Angela Merkel's CDU could be heading into another grand coalition government with the center-left SPD. Social Democrat leader Martin Schulz said that the party would start exploratory talks — but with some options.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Kappeler
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The Social Democratic Party (SPD) has decided to open preliminary talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to form another grand coalition — though the center-left party was careful to underline that it wanted to keep open the possibility of a softer "cooperative coalition," while the CDU is mainly interested in forming a grand coalition.
The decision was announced at SPD headquarters in Berlin on Friday by leader Martin Schulz after a meeting of the party's 45-member leadership committee. "We will go into the talks openly and constructively," Schulz said in a press conference, before adding that the talks would begin at the start of January. The SPD has tentatively pencilled in a party congress on January 14, when it will aim to vote on the results of the exploratory talks.
Schulz said that he would meet Angela Merkel, along with other CDU and SPD leaders, before Christmas to discuss the form the talks would take. "The CDU is taking it seriously. We are also taking it seriously," Schulz said, though he was cautiously added that "there are different models of how a stable government can be formed."
Merkel for her part welcomed the move, saying she had "great respect" for the SPD's decision.
A history of Germany's coalition governments
Only once has federal Germany been ruled by a single party with a parliamentary majority. Coalitions are therefore the norm. DW looks at the various governing combinations that have presided in the Bundestag.
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CDU/CSU - FDP - DP (1949-1957)
The first democratic government to rule West Germany since the end of World War II saw Christian Democratic Union leader Konrad Adenauer form a governing coalition with the Free Democrats and the German Party (a now-defunct national conservative party). When Adenauer's conservatives won re-election four years later, he once again turned to the same coalition partners.
Image: picture-alliance/Vack
CDU/CSU - FDP (1961-1966)
After four years of ruling West Germany on their own between 1957 and 1961, the conservative Union lost their majority in the Bundestag and were forced to enter into coalition with the Free Democrats again. Adenauer resigned in 1963 for his part in the so-called "Spiegel" scandal. His Minister of Economic Affairs Ludwig Erhard (left) was elected by parliament to take over
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
CDU/CSU - SPD (1966-1969)
The first ever "grand coalition" was not the product of an election. Ludwig Erhart was re-elected in 1965 and continued to rule alongside the FDP. However, the following year the Free Democrats left the government over budget disputes. Erhart also resigned and Kurt Kiesinger (right) was chosen to take over. With the FDP out, he governed with the Social Democrats, led by Willy Brandt (left).
Image: dpa
SPD - FDP (1969-1982)
Willy Brandt became Germany's first Social Democratic chancellor in the post-war period. Despite winning fewer votes than the CDU/CSU, Brandt struck a deal with the FDP to give them a narrow majority in the Bundestag. It wouldn't be the last time the liberals would be called out for a perceived lack of loyalty. In 1974, Brandt was replaced by Helmut Schimdt, who went on to win two more elections.
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CDU/CSU - FDP (1982-1998)
The 13-year friendship between the SPD and FDP ended in 1980 as the two parties' differing ideologies became irreconcilable. The liberals again switched sides that year, dropping out of the coalition and seeking a deal with the conservatives. That caused the SPD-led government to collapse and a reborn CDU/CSU-FDP coalition formed under the leadership of Helmut Kohl (pictured).
Image: AP
CDU - DSU - Democratic Awakening (1990)
Shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall, East Germany held its first ever elections. The Christian Democrats under Lothar de Maiziere took over 40 percent of the vote. They went into coalition with two small parties: German Social Union and Democratic Awakening, whose members included one Angela Merkel. In October that year, the government signed the reunification treaty with West Germany.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Wolfgang Kumm
SPD - Green Party (1998-2005)
In 2002, Helmut Kohl's 16-year rule came to an end and the Social Democrats under Gerhard Schröder returned to power. The SPD formed a coalition with the Green party, who became a governing party less than 20 years after being founded. Unlike under Brandt, the SPD now led a left-wing government, rather than a center-left coalition. The SPD-Green party coalition remained in power until 2005.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/W. Baum
CDU/CSU - SPD (2005-2009)
"Grand coalitions" do not come easily. When the first exit polls came in, both Schröder (right) and Angela Merkel (left) declared themselves the winner. In the end, Merkel's conservatives defeated the SPD by just 1 percent. Germany's two largest parties agreed to form the country's second-ever grand coalition.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Bensch
CDU/CSU - FDP (2009-2013)
The "grand coalition" experiment ended in 2009, after the SPD picked up a disappointing 23 percent in the federal elections. The Free Democrats, by contrast, gained almost 5 percent to give them over 14 percent of the vote. Merkel and the FDP's Guido Westerwelle (left) formed a coalition with relative ease. It was, after all, Germany's 11th CDU/CSU-FDP government.
Image: Getty Images/A. Rentz
CDU/CSU - SPD (2013-?)
After taking more than 40 percent of the vote, Merkel's conservatives probably weren't expecting to rule with the SPD. But with her old allies the FDP failing to meet the 5 percent threshold to enter the Bundestag, options were limited. Merkel called on the SPD to join her and "take on the responsibility to build a stable government." She made the same speech again four years later.
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The announcement represents something of a climb-down for Schulz, who announced that the SPD would go into opposition in the immediate aftermath of a historically bad election result on September 24. But the CDU's subsequent failure to form a "Jamaica" coalition with the Greens and the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) has left Germany at an unprecedented impasse, and the SPD voted last week to enter new talks.
But many in the SPD are wary about entering into another alliance with Merkel, with pundits blaming the party's slump in the polls on its failure to distinguish itself from the CDU during the last four years. The consensus for many inside and outside the party was that the SPD needed some time in opposition to reassess its policies and win back credibility in its base.
For that reason, the Social Democrats want to make sure that any preliminary coalition talks keep various options open. So how could it pan out?
'GroKo' - Grand coalition
This currently seems like the mostly likely option, though in the current fluctuating situation that is no certainty. Some 68 percent of SPD supporters are in favor of a new grand coalition, according to a poll by public broadcaster ARD, though the "Juso" SPD youth wing and the left of the party are against it.
A grand coalition would also be the CDU's preference, since it would ensure a stable working majority in the Bundestag — though it would mean sharing the cabinet ministries with the SPD.
But this would also carry risks. Fatigue at the grand coalition's relentlessly centrist approach was perceived as one reason why both parties lost ground in September's election (the CDU lost 9 percentage points, while the SPD lost 5), and a continuation of the same policies — under Merkel's passive management style — could see Germany's biggest parties lose even more favor. Another problem is that this iteration of the grand coalition will be functioning on a much slimmer majority.
The left wing of the SPD is less keen on allying with Merkel, and suggested a kind of "open relationship" with the CDU. The SPD would get to keep a few ministries, and would agree a foreshortened coalition contract that would cover only basic issues — such as the budget and Europe policy. Other issues would remain open, and would allow both parties to try to build parliamentary majorities on a range of issues. The CDU is against the idea.
CDU minority government
In this scenario, which some in the SPD actually prefer, the CDU would take all the cabinet ministries and form a government on its own, with a "toleration" agreement with the SPD that would ensure agreement on basic issues like the budget, but would leave Merkel to try to seek majorities however she can from one issue to the next.
