The South Korean government has announced plans to develop nuclear-powered attack submarines, with the first vessel to be operational by the mid-2030s, as part of an effort to strengthen its naval capabilities.

Analysts point out that when taken with developments already under way or being considered by China, North Korea and Japan, it is clear that northeast Asia is already very firmly embroiled in an undersea arms race.

Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back unveiled Seoul's plan at a Tuesday meeting of the Future Defense Strategy Committee at the naval base in Jinhae, emphasizing the importance of developing a system to counter North Korea's advances in submarine technology.

The plan — known as the Jangbogo-N Project, after the South's first submarine — emphasizes that nuclear-powered submarines "possess dramatically enhanced operational capabilities compared to existing diesel submarines."

The submarines will therefore "play a core role in responding to threats such as North Korea's submarine-launched nuclear and missile threats," according to the Defense Ministry.

The Ministry described the plan as a "national strategic project" that will utilize South Korea's shipbuilding and nuclear power technologies, with a decade-long construction period expected and and a 30-year operational life.

US helps Asian ally to develop submarine

Seoul is pushing ahead with the plan after the United States endorsed South Korea's pursuit of conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines, with Washington also pledging to help its Asian ally build the vessels, including their propulsion systems.

There appear to be some wrinkles to iron out between the two countries.

During talks with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung in October, US President Donald Trump said the submarines would be built in Philadelphia. However, a more recent statement insists they will be constructed in South Korea.

Nevertheless, the announcement marks significant progress in a South Korean ambition that dates back to the early 1990s.

"A combination of military, corporate and political actors in South Korea has long wanted to pursue nuclear-powered submarines and Trump is the first American president to greenlight the effort with Seoul," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.

Yet "political will, diplomatic approval and defense budgets are not the only hurdles to clear," he told DW, pointing to the need to address technology transfer and nonproliferation concerns, as well as "significant and time-consuming" industrial challenges.

Choo Jae-woo, a professor of foreign policy at Kyung Hee University in Seoul, said there are a number of strategic reasons behind the government's decision.

"We need to strengthen our naval power to counter North Korea but also to resist increasing incursions into our territorial waters in the West Sea by China," he said. "These submarines would also be useful in the East Sea and to the south of the peninsula."

'Strengthen defenses against North Korea'

"There is a need to strengthen our defenses against the nuclear threats posed by North Korea, which we know has developed a submarine that is capable of launching ballistic missiles," Choo said.

Beyond the defense realm, the project will help expand South Korea's nuclear industry, Choo added, allowing for the enrichment of uranium and promoting the development of technology needed to reprocess the growing stockpiles of nuclear waste at civilian energy facilities.

South Korean lawmaker and defense expert Yu Yong-weon noted that nuclear-powered submarines are faster and can remain underwater far longer than diesel-powered equivalents, meaning that they would enhance monitoring of North Korean submarines.

However, Mason Richey, a professor of politics and international relations at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul, is less convinced of the South Korean military's need for the vessels.

"The North's submarine fleet is very weak and their ballistic missile boats are based on old Soviet-era submarines that are very noisy, have limited capabilities and will be very easy to track if they leave port," Richey said.

Kim Jong-un inspects submarine

And while Pyongyang periodically releases images of Kim Jong-un inspecting warships — including submarines — and claims to be expanding its navy, Richey points out that achieving a significant leap will be difficult. 

Richey also believes that the Trump administration has given the green-light to Seoul's plan in part because it hopes US allies in the Indo-Pacific region will commit forces should a crisis erupt over the Taiwan Strait and that a new generation of South Korean submarines would be a valuable asset.

In reality, however, the present left-leaning government in Seoul has indicated that it has no desire to become embroiled in any conflict with its powerful neighbor.

Another factor to consider, Richey said, would be South Korea developing sufficient capability to make it a "threshold nuclear power," which could be of benefit to Seoul and the US should regional tensions bubble over into outright hostility.

But there is little doubt that Seoul's move is an escalation of the already evolving desire for greater military capabilities by governments in the region.

Asked if Seoul's announcement is the harbinger of a subsurface arms race, Richey replied, "We are already there."

"China is obviously building out its own capabilities, North Korea is clearly trying to add more and more capable boats and now South Korea is taking this course," he said.

In December, Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi conceded that adopting nuclear propulsion for the next generation of Japanese attack submarines was "an option."

Edited by: Keith Walker