The center-left Social Democrats (SPD), Germany's first political party, are struggling to muster their optimism in a year when five of Germany's 16 federal states are set to elect new parliaments. According to the latest opinion polls, the SPD could be voted out of power in two states that is has governed for decades. In two others, the SPD is polling in the single digits.

To understand what went wrong, we need to look back: The SPD was founded as a traditional workers party in 1863, which makes it the country's oldest political party. In that period, it aimed to be the political representative of factory workers, whose precarious lives were characterized by long working hours, low wages, job insecurity, a lack of occupational safety and a housing shortage.

Blue collar workers became the SPD's voter base, buying into the promise of education, equal opportunities and equal rights for all, regardless of class or origin.

Nowadays, the traditional working class no longer exists: Well-paid industrial workers have long become the middle class in society.

The Left: A split from the SPD

According to a survey by pollster Forsa in November 2025, only 9% of Germany's blue-collar workers and the unemployed said they would vote for the SPD. Those who feel socially disadvantaged now tend to sympathize with the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD). After the general election in February 2025, an  infratest-dimap poll found that 38% of working class voters had cast their ballot for the AfD.

Many former SPD voters have also switched to the socialist Left Party, which was formed in part because of dissatisfaction with the social welfare policies of the SPD under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who headed a coalition government with the Greens from 1998 to 2005.

The Left was formed in 2007 through the merger of the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) — the successor to East Germany's ruling party — and Labour and Social Justice — The Electoral Alternative, which split from the SPD in Western Germany.

Schröder and his SPD came to power in 1998 after 16 years of Chancellor Helmut Kohl, of the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU). The SPD won almost 41% of the vote through a campaign that wooed voters not just on the left, but in the political center. In the face of high unemployment and a sluggish economy, Schröder pushed through a radical reform of the welfare state, called "Agenda 2010." State social benefits were cut, employment protection was relaxed, and the low-wage sector was expanded.

The SPD lost half of its voters

The conservative opposition bloc of the CDU and Christian Social Union (CSU) enthusiastically applauded this agenda, which gave a boost to the German economy. Within the SPD, however, it led to massive disputes. The left wing of the party rebelled and no longer wanted to support Schröder's policies.

Within 10 years, the SPD had lost almost half of its voters — to the Left, the Greens and even the CDU, as Angela Merkel, by then the chancellor, steadily edged her conservatives leftward. Her conservative critics called this "the social democratization of the CDU."

It became increasingly difficult for voters to distinguish between the policies of the CDU/CSU and the SPD — especially as the CDU/CSU and SPD governed together in a coalition for most of the period from 2005 to 2021. During this time, the SPD made many political compromises and was unable to push many of its more left-wing social and tax policies through.

Another chapter of failure

Before the 2021 general election, the SPD was polling at 16%, but, following major gaffes by the conservatives during the election campaign, it emerged as the strongest party, winning 25.7% of the vote. Olaf Scholz, the finance minister and vice chancellor under Merkel, became chancellor.

The party hoped that it was finally back on the road to success. The opposite was the case.

The three-way coalition led by Scholz was hampered by massive infighting between the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP). The government collapsed prematurely after only three years in power and the SPD's reputation was further damaged. In the 2025 election, it only managed to secure around 16%, prompting the head of the Forsa institute, Manfred Güllner, to speak of an "existential threat" to the SPD.

New SPD policy platform shifts to the left

In 2025, the SPDs once again entered government, this time in a coalition as the junior partner to Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU — and now the party faces familiar problems. Once again, they run the risk of being unable to define their own profile.

The SPD has begun working on a new policy platform for 2027 that is to feature left-wing social policies. But how credible is that? Such demands cannot be enforced against the coalition partner.

Under Merz, the CDU has once again become significantly more conservative. In view of empty state coffers and a very weak economy, cuts in social spending are on the cards, the CDU/CSU is planning a major reform of the welfare state, the pension system, healthcare, and care for the elderly.

The SPD also believes that many of the proposals are necessary, but has demanded a more humane approach. The party has  benefited slightly in polls from this campaign for more social equality.

The federal government is currently trying to avoid an open dispute because of the upcoming state elections — but it seems increasingly paralyzed in terms of domestic policy.

Political observers expect both the CDU and the SPD to draw consequences from the first two state elections in March, in the southwestern states of Baden-Württemberg and the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate, where the SPD has headed the government since 1991. If it were to lose power there, pressure is likely to grow within the party to distance itself from CDU/CSU on the national level.

This article was originally written in German.

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