the director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute and has a long record of research and publications on a wide range of conflict and peace issues, including nationalism, armed conflicts and peace buildingImage: DW/T. Meheretu
So, I think that, at the very least, Wolfgang Ischinger is making a comparison between that period and this one. And this is what I think is interesting about the question mark in the title of the MSR. Is this "post-order"? Or is it a process of transitioning to a new order? I think that is, in some ways, the key question about our current time.
You were at the conference in 2016. When we look at the most important shifts in global security over the past year, what do you regard as the most striking changes?
It is important to realize that the international security environment can change through small steps which are not necessarily very dramatic ones each year but over several years add up to something quite big. But, if you are looking at the things that happened in 2016 in particular, then I think it is pretty obvious - although everybody is talking about this, so it feels as if one is talking a cliche now - that the election of Donald Trump as American president has, at the very least, brought out into the open several important question marks about the international order as we are used to seeing it.
His different attitudes towards NATO and the EU compared to his predecessors, his different attitude towards Russia compared to his predecessors, his much more assertive naming of China as the No. 1 problem that the US faces in the world - all of these are taking a lot of assumptions that we have held for many years and throwing them up into the air.
The issue now is that we don't really know how those cards he has thrown in the air will all fall down. We don't know what pattern will emerge when they reach the floor again. So, this is a time of uncertainty in any case. Even if Hillary Clinton had been elected, we would have had a lot of questions, a lot of uncertainties. If we think back to the Munich Security Report a year ago, it was not a particularly optimistic one. It talked about irresponsibility and uncertainty at the highest levels. So I think the election of Trump is a big one.
Trump: Mogul, populist, president
Already a real estate magnate, best-selling author and reality TV star, Donald Trump is about to become the 45th US president. Often regarded as an outlandish, comic figure, Trump will soon move into the White House.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
The family, the empire
Surrounded by the ones he loves, Donald Trump with his wife, Melania, daughters Ivanka and Tiffany, his sons Eric and Donald, Jr., and grandchildren Kai and Donald John III. His three eldest children are senior vice presidents in the Trump organization.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
From millionaire to billionaire
This picture from 1984 shows Trump opening Harrah's at Trump Plaza, a casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey. It's one of the investments that helped turn Trump, already a millionaire thanks to cash from his father, into a billionaire.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Images/M. Lederhandler
Off to a good start
Trump inherited the money he used to launch his real estate empire from his father, Frederick. He gave his son a million dollars to start and then, upon his death, left Donald and his three siblings $400 million.
Image: imago/ZUMA Press
What's in a name? Billions.
Donald Trump aggressively invested the money and experienced the market's highs and lows. Long-term success came thanks to Trump Tower in New York City. Trump has said he's worth some $10 billion, but he has not released financial information to prove the claim. Experts estimate he's worth about a third of that.
Image: Getty Images/D. Angerer
"Very good, very smart"
That's what Trump had to say about himself. He studied at the renowned Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and graduated with a bachelor's degree.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/B.J. Harpaz
Captain Trump
Before college, Trump was sent to a military academy at the age of 13 to learn discipline. By the time he graduated, he had earned an officer's rank at the academy. During his campaign for president, he said he enjoyed the school's structure and military culture.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/
Heel spurs instead of Vietnam
Despite the military education, Trump did not serve in the Vietnam War. He received four deferments while studying and a fifth for bone spurs in his heels. Trump will be the first US president to enter the White House without having previously served in a public office or the military.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo
Wife number one: Ivana
In 1977, Trump married Ivana Zelnuickova of what was then Czechoslovakia. The pair had three children together, Donald John, Jr., Ivanka Marie and Eric Fredrick. The marriage, however, was plagued with rumors of extra-marital affairs and ended in 1990. Ivana was the one who created Trump's nickname "The Donald."
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Family number two
Trump later married his second wife, Marla Maples. Maples gave birth to their daughter Tiffany in 1993.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/J. Minchillo
Girls, girls, girls
Trump seemed to enjoy being photographed with women other than his wife by his side. He often visited beauty pageants and posed with young models. From 1996 to 2015, he owned part of all the Miss Universe pageants. Trump would later come under fire for an audio recording of him saying his fame allowed him to grope women without fearing consequences.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/K. Lemm
The Art of the Deal
How do you make a quick million? Trump's best-seller "The Art of the Deal," which was part autobiography, part instruction manual for ambitious businessmen, tried to show readers the way. Already well-known, the book solidified Trump's spot in the public spotlight.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/M. Schwalm
Mixing business and entertainment
Like no other, Trump knew how to grab the public's attention, as seen here in a show for "World Wrestling Entertainment." His unique blend of business and entertainment acumen met in the reality TV show "The Apprentice" where candidates were hired and fired. Trump's favorite line from the show: "You're fired!"
Image: Getty Images/B. Pugliano
Trump's move into politics
Though he had previously had very little contact with governing or politics, Trump announced his presidential candidacy on July 16, 2015. He used "Make America Great Again" as a political slogan and during his election campaign insulted immigrants, Muslims, women and everyone running against him.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/J. Lane
Off to Washington
Whether the showman morphs into a statesman will be seen over Trump's four years in the White House. Views are split as he prepares to take office. But if his life so far is anything to go by, there is no telling what will be next.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/M. Ngan
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I think another one is that the situation in the Middle East has potentially changed quite significantly. It is not just a humanitarian crisis, which we have seen in Aleppo and across Syria. It is also a shift in the strategic lineup in the Middle East, for the moment anyway. So much so that Russia has a much bigger role than it has had before and Iran also has a very solid role. Saudi Arabia is very much on the back foot. The US also has some choices to make there about how to react to that. And so do the Europeans - because it is right on our doorstep.
The third thing, which I will point to on a much more optimistic note, I think that the agreement between FARC and the government in Colombia, although it does not completely end the violence and civil war in the country, is a massively positive step forward and could be the precursor for Latin America finally becoming a peaceful continent. Couple that by consolidating the democratic gains in the last 25 to 30 years, and with that also them becoming more prosperous and so on.
You mentioned a number of difficult issues with question marks. Do you expect the MSC to help find some answers, given that a number of key players will be present?
It would be nice to think so. But I think, with the Trump administration so early in its life and with China still figuring what its reaction is or might be to whatever it is that the US could or will do, I think it is going to take some time before the new international order, if indeed we are moving into one, starts to take real shape. I think that maybe some of the question marks might shift around a little bit while we are in Munich. But I am sure we will come out with almost as many question marks as we have going in.
Beijing's island-building in the South China Sea
Satellite images show the extent and speed of China's land reclamation activities in disputed waters of the South China Sea. The new land masses are believed to be primarily military installations.
Image: CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative/DigitalGlobe
Runway
China is expanding the construction of its facilities on Fiery Cross Reef. Provided by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), this June 28, 2015 photo reveals Beijing has nearly completed a 3,000 meter (9,800-foot) airstrip, long enough to accommodate most Chinese military aircraft. Two helipads, up to 10 satellite communications antennas, and one possible radar tower are also visible.
Image: CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative/DigitalGlobe
Expansion
Reclamation on Fiery Cross Reef, which lies on the west side of the Spratly Islands, began in August of 2014 and its principal landmass was finished by November. Dredgers have created a land mass that spans the entire existing reef and is approximately 3,000 meters long and 200-300 meters wide.
Image: Reuters//U.S. Navy
Facilities
This picture taken last November shows construction work being carried out on Fiery Cross Reef. The reef reportedly already houses a helicopter landing pad, a 300-meter-long wharf, a harbor large enough to dock military tankers, barracks and artillery emplacements.
Image: CSIS, IHS Jane's
South Johnson Reef
This reef was one of the first facilities to finish principal land reclamation. This recent picture shows that a radar tower is nearing completion at the north end of the land mass. According to AMTI, a new large multi-level military facility has been built in the center of the island. Up to six surveillance towers are being constructed alongside four possible weapons towers.
Image: Asia Maritime Transparency Iniative
A naval base?
Beginning in early 2015, Mischief Reef - also located in the Spratlys - has undergone extensive reclamation activity. Experts say that the recent widening of the southern entrance to the reef, coupled with sightings of Chinese navy vessels, may suggest a future role for the reclaimed reef as a naval base. Taken on March 17, this image shows a chain of small land formations at the reef.
Image: CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative/DigitalGlobe
From reef to island
Significant construction on Gaven Reef began in 2014, with a total of 114,000 square meters of land already created. Satellite pictures show just how fast construction has progressed on the reef. A new artificial island was created between March (left) and August (right) 2014.
According to AMTI, China has had a troop garrison on Gaven Reef since 2003, which has included a large supply platform where ships can dock. Experts say a new main square building in the reef appears to be an anti-aircraft tower.
Image: AMTI
A standardized process
As seen in this image, the basic process of expanding these features involves dredging sand from the seafloor and dumping it onto the reefs. The structure is raised above the high water line, hiding the status of the bank or reef beneath. The sand is then smoothed out and workers surround the island with a concrete barrier to protect against erosion and storm surge, and begin construction.
Image: CSIS
'Historic rights'
China claims most of the potentially energy-rich waterway, through which $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. The US Pacific Fleet commander recently said China was "creating a great wall of sand" in the South China Sea, causing serious concerns about its territorial intentions. Beijing argues it is asserting its so-called "historic rights" to maritime resources in the area.
Image: DW
Territorial disputes
The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have overlapping claims, which have led to territorial disputes in the area. Last summer, China's deployment of a massive oil rig in waters also claimed by Hanoi escalated tensions in the region, sparking a standoff at sea and violent anti-Chinese demonstrations in Vietnam.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo
US concerns
Washington is concerned China's efforts carry a military dimension that could undermine the US' naval and economic power in the Pacific, and has weighed sending warships and surveillance aircraft within 12 nautical miles of the new artificial islands. Washington has repeatedly called on Beijing and others to end reclamation projects in the disputed waters, but Beijing rejects those demands.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/M. Abbugao
Ecological impact
The Philippines filed a formal plea at the UN last year, challenging Beijing's territorial claims. Manila said China's reclamation activities are causing "irreversible and widespread damage to the biodiversity and ecological balance of the South China Sea." It also claimed that the destruction of coral reef systems is estimated to cause economic losses valued at $100 million annually.
Image: CC2.0/TheAnimalDay
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What kind of panel or what kind of meeting are you looking forward to especially?
I think the sort of megatopic, the overarching question which I am particularly interested in at the moment, is the balance or perhaps even a conflict between particularism on the one hand and the rule of law on the other.
Do the big powers - the US, Russia, China and other rising powers in the world - do they stand for the rule of law and for strong international institutions? Or do they stand for their interest first above everybody else and above everything else? And that seems to me to be an extremely important issue: to find out what the balance is going to be. Big powers of course always want a system that favors them and always want to take best advantage of the system for their own interest, but have also in years past had an investment in the world system, even as it was actually during the Cold War period. Is that going to be the same now? Or is it going to be different? I think that is one big megatopic, and I will be looking for answers to that.
The other thing - and this is what I really appreciate about the Munich Security Conference - is the chance for open exchanges. There is a degree of confidence about these challenging questions. The world does feel very insecure to most experts, observers and policymakers at the moment. Good, open, honest exchange about what the dilemmas, risks and problems are is something that we can only benefit from.
