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ConflictsSouth Africa

Analysis: What's at stake for South Africa in DRC crisis?

February 4, 2025

Relations between Rwanda and South Africa have soured as security deteriorates in eastern DR Congo. As the violence escalates, both regional powers seem unable to build bridges - but why?

Protrait picture of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is trying to approach the DRC crisis diplomatically — with little success Image: Emmanuel Durand/AP Photo/picture alliance

While the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the East African Community (EAC) scramble to end the fighting in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),  a war of words between South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and his Rwandan counterpart, Paul Kagame, has escalated further.

Even a one-sided temporary ceasefire to allow humanitarian access declared by the Congo River Alliance, which includes the M23 rebels, has done little to calm leaders in Kigali and Pretoria. 

Following the deaths of 13 South African soldiers near Goma in eastern DRC last week, Ramaphosa called for a measured approach by Rwanda, signaling that South Africa ultimately holds Kagame's government responsible for propping up M23 rebels with the help of the Rwandan Defence Forces (RDF).

South African leader Cyril Ramaphosa and his Rwandan counterpart, Paul Kagame, have been engaged in an unprecedented war of wordsImage: Jerome Delay/AP Photo/Stephane Lemouton/ABACAPRESS.COM/picture alliance

"Without Rwanda's support, those [M23] rebels would not be able to act in the way they have been," Phil Clark, professor of International Politics at SOAS, University of London, told DW during the last major M23 campaign in 2022.

South African leader Ramaphosa has said any further attacks on his troops in eastern Congo would amount to "a declaration of war." 

Kagame, meanwhile, took exception to Ramaphosa's calls for a UN-backed ceasefire, accusing the South African leader of distorting facts and saying "if South Africa prefers confrontation, Rwanda will deal with the matter in that context any day."

A history of disagreement

This is not the first time Rwanda and South Africa have squared off — although it might be the most public instance to date.

In 2021, South Africa accused Rwanda of spying on President Ramaphosa, as details emerged about the Pegasus spy-ware affair.

In 2014, South Africa expelled Rwandan diplomats after claiming they were implicit in the murder of a Rwandan political dissident, former spy boss Patrick Karegeya, at a luxury hotel in Sandton just outside Johannesburg.

In 2013, South African forces backed by UN peacekeepers repelled rebels linked to the M23 movement succesfully as part of the Force Intervention Brigade (FIB) in the eastern DRC. 

But perhaps above all, in 2002, then-South African President Thabo Mbeki led the Pretoria peace agreement to end years of conflict in eastern Congo, with a result that left Rwanda at a disadvantage.

Kagame, who was then only two years into his presidency, wanted to achieve a better first deal to end rebel fighting in a strategic region, which is fertile and among the world's richest in rare-earth materials.

"[Rwanda has] business interests, they have farm land, they have agricultural interests; many Rwandan families are very entangled in the economy across the border," Clark said, adding that for years, many on the Rwandan side of the border who are not even associated with rebel groups have felt short-changed.

Prospect of a Trumpian deal

After 25 years in power, Kagame's government may now seek to give Rwanda at least some leverage over those precious resources and other interests in eastern DRC — and with Donald Trump back in the White House, the autocratic Rwandan leader might find a more accommodating partner.

Regional expert Lionel Manzi of the Pan African Review says Trump might choose to side with Kagame in the conflict rather than Ramaphosa — depending on what's in it for the United States — after the previous US government failed to deliver peace:

"The Trump team can take the principled stand that business can only be sustainable and thrive when the conditions for peace are in place," he wrote, adding the US might  withdraw support from international peacekeeping missions such as MONUSCO — in the kind of "deal" that Trump appears to be focusing on in his foreign policy agenda so far.

Could Rwanda turn to US President Donald Trump to gain a competitive edge in the ongoing conflict?Image: Alex Brandon/AP/picture alliance

Without US support, many believe UN missions like MONUSCO in the DRC are likely to fail due to funding shortages — as seen already in the effects of Trump's defunding of US aid projects across Africa

In that scenario, the current SADC mission led by South Africa in the DRC, which already is suffering major personnel and weapons shortages in the ongoing conflict, could also fall apart.

South Africa's (not so) unassuming cash cow

Rwanda — one of Africa's smallest nations — might also benefit from having a senior partner like the US symbolically on its side, when another country like South Africa tries to hold Rwanda accountable for its role in the conflict.

This type of alliance could be useful whenever there's a diplomatic fall-out like the one between Ramaphosa and Kagame.

There is more at risk for South Africa: Following Mbeki's 2002 peace deal in the DRC, multiple South African businesses — many with links to the government — expanded their operations into the DRC and have been thriving there for over two decades.

While job creation and stabilizing the Congolese economy might have been legitimate motivations for South Africa's involvement, former President Mbeki also made sure trade and investment tenders issued for the DRC by the World Bank to the tune of $4 billion at the time would go directly to South African-owned companies.

In 2002, former South African Prsident Thabo Mbeki brought peace to the DRC — and business opportunities back to South AfricaImage: MICHELE SPATARI/AFP

Regulatory changes in DRC impacting South African business

However, not everyone believes Ramaphosa's government is driven purely by dollar signs:

"We know [Cyril Ramaphosa's] ANC party to always be so corrupt and so bent on economic opportunities, but I don't think that's the motivation here," says Stephanie Wolters, a researcher at the South African Institute of International Affairs in South Africa and one of the directors of Okapi Consulting in Johannesburg. 

"South Africa wanted to get involved because the DRC is a member state of SADC, and they wanted to assist for the prestige as a peacekeeper, which is what South Africa also did in 2013 with the FIB."

But South Africa's interests have another problem.

"The DRC has a set of new regulations regarding transformation and localization laws. Previously, South African companies and consultancies could conduct work there with less interference," geology and mining expert Megan Du Plooy told DW from Johannesburg.

"But now, because of the significant amount of work they do there, it is preferential for the DRC to push foreign companies to work with local partners. Many geological and mining companies now have to set up local branches in DRC, which have to be co-owned by local entities," Du Plooy said.

M23 rebels in DRC vow to 'march to Kinshasa'

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South Africa: a weak diplomat and negotiator?

Wolters however believes this is exactly why economic motivations cannot be at the heart of the issue:

"South Africa has been incredibly bad at its formal economic diplomacy. It has never translated its extensive involvement politically and militarily into any kind of business expansion," she told DW, highlighting that while there are many South African mining services companies involved in the region, "none of them are big South African-run mines."

Fears DR Congo conflict could widen

04:26

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Still, the list of South African companies that have been raking in profits directly or indirectly since the Pretoria peace agreement of 2002 is long, and includes major players like G4 Securicor, Standard Bank, Vodacom, AngloGold Ashanti, De Beers and many more.

Allegations of Ramaphosa's personal interests

Ramaphosa and several other South African industrustrialists also have interests in at least some of those companies, casting further doubts over the country's impartiality in the conflict.

Rwandan Government Spokesperson Yolande Makolo claimed as much on X, saying President Ramaphosa should disclose "the personal interests in mining that you have in the DRC."

While Makolo is hardly impartial, a total collapse of the status quo in eastern DRC could indeed directly echo all the way back to the Johannesburg Stock Exchange at a time when South Africa's economy is already in damage-control mode — a risk current President Ramaphosa is unwilling to take.

The same likely is true for Kinshasa:

"Both South Africa and the DRC benefit from importing goods from each other. South Africa imports a vast amount of minerals from the DRC each year. Conflict will have a massive impact all along the mining value chain, for both countries," says Du Plooy.

There is also a significant trade volume between South Africa and Rwanda at play, with South Africa estimated to have exported around $122 million in goods to Rwanda in 2022 (with negligibly small imports from Rwanda to South Africa), according to the privately operated Observatory of Economic Complexity.

However, the stakes in the eastern DRC seem considerably higher for South Africa, as Ramaphosa and his government have a partner in DRC President Felix Tshisekedi who does not lash out publicly against South Africa's interests - unlike Kagame.

Edited by: Cai Nebe

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