This Sunday's Lower Saxony regional election could bruise Chancellor Angela Merkel as she tries to forge her next federal coalition government. A new survey shows the northern state's governing Social Democrats ahead.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/J. Stratenschulte
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Public ZDF television's sampling put Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) on 33 percent, trailing the region's Social Democrats (SPD) led by premier Stephan Weil on 34.5 percent.
Conservative Merkel and SPD federal leader Martin Schulz, whose parties each lost voters in part to the far-right AfD in last month's federal election, traveled to Lower Saxony on Friday for a final day of campaigning.
Lower Saxony - what you need to know
On October 15, Lower Saxony becomes the first state to vote for a new regional parliament since the national election in September. DW has the lowdown on one of Germany's largest states.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/H. Hollemann
Swamp Soccer
There has been precious little mud-slinging in the election campaign so far, in stark contrast to the Swamp Soccer match in August during the East Friesian "Wältmeisterschaften" (Wadden Cup). The Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage site dominates large areas in the northern part of Lower Saxony.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Jaspersen
Germany's food basket
Agriculture, especially pork and beef production, is a key industry in Lower Saxony. The regional government claims that almost half of all potatoes in Germany are produced in the state. Each year, the country fair in the town of Verden crowns the most beautiful dairy cow from around 200 participants.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Jaspersen
The Volkswagen behemoth
The political influence on what was until recently the world's largest carmaker, is unique. The state of Lower Saxony is one of the biggest shareholders in Volkswagen and holds 20 percent of voting rights. The state government has a say in the direction and running of the auto giant and has two representatives on the supervisory board.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/J. Stratenschulte
Two hats on
As state premier of Lower Saxony, Stephan Weil is also a member of VW's supervisory board. Qua office, so to speak. As is his finance minister and fellow Social Democrat, Olaf Lies. Weil sees the tradition of state lawmakers being on the board of having "proved itself for decades."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/P. von Ditfurth
The best of friends
The intertwining of politics and VW business has long been a cause for hefty criticizm, however. Gerhard Schröder's (seen here awarding the state medal to VW chairman Ferdinand Piech) tenure as state premier between 1990 and 1998 came in for particular scrutiny. When he moved to the national stage, Schröder earned the moniker the "auto chancellor."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/H. Hollemann
The challenger
State Premier Stephan Weil's main rival is Bernd Althusmann, the leader of the regional party of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats. Should he emerge victorious, Althusmann plans to bring in external expertise to VW. He envisions replacing one of the government's seats on the advisory board with an auditor.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/H.Hollemann
Life support
It is impossible to overstate the economic significance of VW for Lower Saxony. It means jobs. Lots of them. Around 120,000 of VW's worldwide 600,000 employees are based in the state. As well as the Wolfsburg headquarters, there are also production facilities in five further cities in Lower Saxony, including the port of Emden (pictured here), where cars are immediately loaded onto waiting ships.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/I. Wagner
Wind in its sails
Lower Saxony is a leading pioneer of wind energy. With 203 new turbines in the first half of 2017, the state accounts for a quarter of all new facilities nationwide.
Image: picture-alliance/blickwinkel/W. Boyungs
Musical chairs in Hanover
The pack in the Hanover state parliament will be reshuffled on October 15. At least 135 lawmakers make up the assembly, but that figure rose to 137 after the last election due to overhang seats. This election was brought forward after a Green party MP switched allegiances to the Christian Democrats, meaning the ruling coalition of Social Democrats and Greens lost their one-seat majority.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/H. Hollemann
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In Osnabrück and Stade, Merkel campaigned alongside top regional CDU candidate Bernd Althusmann. In Hanover, Schulz appeared with Weil after visiting a conference of the mining and chemicals trade union IG BCE.
Speaking at a rally in Stade, Merkel said she expected a tight race on Sunday, but warned against reading too much into the recent poll that put the SPD marginally ahead of the CDU.
Taste of things to come?
Sunday's outcome is likely to set the tone for exploratory talks next week on forming a new federal untested coalition between Merkel conservatives, the pro-business FDP liberals and the environmentalist Greens.
Last month, the conservatives and the SPD scored poorest nationwide since 1949 as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) garnered 12.6 percent to enter the Bundestag, where Schulz's SPD plans an opposition role alongside the ex-communist Left party.
Will rivals stem the AfD?
Seven percent is forecast for the AfD in Lower Saxony's chamber in Hanover, according to the ZDF survey and an earlier sampling done for the tabloid Bild.
Schulz supports premier WeilImage: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Assanimoghaddam
Spurred into blocking the AfD's anti-foreigner sentiment, other parties had stepped up efforts in Lower Saxony to mobilize undecided voters, said Thorsten Faas, a political party researcher at Berlin's Freie University.
Campaigning in Lower Saxony, where agriculture, wind power and the "Dieselgate"-tainted Volkswagen are key actors, has focused on public safety, education and disputes over migrant policy.
FDP and Greens at around 10 percent
Both surveys ahead of Lower Saxony's election saw the FDP and Greens level, with each on 10 percent in the Bild survey and 9 percent in ZDF's sampling.
ZDF's survey cast 29 percent of voters as still undecided about which party to support or whether to vote at all.
The new survey – conducted after a television debate between Lower Saxony's leading candidates – put incumbent state head Weil on 49 percent as preferred premier and CDU challenger Althusmann on 31 percent.
Weil's previous SPD-led regional coalition with the region's Greens was left without a majority in the Hanover assembly when an environmentalist member switched to Althusmann's CDU, prompting the snap election.
Awaiting federal coalition talks
Tenio Intelligence deputy research director Carsten Nickel said if Merkel's CDU defied the regional survey trends and stole back the state from the SPD and its premier Weil, then it would help her to argue for compromise in forming a federal coalition government.
Those coalition talks are due to start next week – between Merkel's conservatives, the liberal FDP and the Greens - a three-way combination that would be new to federal Germany.
In Hanover, differing three-way coalition options are possible, assuming the latest survey readings are borne out in Sunday's voting.
Germany's colorful coalition shorthand
Foreign flags and even traffic lights are used to describe the various coalitions that emerge in German elections. Coalitions are common under Germany's proportional representation system.
Image: Getty Images
Black-red coalition
The Conservatives black combined with the traditional red of the political left is the color code when the Christian Democrats govern in a "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats. This combination of Germany's two "big tent" parties, was in power first from 1966-69 and most recently for eight years until 2021, led by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Image: picture-alliance/R. Goldmann
Black and Green
The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has teamed up with the ecologist Greens in several German states cooperating smoothly at the regional level. On the national level the two parties see eye to eye especially on strong support for Ukraine. They disagree on nuclear and renewable energy, and many conservatives despise the Greens for their multicultural and "woke" positions.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
'Traffic light' coalition — Red, Yellow, Green
From 2021-2025 Germany was governed by a center-left coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), ecologist Greens, and free-market-oriented neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), whose color is yellow. The government known as "Ampel" (traffic light) in Germany, started out as a self-declared "Fortschrittskoalition" (progress coalition) but got mired in infighting and became the least popular government ever.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/J.Büttner
Black, Red, Green — like Kenya's flag
If the center-right CDU/CSU fails to be able to forge a two-way coalition, teaming up with the Greens and the center-left SPD may be the only option for a comfortable majority. It has been tested on a regional level: The eastern German state of Saxony was governed by such a coalition until 2024, when it failed to get a new mandate.
Image: Fotolia/aaastocks
The Germany coalition — Black, Red and Yellow
The neoliberal FDP has been junior coalition partner to both the center-right CDU/CSU and the center-left SPD on the national level. A three-way coalition was forged on the state level, for example in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt. The FDP's drop in support in regional elections and opinion polls, however, makes it an unlikely partner for the federal government.
Image: Hoffmann/Caro/picture alliance
'Jamaica' option — black, yellow and green
A three-way deal between the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), did not come about at the national level in 2017 after the FDP called off talks. It has been tested at a state level. But the recent three-way national government saw the FDP and Green positions as irreconcilable and mutual animosity would seem almost impossible to overcome.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/dpaweb
Black and Orange
Since 2018 Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) has been governing with the Free Voters (FV), whose color is Orange. The FV is a grass-roots populist and far-right-leaning party and is led by its controversial chairman Hubert Aiwanger. Strong in rural areas of southern and eastern Germany, the Freie Wähler is seeking a larger role at the national level and currently has three MEPs.
Image: Privat
Blackberry coalition
In graphics showing opinion polls, the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is shown in violet. That may be fitting, as it combines socialist, far-left (red) with populist right wing (blue) ideas in its platform. Although the party was only founded in 2024, it is doing so well in the eastern German states that it may well be asked to join coalition governments. Possibly led by the CDU (Black).
Image: Oliver Berg/dpa/picture alliance
Blackberry Coalition
CDU (black), SPD (red) and BSW (violet). The new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance's (BSW) color violet, seems fitting as it combines socialist, far-left (red) with populist right wing (blue) ideas in its platform. Although the party was only founded in 2024, it did so well in the eastern German states that it entered a coalition government with the SPD and CDU in the state of Thuringia.
