Angela Merkel's CDU could be heading into another grand coalition government with the center-left SPD. Social Democrat leader Martin Schulz said that the party would start exploratory talks — but with some options.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Kappeler
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The Social Democratic Party (SPD) has decided to open preliminary talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to form another grand coalition — though the center-left party was careful to underline that it wanted to keep open the possibility of a softer "cooperative coalition," while the CDU is mainly interested in forming a grand coalition.
The decision was announced at SPD headquarters in Berlin on Friday by leader Martin Schulz after a meeting of the party's 45-member leadership committee. "We will go into the talks openly and constructively," Schulz said in a press conference, before adding that the talks would begin at the start of January. The SPD has tentatively pencilled in a party congress on January 14, when it will aim to vote on the results of the exploratory talks.
Schulz said that he would meet Angela Merkel, along with other CDU and SPD leaders, before Christmas to discuss the form the talks would take. "The CDU is taking it seriously. We are also taking it seriously," Schulz said, though he was cautiously added that "there are different models of how a stable government can be formed."
Merkel for her part welcomed the move, saying she had "great respect" for the SPD's decision.
A history of Germany's coalition governments
Only once has federal Germany been ruled by a single party with a parliamentary majority. Coalitions are, therefore, the norm. DW looks at the various governing combinations that have presided in the Bundestag.
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CDU-SPD (2025-?)
Yet another coalition of the conservative Christian Democratic Union, Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and the center-left Social Democrat Party (SPD) has taken office on May 6, 2025. Both the CDU and the SPD have dwindled in recent years, so there is now no talk of "grand coalition" as they embark on a mission to save Germany's economy from decline and society from further polarization.
Image: Florian Gaertner/IMAGO
SPD-Green Party-FDP (2021-2024)
From 2021 until late 2024, Germany was governed by a center-left coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), ecologist Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), whose color is yellow. The government known as "Ampel" (traffic light) in Germany, started out as a self-declared "Fortschrittskoalition" (progress coalition) but got mired in infighting and became the least popular government ever.
Image: Michael Kappeler/dpa/picture alliance
CDU/CSU-SPD (2013-2021)
After taking more than 40% of the vote, Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives probably weren't expecting to rule with the SPD. However, her old allies, the FDP failed to meet the 5% threshold to enter the Bundestag, and options were limited. Merkel called on the SPD to join her and "take on the responsibility to build a stable government." She made the same speech again four years later.
Image: Maurizio Gambarini/dpa/picture alliance
CDU/CSU-FDP (2009-2013)
The SPD, part of the outgoing coalition, picked up a disappointing 23% in the 2009 federal election. The Free Democrats, by contrast, won more than 14% of the vote. Chancellor Angela Merkel (center) and the FDP's Guido Westerwelle (left) formed a coalition with relative ease. It was, after all, Germany's 11th CDU/CSU-FDP government.
Image: Markus Schreiber/AP Photo/picture alliance
CDU/CSU-SPD (2005-2009)
"Grand coalitions" do not come easily. When the first exit polls came in, both Gerhard Schröder (left) and Angela Merkel (right) declared themselves the winner. In the end, Merkel's conservatives defeated the SPD by just 1%. Germany's two largest parties agreed to form the country's second-ever grand coalition, and Schröder left politics.
Image: Stefan Sauer/dpa/picture alliance
SPD-Green Party (1998-2005 )
In 1998, the CDU/CSU lost a general election and SPD candidate Gerhard Schröder (left) became chancellor, heading a center-left government with the Green Party. Joschka Fischer of the Greens took over the Foreign Ministry.
Image: Andreas Altwein/dpa/picture-alliance
CDU-DSU-Democratic Awakening (1990)
Shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall, East Germany held its first free election. The Christian Democrats under Lothar de Maiziere took over 40% of the vote. They went into coalition with two small parties: German Social Union and Democratic Awakening, whose members included one Angela Merkel. In October that year, the government signed the reunification treaty with West Germany.
Image: Wolfgang Kumm/dpa/picture alliance
CDU/CSU-FDP (1982-1998)
The friendship between the SPD and FDP ended as the two parties' differing ideologies became irreconcilable in the early 1980s. The liberals again switched sides, seeking a deal with the conservatives. They formed a new CDU/CSU-FDP coalition under the leadership of Helmut Kohl (pictured), who remained chancellor for 16 years until well after German reunification.
SPD-FDP (1969-1982)
Willy Brandt (left) became Germany's first Social Democratic chancellor in the postwar period. The CDU/CSU was the strongest party, but Brandt struck a deal with the FDP to secure a narrow majority in the Bundestag. This wouldn't be the last time the FDP would be called out for a lack of loyalty. In 1974, Brandt was replaced by Helmut Schmidt (right), who went on to win two more elections.
Image: Sammy Minkoff/picture alliance
CDU/CSU - SPD (1966-1969)
The first-ever "grand coalition" was not the product of an election. Ludwig Erhard was re-elected in 1965 and continued to rule alongside the FDP who left the government in the following year over budget disputes. Erhard also resigned and Kurt Kiesinger (center) was chosen to take over. With the FDP out, he governed with the center-left Social Democrats, led by Willy Brandt.
Image: UPI/dpa/picture-alliance
CDU/CSU-FDP (1961-1966)
After four years of ruling West Germany on their own between 1957 and 1961, the conservatives lost their majority in the Bundestag and were forced to enter into coalition with the Free Democrats again. Adenauer resigned in 1963 for his part in the so-called "Spiegel" scandal. His economic affairs minister, Ludwig Erhard (left), was elected by parliament to take over.
Image: Alfred Hennig/dpa/picture-alliance
CDU/CSU-FDP-DP (1949-1961)
The first democratic government to govern West Germany since the end of World War II saw Christian Democratic Union leader Konrad Adenauer form a governing coalition with the Free Democrats and the German Party (a now-defunct national conservative party). It had a very slim majority. Small coalition partners fell by the wayside, eventually leaving the CDU/CSU to govern alone.
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The announcement represents something of a climb-down for Schulz, who announced that the SPD would go into opposition in the immediate aftermath of a historically bad election result on September 24. But the CDU's subsequent failure to form a "Jamaica" coalition with the Greens and the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) has left Germany at an unprecedented impasse, and the SPD voted last week to enter new talks.
But many in the SPD are wary about entering into another alliance with Merkel, with pundits blaming the party's slump in the polls on its failure to distinguish itself from the CDU during the last four years. The consensus for many inside and outside the party was that the SPD needed some time in opposition to reassess its policies and win back credibility in its base.
For that reason, the Social Democrats want to make sure that any preliminary coalition talks keep various options open. So how could it pan out?
'GroKo' - Grand coalition
This currently seems like the mostly likely option, though in the current fluctuating situation that is no certainty. Some 68 percent of SPD supporters are in favor of a new grand coalition, according to a poll by public broadcaster ARD, though the "Juso" SPD youth wing and the left of the party are against it.
A grand coalition would also be the CDU's preference, since it would ensure a stable working majority in the Bundestag — though it would mean sharing the cabinet ministries with the SPD.
But this would also carry risks. Fatigue at the grand coalition's relentlessly centrist approach was perceived as one reason why both parties lost ground in September's election (the CDU lost 9 percentage points, while the SPD lost 5), and a continuation of the same policies — under Merkel's passive management style — could see Germany's biggest parties lose even more favor. Another problem is that this iteration of the grand coalition will be functioning on a much slimmer majority.
The left wing of the SPD is less keen on allying with Merkel, and suggested a kind of "open relationship" with the CDU. The SPD would get to keep a few ministries, and would agree a foreshortened coalition contract that would cover only basic issues — such as the budget and Europe policy. Other issues would remain open, and would allow both parties to try to build parliamentary majorities on a range of issues. The CDU is against the idea.
CDU minority government
In this scenario, which some in the SPD actually prefer, the CDU would take all the cabinet ministries and form a government on its own, with a "toleration" agreement with the SPD that would ensure agreement on basic issues like the budget, but would leave Merkel to try to seek majorities however she can from one issue to the next.
