After the death of the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il last month, South Korea and Japan immediately put their militaries on alert. There were calls on all sides for parties to refrain from all provocation on the Korean Peninsula. So far, there have been no military consequences but there is a frenzy of diplomatic activity underway.

While the new North Korean leader Kim Jong Un continues to consolidate his power in Pyongyang, his South Korean counterpart Lee Myung Bak has been in China since Monday, discussing ways of keeping the situation under control.

China is North Korea's most important ally, its biggest trade partner and its main supplier of food, arms and fuel. However, Beijing is increasingly reluctant to always stand by Pyongyang's side.

"There are contradictory opinions towards North Korea in China. Most Chinese and the political elite think that the regime is completely anachronistic," says Patrick Köllner from the German Institute of Global and Area Studies.

The defiant North

However, there are two main reasons why it is still in China's interests that the regime remains in power. A collapse of North Korea would lead to hundreds of thousands of refugees crossing the border into China's northeastern provinces and destabilizing the situation.

Secondly, it fears otherwise that Korean reunification will take place "under capitalist, pro-American conditions and lead to US troops being stationed on the Chinese border," says Hanns Günther Hilpert from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, saying this would be the "worst-case scenario."

Nonetheless, Beijing does not have a free hand. When North Korea carried out a first atomic test in October 2006, China signed a UN resolution to impose tougher sanctions on North Korea and Hu Jintao warned Kim Jong Il against any further provocation.

This seemed to be in vain when a second test was conducted almost three years later. Pyongyang "must have embarrassed, even angered, China," Alan Romberg, director of the East Asia program at the Henry L. Stimson Center, said at the time.

Limited rapprochement

Inter-Korean relations are a different kettle of fish. The two states have been irreconcilable since the end of the Korean War in 1953. When he came to power, Lee Myung Bak advocated a harder line against Pyongyang and there have been a series of tense moments in the past few years. Köllner thinks the "prospects for a rapprochement between the two Koreas are limited this year. The situation would have to change in both the North and South."

On Monday, Lee Myung Bak's Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao nudged him to improve ties with the reclusive North.

In a statement on Tuesday, Lee's office said that China and South Korea "shared the view that denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula as well as peace and stability are of paramount importance and agreed to continue to closely consult each other."

The two countries have also agreed to begin domestic procedures to start negotiations on a free trade agreement that is expected to include Japan in future. Bilateral trade has risen from $6 billion to $200 billion over the past decade.

Author: Rodion Ebbighausen /act (Reuters, AFP)
Editor: Darren Mara