On Thursday, the European Parliament found unusually strong words for the escalation of the war and the humanitarian catastrophe in Sudan. Members of the European body passed a resolution which states that the grave violations of international humanitarian law and human rights committed by both the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), could constitute acts of genocide. 

The body also mulled halting a free trade agreement with the United Armed Emirates (UAE) over allegations that European weapons are being resold via Abu Dhabi to the paramilitary RSF. The UAE is widely thought to be a main backer of the militia, a claim which the Emirati government has strongly denied. 

After two and a half years of bitter fighting, as international attention turns more and more to Sudan, how close are the warring parties to reaching an agreement? 

Recent ceasefire proposals abandoned?

The civil war in Sudan broke out in mid-April, 2023, amid a power struggle between the generals of the RSF and the SAF over the integration of paramilitary fighters into the state forces. Diplomatic efforts to put an end to the fighting have failed so far, but there many be fresh momentum. 

Earlier this week, in response to increased international efforts, including the involvement of US President Donald Trump and mediators from "the Quad" — consisting of representatives from the United States, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia — the head the RSF, General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, declared the "immediate cessation of hostilities" in the form of a "unilateral ceasefire."

However, just a day later, the SAF reported that they repelled an RSF attack on an infantry base in West Kordofan.

Both sides also rejected a recent US-backed truce plan, based on a September proposal by the Quad. It envisions a three-month humanitarian truce, followed by a ceasefire and a political transition process to establish a civilian-led government that excludes any warring party.  

SAF General Abdel-Fattah Burhan responded in a video statement, stating that the proposal was "unacceptable and the worst yet." Without going into detail, he also claimed that the proposal had adopted Emirati "talking points."

What role does the UAE play in Sudan?

The UAE is widely considered to be the main supporter of the RSF, even though Abu Dhabi denies this. UN expert panels and various human rights organizations have alleged that the RSF is receiving military supplies from the UAE. Evidence has repeatedly pointed to arms and ammunition of Emirati origin being used by the RSF. The UAE officially denies these claims.

Nevertheless, the UAE is under mounting diplomatic, political, and public pressure to halt alleged support for the RSF.

"Without the UAE's regional cover and military support, the RSF would be actually pressured to reach a settlement and take down their arms," Yasir Zeidan, a Sudanese military analyst, told DW.

This view is echoed by Amgad Fareid Eltayeb, executive director of the Sudanese think tank Fikr for Studies and Development. He agreed that any attempt to broker a lasting ceasefire must consider the UAE's central role. "Without holding the UAE accountable through public exposure, congressional pressure, sanctions, or financial scrutiny, any RSF pledge risks remaining a tool of narrative rather than [resulting in] operational restraint," he told DW. 

Why do both sides continue to fight?

The ongoing civil war has pushed the resource-rich country to the verge of renewed partition. While the paramilitary RSF controls most of Sudan's western Darfur region, and parts of the south, the SAF controls most of the center, north and east of the country.

In March, the RSF and aligned armed groups formed the Sudan Founding Alliance (TASIS), with the aim of forming a government. The SAF rejects the recognition of the RSF as a legal entity, and both sides claim to seek control over the whole country. In light of this, expert observers say it's unlikely that either side will back down soon.

"The RSF's acceptance of the [latest ceasefire proposal] is a tactical measure," Leena Badri, a London-based Sudanese policy researcher, told DW. "It is an effort to position themselves as an entity that can govern, and to create a sense of legitimacy, which has kind of been their main goal ever since they developed their own parallel government," she said.

The SAF, on the other hand, has repeatedly emphasized its own role as a sovereign state actor fighting foreign-backed militias, Badri told DW, adding that "for this reason they do not view a ceasefire or political process as an opportunity to reinforce their legitimacy."

Civilians continue to bear the brunt

The RSF has recently come under increasing international and public scrutiny for the grave atrocities it is accused of committing in Darfur's regional capital el-Fasher late October. Close-up satellite images indicate that RSF fighters went door-to-door through the city, which it had taken control of after 18 months of siege, killing civilians. Testimonials by civilians who managed to flee detailed widespread violence, weaponized starvation, and targeted sexual abuse.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has since launched an investigation into the reported atrocities  and said that such acts, if substantiated, may constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity .

RSF leader Hamdan Dagalo, has said that only a few individuals were responsible the mass violence against civilians, and that they were being held accountable. The analyst Badri said such a statement was in line with its wider strategic aspirations. 

Meanwhile, rights organizations and the UN continue to voice serious concerns for the thousands of civilians still in  el-Fasher. Direct communication remains almost impossible, as the RSF strictly controls access to mobile services.

On Wednesday, Jan Sebastian Friedrich-Rust, executive director of the German section of the NGO Action against Hunger told DW from a rural community in Central Darfur, some 100 kilometres (62 miles) from el-Fasher, that "one doctor with three health assistants care for a community of 25,000 people." He added that around 200 children in the area suffer from acute malnutrition, which means life-threatening hunger.

"While 30 million Sudanese depend on humanitarian aid, only one in ten can be reached, as humanitarian funding from Germany and other donor countries is far from sufficient" he told DW.

Over the course of the war, Sudan has been plunged into the world's largest humanitarian and displacement crisis ever recorded, according to the International Rescue Committee and other global bodies. Around 14 million people remain displaced within Sudan and in neighboring countries. The UN's World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that at least 21 million people are affected by acute food insecurity and two cities,  including el-Fasher, are in famine. Since April 2023, at least 49,800 deaths have been recorded. Some humanitiarian groups warn the death toll could be much higher, exceeding at least 200,000. 

Edited by: Maren Sass