This Sunday's Lower Saxony regional election could bruise Chancellor Angela Merkel as she tries to forge her next federal coalition government. A new survey shows the northern state's governing Social Democrats ahead.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/J. Stratenschulte
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Public ZDF television's sampling put Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) on 33 percent, trailing the region's Social Democrats (SPD) led by premier Stephan Weil on 34.5 percent.
Conservative Merkel and SPD federal leader Martin Schulz, whose parties each lost voters in part to the far-right AfD in last month's federal election, traveled to Lower Saxony on Friday for a final day of campaigning.
Lower Saxony - what you need to know
On October 15, Lower Saxony becomes the first state to vote for a new regional parliament since the national election in September. DW has the lowdown on one of Germany's largest states.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/H. Hollemann
Swamp Soccer
There has been precious little mud-slinging in the election campaign so far, in stark contrast to the Swamp Soccer match in August during the East Friesian "Wältmeisterschaften" (Wadden Cup). The Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage site dominates large areas in the northern part of Lower Saxony.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Jaspersen
Germany's food basket
Agriculture, especially pork and beef production, is a key industry in Lower Saxony. The regional government claims that almost half of all potatoes in Germany are produced in the state. Each year, the country fair in the town of Verden crowns the most beautiful dairy cow from around 200 participants.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Jaspersen
The Volkswagen behemoth
The political influence on what was until recently the world's largest carmaker, is unique. The state of Lower Saxony is one of the biggest shareholders in Volkswagen and holds 20 percent of voting rights. The state government has a say in the direction and running of the auto giant and has two representatives on the supervisory board.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/J. Stratenschulte
Two hats on
As state premier of Lower Saxony, Stephan Weil is also a member of VW's supervisory board. Qua office, so to speak. As is his finance minister and fellow Social Democrat, Olaf Lies. Weil sees the tradition of state lawmakers being on the board of having "proved itself for decades."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/P. von Ditfurth
The best of friends
The intertwining of politics and VW business has long been a cause for hefty criticizm, however. Gerhard Schröder's (seen here awarding the state medal to VW chairman Ferdinand Piech) tenure as state premier between 1990 and 1998 came in for particular scrutiny. When he moved to the national stage, Schröder earned the moniker the "auto chancellor."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/H. Hollemann
The challenger
State Premier Stephan Weil's main rival is Bernd Althusmann, the leader of the regional party of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats. Should he emerge victorious, Althusmann plans to bring in external expertise to VW. He envisions replacing one of the government's seats on the advisory board with an auditor.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/H.Hollemann
Life support
It is impossible to overstate the economic significance of VW for Lower Saxony. It means jobs. Lots of them. Around 120,000 of VW's worldwide 600,000 employees are based in the state. As well as the Wolfsburg headquarters, there are also production facilities in five further cities in Lower Saxony, including the port of Emden (pictured here), where cars are immediately loaded onto waiting ships.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/I. Wagner
Wind in its sails
Lower Saxony is a leading pioneer of wind energy. With 203 new turbines in the first half of 2017, the state accounts for a quarter of all new facilities nationwide.
Image: picture-alliance/blickwinkel/W. Boyungs
Musical chairs in Hanover
The pack in the Hanover state parliament will be reshuffled on October 15. At least 135 lawmakers make up the assembly, but that figure rose to 137 after the last election due to overhang seats. This election was brought forward after a Green party MP switched allegiances to the Christian Democrats, meaning the ruling coalition of Social Democrats and Greens lost their one-seat majority.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/H. Hollemann
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In Osnabrück and Stade, Merkel campaigned alongside top regional CDU candidate Bernd Althusmann. In Hanover, Schulz appeared with Weil after visiting a conference of the mining and chemicals trade union IG BCE.
Speaking at a rally in Stade, Merkel said she expected a tight race on Sunday, but warned against reading too much into the recent poll that put the SPD marginally ahead of the CDU.
Taste of things to come?
Sunday's outcome is likely to set the tone for exploratory talks next week on forming a new federal untested coalition between Merkel conservatives, the pro-business FDP liberals and the environmentalist Greens.
Last month, the conservatives and the SPD scored poorest nationwide since 1949 as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) garnered 12.6 percent to enter the Bundestag, where Schulz's SPD plans an opposition role alongside the ex-communist Left party.
Will rivals stem the AfD?
Seven percent is forecast for the AfD in Lower Saxony's chamber in Hanover, according to the ZDF survey and an earlier sampling done for the tabloid Bild.
Schulz supports premier WeilImage: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Assanimoghaddam
Spurred into blocking the AfD's anti-foreigner sentiment, other parties had stepped up efforts in Lower Saxony to mobilize undecided voters, said Thorsten Faas, a political party researcher at Berlin's Freie University.
Campaigning in Lower Saxony, where agriculture, wind power and the "Dieselgate"-tainted Volkswagen are key actors, has focused on public safety, education and disputes over migrant policy.
FDP and Greens at around 10 percent
Both surveys ahead of Lower Saxony's election saw the FDP and Greens level, with each on 10 percent in the Bild survey and 9 percent in ZDF's sampling.
ZDF's survey cast 29 percent of voters as still undecided about which party to support or whether to vote at all.
The new survey – conducted after a television debate between Lower Saxony's leading candidates – put incumbent state head Weil on 49 percent as preferred premier and CDU challenger Althusmann on 31 percent.
Weil's previous SPD-led regional coalition with the region's Greens was left without a majority in the Hanover assembly when an environmentalist member switched to Althusmann's CDU, prompting the snap election.
Awaiting federal coalition talks
Tenio Intelligence deputy research director Carsten Nickel said if Merkel's CDU defied the regional survey trends and stole back the state from the SPD and its premier Weil, then it would help her to argue for compromise in forming a federal coalition government.
Those coalition talks are due to start next week – between Merkel's conservatives, the liberal FDP and the Greens - a three-way combination that would be new to federal Germany.
In Hanover, differing three-way coalition options are possible, assuming the latest survey readings are borne out in Sunday's voting.
Germany's colorful coalition shorthand
Foreign flags and even traffic lights are used to describe the various coalitions that emerge in German elections. Coalitions are common under Germany's proportional representation system.
Image: Getty Images
Black-red coalition
Conservative black combined with transformative red is the color code when the Christian Democrats govern in a grand coalition with the Social Democrats. This 'grand coalition' government has been in power for the past eight years under Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Image: picture-alliance/R. Goldmann
'Pizza Connection'
When Bonn was still Germany's capital, individual conservatives and Greens met from 1995 in its suburban Italian Sassella restaurant. Since then, the 'Pizza Connection' has become code for speculation over further links. At regional level, Baden-Württemburg's Greens-CDU coalition has governed since 2016.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
'Jamaica' option - black, yellow and green
A three-way deal between the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats, whose color is yellow did not come about at national level in 2017 after the FDP called off talks. It has been tested at a state level, however, where Schleswig-Holstein currently has a "Jamaica" government.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/dpaweb
Black, red, green, symbolized by Kenya's flag
So far, a 'Kenyan' coalition has only emerged at the regional state level in the East, in response to a rise of the far-right AfD taking a quarter of the votes. Brandenburg and Saxony have had such a coalition government since 2019.
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'Traffic light' coalition
The free-market-oriented liberal FDP, whose color is yellow, has in the past generally ruled out federal coalitions sandwiched between the Social Democrats, whose color is red, and the Greens. But a current example is Rhineland Palatinate's three-way regional state coalition based in Mainz and headed by Social Democrat Malu Dreyer.