In the 10 days immediately following the massive 7.8 magnitude earthquake, which hit northwestern Syria and southern Turkey, Ahmed and his family were forced to live on the street in the southeastern Turkish town of Adiyaman. But finally, after years of trying to make a life for himself and his family in his adopted homeland, Ahmed decided he had no other option but to return to his country of birth, Syria.

"In Turkey I had nothing left. But at least here I have some friends and relatives," he explained, speaking from a friend's home inside the opposition-controlled areas of northern Syria. Due to security concerns, Ahmed did not wish to give his exact location, too many details about his life or his full name.

The former factory worker fled war in his own country several years ago. But after the devastating earthquake hit the Turkish-Syrian border region on February 6, the house Ahmed was living in was damaged beyond repair, as was the business where he had been working.

Straight after the earthquake, he says his family was unable to get a government-issued tent to live in — Ahmed firmly believes this is because the Turkish had a discriminatory locals-first policy when it came to dispensing aid. 

"The day after the earthquake, anybody who still had a house standing also began charging double the rent," said Ahmed, who did not receive his last salary and who had to borrow money to make the journey into Syria. "A place that was 4,000 lira [$212, €199 prior to the earthquake] a month now costs 8,000 lira a month," he complained. "And there's also discrimination. It's almost impossible for a Syrian to rent a place now." 

That was when he and his family decided to return to the war-torn country they had previously fled. 

"Right now, I don't know what will happen," Ahmed added. "If we could get a tent or a shelter here, then we would probably just stay. Maybe I would settle here. But right now, I just don't know."

Thousands returning home

The same uncertainty is something thousands of other Syrians are also facing. By Tuesday this week, almost 10,000 Syrians had passed through the Turkish-Syrian border crossing, Bab al-Hawa. Observers suspect that as many as 20,000 Syrians may have gone back altogether already, if other border crossings and methods of travel are also taken into account.

The hardest hit Turkish cities were home to a large number of Syrians, said Fadel Abdul Ghany, head of the UK-based Syrian Network for Human Rights, or SNHR, which monitors human rights violations inside Syria.

Both the badly battered provinces of Hatay and Gaziantep in Turkey had just under half a million Syrian inhabitants each, he pointed out. "That means a lot of the dead in these cities will be Syrians and a lot of the damage will be impacting Syrians," Abdul Ghany explained. "Many of them will have lost everything: Families, property, jobs. It was already a struggle for many of them before. It's going to be even harder to rebuild again."

Some are now returning to Syria to check on their own families after the earthquake, others will be going to mourn with relatives, Abdul Ghany noted. 

Syrians not 'refugees' in Turkey

Turkey has ratified international refugee conventions but defines refugees only as those people coming as a result of "events occurring in Europe." This means it does not recognize the around 4 million Syrians in the country as refugees. The country does give them what it calls "temporary protection" status though, which comes with a residence permit, access to some social welfare and public services, and an identification card.

Before the earthquake, Syrians with a residence permit had been allowed to travel into opposition-controlled parts of northern Syria for what was called "visitation." Hundreds of Syrian families would head home for religious holidays like Eid or events like funerals.

However, this has changed recently as the presence of displaced Syrians in Turkey has become more of a controversial political issue. Facing an election and challenges from more extremist nationalist parties, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has started blaming foreigners for his country's economic woes. The idea of forced deportation of Syrians to a so-called "safe zone" over the border has been discussed regularly by Turkish politicians and in April 2022, the Turkish government cancelled the Eid holiday visit that Syrians had been allowed regularly since 2014. 

At the time, Turkey's Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu told Turkish media that Syrians could "go to the safe zone and stay there." In October 2022, Human Rights Watch reported how Turkish authorities had been arbitrarily arresting and forcibly deporting hundreds of Syrians earlier that year.

Following February's earthquake, the Turkish government said that Syrians, who have residence permits and who live in the 10 earthquake-affected provinces, may go back to Syria for not less than three months and not more than six. If they do not stick to this timing, their residence permits will be revoked. The announcement was made on February 15, 2023.

Challenges in Syria too

Observers say that most of the returnees are going back into areas controlled by forces in opposition to the Syrian government, which is headed by dictator Bashar Assad. The Syrian government has been accused of war crimes and crimes against in humanity during its brutal oppression of peaceful anti-government protests that began in 2011.

The areas in northwestern Syria to which people are returning are run by a variety of different militias, including those backed by Turkey and by the US, as well as more extremist religious militias like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Infrastructure and other facilities there are sparse after years of civil war and bombardment by the Syrian government and its Russian ally. Most of the over 4 million people who live in these areas are already dependent on international aid. 

"We have heard from people in the area and from journalists there, that a lot of these people [who returned] are staying with their relatives, or in make-shift camps," Ranim Ahmed, senior communications officer with the advocacy organization, The Syria Campaign, told DW.

"Because the returnees are mostly not going back into areas controlled by the Assad regime, they have no fear of pursuit or arrest by government security forces," said Muhsen al-Mustafa, a researcher at the Istanbul-based Omran Center for Strategic Studies.

"The biggest threat is still Bashar Assad, who would prevent them from returning to the areas they originally came from [elsewhere in Syria] either because the area has been destroyed, or because of further government oppression and persecution. But if they don't go any further than opposition-held areas, then the most likely danger for them would be shelling carried out by Assad's army from time to time," al-Mustafa said.

Return to Turkey?

SNHR head Abdul Ghany understands why his compatriots are heading back into Syria, but he also worries about their return, despite the Erdogan government's promises.

"Most have permits, a small number even have citizenship. But I worry that the Turkish authorities will see this as an opportunity," he told DW, "and won't let them come back again so easily." 

Syria Campaign spokesperson Ahmed shares this concern.

"Given the growing hostility to Syrian refugees we have witnessed in recent months, there are real fears that Turkey may not let them back in," she told DW. "But we won't know about that for a few months, when people start to come back into Turkey. Basically, everything's very uncertain," she warned.

This is why, for now, The Syria Campaign wants to see the international community, and the United Nations in particular, "ensuring that everyone has access to lifesaving aid, ensuring that civilians are protected in northern Syria, and that Syrian refugees in Turkey are protected from increasing racism and forced deportation," Ahmed added.

Edited by: J. Wingard