An anticipated Syrian government offensive against the jihadi hotbed of Idlib province threatens to draw in multiple foreign powers and unleash massive suffering. Hundreds of thousands of civilians could be displaced.
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The United Nations on Thursday warned 3 million civilians are at risk in Syria's Idlib province as the government is expected to launch an offensive against the last rebel-held territory.
UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura said that there were at least 10,000 terrorist fighters belonging to al-Nusra and al-Qaeda in Idlib province, about 60 percent of which is controlled by the jihadist Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham alliance.
An anticipated Russian-backed Syrian government offensive against Idlib must avoid the use of heavy weapons in densely populated areas even if the battle is against recognized terrorist groups, de Mistura told reporters in Geneva.
UN warns of weaponized chlorine
De Mistura also warned both sides could use chemical weapons.
"Avoiding the potential use of chemical weapons is indeed crucial. We all are aware that both the government and al-Nusra have the capability to produce weaponized chlorine," he said.
Syria's civil war erupted out of the Arab Spring protests that swept much of the Middle East and North Africa in 2011. The conflict has since drawn in multiple warring factions from around the world.
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War with no end
Syria has been engulfed in a devastating civil war since 2011 after Syrian President Bashar Assad lost control over large parts of the country to multiple revolutionary groups. The conflict has since drawn in foreign powers and brought misery and death to Syrians.
Image: picture alliance/abaca/A. Al-Bushy
The dictator
Syria's army, officially known as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), is loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and is fighting to restore the president's rule over the entire country. The SAA has been fighting alongside a number of pro-Assad militias such as the National Defense Force and has cooperated with military advisors from Russia and Iran, which back Assad.
Turkey, which is also part of the US-led coalition against IS, has actively supported rebels opposed to Assad. It has a tense relationship with its American allies over US cooperation with Kurdish fighters, who Ankara says are linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fighting in Turkey. Turkey has launched multiple military offensives targeting Kurdish militias.
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The eastern guardian
The Kremlin has proven to be a powerful friend to Assad. Russian air power and ground troops officially joined the fight in September 2015 after years of supplying the Syrian army. Moscow has come under fire from the international community for the high number of civilian casualties during its airstrikes. However, Russia's intervention turned the tide in war in favor of Assad.
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The western allies
A US-led coalition of more than 50 countries, including Germany, began targeting IS and other terrorist targets with airstrikes in late 2014. The anti-IS coalition has dealt major setbacks to the militant group. The US has more than a thousand special forces in the country backing the Syrian Democratic Forces.
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The rebels
The Free Syrian Army grew out of protests against the Assad regime that eventually turned violent. Along with other non-jihadist rebel groups, it seeks the ouster of President Assad and democratic elections. After suffering a number of defeats, many of its members defected to hardline militant groups. It garnered some support from the US and Turkey, but its strength has been greatly diminished.
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The resistance
Fighting between Syrian Kurds and Islamists has become its own conflict. The US-led coalition against the "Islamic State" has backed the Syrian Democratic Forces, an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias. The Kurdish YPG militia is the main component of the SDF. The Kurds have had a tacit understanding with Assad.
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The new jihadists
"Islamic State" (IS) took advantage of regional chaos to capture vast swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria in 2014. Seeking to establish its own "caliphate," IS has become infamous for its fundamentalist brand of Islam and its mass atrocities. IS is on the brink of defeat after the US and Russia led separate military campaigns against the militant group.
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The old jihadists
IS is not the only terrorist group that has ravaged Syria. A number of jihadist militant groups are fighting in the conflict, warring against various rebel factions and the Assad regime. One of the main jihadist factions is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which controls most of Idlib province and has ties with al-Qaeda.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Nusra Front on Twitter
The Persian shadow
Iran has supported Syria, its only Arab ally, for decades. Eager to maintain its ally, Tehran has provided Damascus with strategic assistance, military training and ground troops when the conflict emerged in 2011. The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah also supports the Assad regime, fighting alongside Iranian forces and paramilitary groups in the country.
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Nearly 2.9 million civilians, many of them displaced from other parts of Syria, are living in Idlib province, which borders on Turkey.
On Thursday, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem, meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, said government forces will "go all the way" in Idlib and liberate the "whole territory from terrorism."
Idlib province has morphed into what amounts to a jihadist controlled refugee campImage: Reuters/O. Orsal
The meeting came as the Russian Defense Ministry announced military exercises in the eastern Mediterranean during the first week of September following a recent naval build up.
The show of force will deploy 25 ships and 30 jets, including strategic bombers and cruise missile capable warships, the Defense Ministry said.
Previously regime offensives have been preceded by massive Syrian and Russian bombing, followed by sieges carried out by pro-government ground forces.
The UN and aid organizations are warning that as many as 800,000 people could be displaced again in a government offensive. With the border to Turkey closed, there is no place for civilians to flee.
"There is no otherIdlib," de Mistura said, imploring that civilians be allowed to evacuate to government-controlled areas with guarantees for their lives and rights once they arrived there.
"It would be a tragic irony frankly if at almost the end of... a territorial war inside Syria, we would be witnessing the most horrific tragedy to the largest number of civilians," he said.
Ahead of the anticipated offensive in Idlib there has been a flurry of diplomatic activity between Russia, Iran and Turkey, the external powers in the Syrian civil war cooperating under the so-called Astana process.
NATO member Turkey has 12 military observation posts in Idlib separating rebel areas from Syrian forces and its allies. The observation posts were established as part of "de-escalation" deals with Russia and Iran.
Ankara has also carved out areas of control in northern Syria, where it backs rebel factions and has sought to return refugees.
Turkey, which has already taken in nearly 4 million refugees, fears a major offensive in Idlib will send a new flood of displaced persons across the border. The end of the armed opposition could also send thousands of rebels and jihadists into Turkey.
Analysts say the future of Idlib presents a major test for increasingly close ties between Ankara and Moscow.
The leaders of Russia, Iran and Turkey are meeting next week in Tabriz to discuss Syria.
