After nearly a decade of birth rates in steady decline, South Korea reversed that trend to report a significant uptick in newborns in 2024. 

Announced by the government-run Statistics Korea agency on February 26, a total of 238,300 babies were born last year, up 3.6% from a record low of just 230,000 in 2023.

And while the increase is certainly grounds for celebration in a nation that is recognized as one of the most rapidly contracting and aging in the world, analysts caution that the rebound is the result of a series of unique factors and that the longer-term outlook remains bleak.

"South Korea's population crisis is just beginning," said Hyobin Lee, a professor at Sogang University in Seoul.

"With a total fertility rate that is still below 1.0, the situation is becoming increasingly severe and I believe that fewer people will choose to have children in the future," she told DW. "Gender conflicts are also intensifying and economic inequality is worsening."

According to Statistics Korea, the nation's total fertility rate, or the average number of children that a woman will give birth to during her lifetime, rose from 0.72 in 2023 to 0.75 in 2024. Yet that figure is still short of the rate of 2.1 children per woman that is generally considered necessary to maintain a stable population.

Spike in weddings

The rise in newborns in 2024 also coincided with a sharp increase in weddings in South Korea, with the number of marriages leaping by 14.9%, the biggest increase since comparable statistics were first collated in 1970.

Speaking at a press briefing in Seoul on February 26, Joo Hyung-hwan, Vice Chair of the Presidential Committee on an Aging Society and Population Policy, said the rebound "is an important step in reversing the long-standing trend of the country's low birth rates, which suggests that government policies have begun to have an effect and increasingly resonate with the public."

Last year, now-suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol declared that the nation was facing a "demographic crisis" and pledged that it would be the top priority for his government. Initiatives by previous governments had focused primarily on one-off cash payments to parents, with the amount increasing for additional children.

For many in a country where the cost of housing and education are high, that was not enough of an incentive to have large families.

The government of Yoon — a conservative who is now on trial for alleged abuse of office — altered the law to require companies to pay the full salary of a new parent who takes time off for a maximum of six months after a child is born. That is up from three months previously.

That period is extended to 18 months if both parents take leave from their jobs, up from one year previously.

Companies obliged to assist

From this year, it is mandatory for listed companies to provide details of their child- and parent-friendly policies in regulatory filings, with small- and medium-sized firms eligible to claim grants to support their operations while staff are on parental leave.

The government is also earmarking 19.7 trillion Korean won (€12.9 billion, $13.5 billion) for extra support for families, up 22% from last year, including for shorter working hours for parents for up to two years and paid leave to undergo fertility treatment.

Yet analysts remain unconvinced.

"There was a change in the trends for both marriages and births that I believe reflects the nosedive we saw in those figures during the coronavirus pandemic," said Park Saing-in, an economist at Seoul National University.

"I do not think this represents a fundamental change, because over the last 30 years, we have seen the number of people getting married cut in half," he told DW. "That has had a major impact on social issues, from employment rates to incomes to retirement, making it a structural issue for South Korean society."

The nation also has some traditional attitudes that have impacted birth statistics, including a stigma attached to children born out of wedlock and single mothers.

The other major factor influencing couples' decisions on having children is, inevitably, the cost, Park said.

"Raising a child is very costly in South Korea," he said. "Living costs are high, accommodation is expensive in the big cities and education is also a significant factor," he added. "Given that, after this recovery from the pandemic has played out, I expect the birth rate to return to being in decline in a year or so."

Post-pandemic rebound?

Lee agrees, pointing out that it is widely accepted that many weddings that would have taken place during the pandemic were put off but are now taking place, accounting for the surge in marriages. A similar explanation can be applied to the number of children being born.

"Another contributing factor is the rise in international marriages," she pointed out. "In 2023, one out of every 10 married couples in South Korea was in an international marriage, and the birth rate among internationally married couples tends to be higher than that among Korean couples."

"To make the increase in birth rates more sustainable in the long term, the government should implement policies similar to those in France, where men are also required to take parental leave," Lee suggested.

"One of the main reasons women choose not to have children is the fear of disruption to their careers," she added. "Companies are reluctant to hire women because of concerns over maternity leave and childcare responsibilities. However, if men are also expected to take on childcare responsibilities, the gender gap in employment would be reduced."

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru