Kurdish fighters and civilians have begun evacuating from the besieged Syrian town of Ras al-Ayn as part of a US-brokered deal with Turkey. But their exit still leaves the longer-term fate of the deal in question.
Image: AFP/N. Al-khatib
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The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have withdrawn from the besieged border town of Ras al-Ayn, fulfilling part of a fragile US-brokered deal with Turkey.
On Sunday, dozens of vehicles carrying SDF fighters and civilians rolled out of the border town that has been at the center of clashes since the Turkish military and its rebel proxies launched an offensive on October 9, after the US said it was pulling troops from the region.
The Turkish military, SDF and a war monitor confirmed that Kurdish-led forces had exited the city. The truce only requires SDF fighters to leave, but many civilians fled for fear Turkish-backed rebels would commit more atrocities.
Turkey wants to create a 32-kilometer (20 mile) deep "safe zone" along a 420-kilometer stretch of its border to remove what it says are Kurdish "terrorists" and relocate Arab Syrian refugees into area. The Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units, or YPG, which has links to Kurdish insurgents in Turkey, is a main component of the SDF.
The Syrian Kurds say they are committed to the US-mediated agreement, but plan to only withdraw from a 120-kilometer section of the border between Ras al-Ayn and Tel Abyad to the west, which has an Arab majority. The Kurdish pull out has so far not extended beyond Ras al-Ayn.
Erdogan, Putin set to meet
Earlier Sunday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeated threats to continue military operations if all 13 points of the deal agreed with the US were not implemented.
However, Turkey's plans in northeast Syria were complicated when, with Russian mediation, the SDF invited the Syrian army and Russian troops into several areas under its control.
US President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw troops from northern Syria leaves Washington with little influence on the ground to direct events, effectively giving Russia power to enter the vacuum. The US move was widely viewed as giving a green light for a Turkish attack on SDF forces that the US had allied with to defeat the "Islamic State."
Who are the major players in northern Syria?
The US withdrawal of troops from Kurdish-controlled northeast Syria and the launch of the Turkish offensive have created a complicated web of actors, from Russia to Syrian government troops.
Image: picture-alliance/ZUMAPRESS/Staff Sgt. A. Goedl
US: Troop pullback
Over the past years, US troops have supported Kurdish fighters as they battled radical "Islamic State" (IS) militants to take back control of large areas of northern Syria. In what was seen as a surprising turnaround, US President Donald Trump announced in early October that he was withdrawing US troops from the region's border with Turkey. This pullback left a vacuum for others to act and react.
Image: picture-alliance/ZUMAPRESS/Staff Sgt. A. Goedl
Turkey: Anti-Kurdish offensive
Trump's troop withdrawal was a de-facto go-ahead for Turkey to launch an offensive into northeast Syria. The region is home to a largely autonomous Kurdish population and Kurdish militants known as the YPG, who are tied to an outlawed Kurdish party in Turkey. Turkey, who has faced a Kurdish insurgency, sees the Syrian Kurds as a threat to its security, hence the military action.
Image: picture-alliance/AA/M. Akif Parlak
Kurdish YPG: Fighting Turkish forces
The YPG was one of the US' main allies in the fight to drive out IS from north Syria, but since October it has been fighting the Turkish forces that crossed into Syria. The YPG lacks strong air capabilities and defenses, putting it at a decided disadvantage in comparison to the Turkish army.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/G. Souleiman
SDF: Betrayed by the US
The YPG is the largest component of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which also includes Arab and Christian militias. The SDF, which fought IS, controls northeastern Syria and feels betrayed by the US pullback. It is now fighting Turkish troops and their allies. It has warned that the Turkish offensive could distract from making sure IS fighters do not renew their strength in Syria.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/D. Souleiman
Syrian government army: Deal made
The relationship between Syrian President Bashar Assad's troops and the SDF is a tricky one that shifts between cooperation, live-and-let-live and skirmishes, depending on the current situation. After Turkey launched its offensive, the Kurds struck a deal with the government that saw Syrian troops mobilized to fight the Turkish forces, allowing them to enter a region they had ceded to the SDF.
Image: picture-alliance/Photoshot
Russia: Stepping up, stepping in
Russia has consistently backed the government of Syrian President Assad (L, with Putin in 2018) and assisted its forces. After US troops pulled out of the Kurdish areas, Russia moved its troops in to act as a buffer for Syrian government forces advancing towards the Turkish army. Moscow wants Syria to remain united and has accused the US of creating parallel structures in the Kurdish region.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/M. Klimentyev
SNA: Turkey's Syrian allies
Turkey also has allies among Syrian fighters. The Syrian National Army (SNA), also known as the Free Syrian Army, is a Syrian rebel group that has fought against the SDF and Assad's government. Backed by Turkey, SNA fighters took part in previous Turkish offensives against Kurdish militias inside Syria. Currently, thousands of SNA fighters are fighting the YPG alongside Turkish forces.
Image: picture-alliance/AA/B. Kasim
IS: A renewed role?
One possible future actor is IS. While it was essentially defeated in March 2019, tens of thousands of its fighters and their families remain in prisons or guarded camps in the Kurdish area of the country. Nearly a thousand alone have already escaped from a camp that was caught in the fighting between Kurdish militias and Turkish forces. Should the situation grow more unstable, IS could regroup.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/M. Alleruzzo
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Just as the 120-hour truce is set to end on Tuesday, Erdogan will meet in the Black Sea city of Sochi with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a key backer of the regime in Damascus.
The issue of the YPG's withdrawal from the cities of Manbij and Kobani, two areas where Russian and Syrian forces have entered, is set to be discussed by Erdogan and Putin, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Sunday.
"We believe we can reach an agreement with them to work together in the future, just like we have before," Cavusoglu said. While Erdogan and Putin have worked together on managing the Syrian conflict, Russia has said the Turkish military operation should be limited and the territorial integrity of Syria protected.
