For nearly 20 years, South Africa has balanced relations between Washington and Beijing. Until 2008, the United States of America (US) was South Africa's top trading partner — before China overtook it, reaching a bilateral trade volume of $52.5 billion (€44.25 billion) in 2024.

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), passed by US Congress in 2000 with the aim of boosting economic support for sub-Saharan Africa, offered duty‑free access to the US market for around 1,800 South African products. But the stability that it offered has been shaken to its core.

In 2025, the Trump administration imposed a blanket 30% tariff on all South African imports, a move that analysts note goes against the spirit of the bill. This year, Trump renewed AGOA, extending it only until December 31, 2026, far shorter than the previous 15 and 10-year renewals.

Conditions that once made the US a reliable market now appear fragile and politically volatile, driving South Africa to seek alternatives.

"South Africa faces a dilemma in certain industries, but not in most of the industries," Emmanuel Matambo, Research Director at the Center for Africa‑China Studies, told DW.

"When you look at the trade numbers that South Africa has had in the past 15 years, there's no comparison between China and the United States."

South Africa's deepening ties with China

China's importance cannot be overstated. In 2025, South Africa exported over $13.5 billion worth of goods to China, primarily minerals and metals, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade.

China, for its part, is deepening its market access in Africa. In 2024, it removed customs duties on imports from 33 least developed countries in Africa and grew Africa‑China trade to $296 billion.

South Africa recently signed the Comprehensive Agreement on Economic Partnership, which aims to provide duty‑free access for select South African exports — especially agricultural products — to the massive Chinese consumer market. China imported $207.4 billion in agricultural products globally in 2025.

These shifts reflect South Africa's proactive move to mitigate growing risks associated with the US market. The business and diplomatic community in South Africa seems confident about President Cyril Ramaphosa's pivot towards Beijing.

"China and South Africa have a great relationship, quite strong. Together we have totaled bilateral trade of $47.7 billion," Phuti Joyce Tsipa, South Africa's Consul General in Shanghai, China, told DW.

"There is so much we can offer to China and there is so much China can offer to South Africa and Africa."

Currently, China consumes the lion's share of South African exports, while the US accounts for only a small fraction. China is also South Africa's largest importer and buyer of mineral resources, including gold, iron ore, manganese, and more.

Meanwhile, only 0.2% of total US imports came from South Africa, making South Africa negligible from Washington's economic perspective.

The tariff question: Can South Africa redirect exports?

China's demand for South African products is mostly for minerals and raw materials, while the US buys high‑value items such as vehicles and certain agricultural goods. For example, cars and car parts — South Africa's top US export — do not match China's import needs, especially now that China has overtaken Japan as the world's top automobile exporter.

For China-Africa trade expert Matambo, South Africa's car and horticultural industries may face some headwinds, as these were the main exports to the US before Trump's unilateral tariffs.

"I don't think South Africa is being pulled between the US and China, especially when it comes to trade. When it comes to the politics of it all, that is another issue altogether."

Nonetheless, Matambo explained it would not be easy for South Africa to transfer some of the exports it had shipped to the United States to China.

Duty‑free access alone won't rebalance trade. South Africa's exports to China remain dominated by low‑value‑added raw materials — ores, metals, and agricultural commodities — while imports from China are primarily manufactured goods. Value addition within Africa remains essential for addressing the persistent trade imbalance.

South Africa's 'wobbly' place in AGOA

Many economists agree, given that AGOA still provides duty‑free access to thousands of US-bound products. Even if some are overridden by tariffs, South Africa has more to lose by voluntarily exiting the agreement.

"It would be ill‑advised for South Africa to pull out of AGOA," Matambo said. "That would be cutting your nose to spite your face."

But with Trump threatening exclusions and escalating punitive trade tariffs against countries he considers unfriendly to his "America First" policy, AGOA remains on unstable ground.

In 2025, US–South Africa relations deteriorated over geopolitical disputes involving BRICS+, the Israeli war in Gaza, and allegations of 'genocide' being perpetrated against White South African farmers.

While Matambo emphasized that South Africa has every right and responsibility to find alternative markets, he suggested Pretoria should first increase its trade within the continent. He said: "Charity begins at home. Africa first, China, the Asian countries and the European Union (EU)."

Data support his claim: In 2025, Africa absorbed more than half of South Africa's agricultural exports, valued at $8 billion, making the continent the largest market for South African agricultural products.

According to Matambo, diversification — not replacement — is South Africa's safest path forward.

Thuso Khumalo contributed to this article, adapted from the AfricaLink Podcast 

Edited by: Cai Nebe