South Korean politics is likely to be confrontational and chaotic for the foreseeable future after the country's Constitutional Court on Monday held its first meeting on the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol.

The National Assembly on Saturday passed Yoon's impeachment motion, 11 days after he declared martial law only to have it overturned hours later. However, it is up to the court to decide whether to remove Yoon from office or restore his powers. 

In the meantime, Yoon has been suspended from his duties and Han Duck-soo, who was previously the prime minister, is now South Korea's acting president.

Han Dong-hoon, the leader of the ruling People Power Party (PPP), on Monday stepped down from the role "due to the collapse of the party's Supreme Council."

Han vowed he would "devote all my energy and efforts to ensuring stability" — although analysts say the opposition Democratic Party knows it has the government on the ropes and will settle for nothing less than a general election.

Democratic Party favored

With more than 70% of the South Korean public demanding Yoon's impeachment, there is little doubt that the opposition Democratic Party would sweep to power under Lee Jae-myung, even though he also has legal issues hanging over his head.

"Yoon's impeachment is not the end of South Korea's political turmoil. It is not even the beginning of the end, which will ultimately involve the election of a new president," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.

And while he applauded the "peaceful street protests" that emerged when the nation's democracy was under threat, Easley cautioned that the deep polarization that exists today in South Korean society remains a threat.

"While it is to be expected that a legislative opposition will use its investigative and budgetary powers in the struggle between partisan agendas, there should be accountability mechanisms against causing prolonged government dysfunction and paralysis," he told DW.

What happens next?

By law, the Constitutional Court has six months to issue its ruling, although previous claims against presidents have been handed down much more swiftly, allowing for a quicker return to political normalcy.

If Yoon's impeachment is confirmed, a general election would have to be held within two months. And even though the case against Yoon appears strong, there are complications.

The court typically has nine judges, with seven justices required to make a final decision. The court only has six judges at present, however, as the Democratic Party has been in dispute with the government in recent months and demanding it be permitted to appoint extra justices.  

Constitutional Court to deliberate impeachment

The court has said it has the authority to reach a conclusion on Yoon's impeachment, although it would only take one judge to vote against the motion for it to be defeated. Yoon previously nominated three of the judges to the court.

"It is very likely that there is going to be a good deal of confusion going forward," agreed Kim Sang-woo, a former politician with the left-leaning South Korean Congress for New Politics and now a member of the board of the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.

For now, the Democratic Party has said it will not demand impeachment proceedings against Han and other members of the Cabinet, in the interests of ensuring the government continues to function. However, Kim says that might change.

"Lee has said he will not pursue more investigations but he may change his mind if the acting president does not conduct affairs according to his party's wishes," he told DW. "If that happens, then the functioning of the government could become paralyzed as decisions could not be made or carried out.

"If the administration is so fragile, who has the responsibility for conducting foreign affairs?" he asked. "It is clear that for some time, there is going to be some confusion."

Lee and the opposition are already agitating for a general election, in part because the Democratic Party leader has been indicted on bribery, corruption, breach of trust and conflict of interest charges, including in connection with providing $8 million (€7.6 million) to North Korea. Lee has denied all wrongdoing.

Opposition leader convicted

In November, Lee was convicted of making false statements during his 2022 presidential campaign and given a one-year suspended prison sentence. He is appealing that ruling but, if it is confirmed, he will be ineligible to serve as president. If, however, he is elected before a ruling is handed down, then under Korean law the cases will be halted.

Already there are signs of friction between the two parties, with the PPP rejecting a proposal from the Democratic Party to form a joint consultative governing body to stabilize state affairs on the grounds that it is still the ruling party. Yet the PPP — only set up in 2020 through the merger of a raft of conservative parties — is riven by internal fighting over Yoon's impeachment and, some suggest, on the brink of collapse.

"The situation is very difficult and I can only hope that things begin to settle down as the court does its work," said Kim.

"The good thing is that for the average citizen of South Korea, life continues as normal, almost as if nothing has happened," he said. "Our lives are not affected and we feel no danger. People just want the process to continue and, hopefully, the situation will remain peaceful."

Edited by: Keith Walker