Around 10,000 people filled Bratislava's Freedom Square on Tuesday evening to protest the policies of Prime Minister Robert Fico's government, with rallies also taking place in several other cities across Slovakia.

The turnout was smaller than last week, when 16,000 gathered in the capital. On that occasion, demonstrators also heard four liberal opposition parties announce a cooperation deal.

The protests are an extension of the series of demonstrations that began after Fico returned as prime minister in late 2023.

They also add to a growing list of challenges — both domestic and international — faced by the strongman premier.

International opprobrium

At the international level, attention remains focused on Fico's cozy relations with Russia and China, which sparked the early grassroots-led protests.

European noses were put out of joint again by Fico's early September meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, his refusal to stop buying Russian energy and his push to change the constitution to give Slovak law precedence over that of the EU.

All this, alongside authoritarian clampdowns on media and NGOs, has reportedly convinced the Party of European Socialists (PES) to permanently exclude Fico's nominally left-leaning Smer party from the EU faction.

Michal Simecka, leader of the opposition liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS) party, told DW that the move, which PES is expected to ratify in mid-October, "marks a significant blow to Mr. Fico's reputation."

Domestic issues more important to Slovaks

However, analysts say that the depth of political polarization in Slovakia means that international issues barely make a mark there at present.

Radoslav Stefancik of the University of Economics in Bratislava told DW that the move by PES "will not even be noticed by Smer voters."

Domestic issues are clearly the main battleground in Slovakia right now.

Recent opposition rallies, which have been organized under the banner "Protest against impoverishment!" have aimed squarely at Fico's economic policies.

They are a response to a consolidation package announced by the government, its third set of austerity measures since taking power.

The package, which was approved by Slovakia's parliament on Wednesday evening, is a bid to contain the country's economic crisis, a struggle not helped by US tariffs on Slovakia's key auto industry.

It aims to cut €2.7bn from the 2026 budget deficit. While no one disputes the need to act, the emphasis on raising taxes and contributions, slashing public sector salaries and jobs and cutting social benefits is provoking fury.

Critics contend that the package will hit ordinary citizens while sparing oligarchs linked to Fico's Smer party. Business groups complain it will weaken competitiveness.

The government's media office did not respond to a request for comment.

Government instability

Some suggest that the widespread anger over the consolidation plan could revive the instability that has plagued the three-party governing coalition since it came to power almost two years ago.

After slipping to a minority earlier this year as rebel MPs sought to leverage the government's slim majority to push through demands, Fico bought back their loyalty with ministerial posts, leaving him with 79 of the 150 seats in parliament.

Adrius Tursa of the London-based risk consultancy Teneo Intelligence said in an analysis note that he expects the parliamentary debate on the package to "test Fico's fragile majority."

Coalition partners unwilling to rock the boat

The opposition is keen to use the current situation to help push the coalition over the edge. But this will be no easy task.

Although, as Simecka says, "the representatives of each party are now publicly bickering about the consolidation package," Smer's junior coalition partners — the center-left Hlas and radical-right Slovak National Party — are wary of rocking the boat, given they've seen their support fall since the last election.

None of them "wants to repeat the situation from 2020 to 2023, when they were in opposition," says Stefancik.

Would voters back the liberals?

At the same time, voters have not forgotten those same three years when a bickering governing coalition cobbled together by liberal parties caused chaos.

Asked how they can convince the country that the newly announced cooperation deal will be different, Simecka stressed that PS has been "touring the regions … talking to disenchanted people who voted for Fico's coalition."

However, analysts suggest that these voters — most of whom belong to the poorer cohort and will feel the economic effects of the consolidation package most keenly — are more likely to turn to parties such as the far-right Republika than to the liberal parties.

Link to the past

Aware of this threat, some in the liberal opposition are attempting to use Fico's pro-Russian stance to draw a line linking the controversy over the consolidation package to 1989's Velvet Revolution.

Perhaps the most contentious part of the consolidation package is a proposal to ditch two national holidays, one of which is the November 17 celebration of the revolt that kick-started the collapse of the communist regime in erstwhile Czechoslovakia.

Some opposition parties have called for a general strike to mark the date, as happened 36 years ago.

However, others among the opposition are wary that it could prove an embarrassing — and extremely expensive — flop.

Observers appear no less skeptical. Andrej Matisak, an editor at the Slovak broadsheet Pravda, brands the idea "unrealistic," insisting that the momentum is not there to carry it off.

Radoslav Stefancik notes that the mood in the country is very different today than it was in 1989: "At that time, the majority sought democracy, political freedoms and a market economy," he says. "Now the country is polarized, and many would not join the protest."

Simecka suggests that his PS party will remain patient, insisting that it "stands ready to challenge Mr. Fico in the upcoming elections, whether they come in two years or tomorrow."

Observers suggest that the scheduled date of 2027 appears the most likely.

Fico already gave up power once in 2018, following the murder of journalist Jan Kuciak, and ended up in the political wasteland and facing prosecution. "He's not going to do that again without a big fight," says Matisak.

Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan