The Thai government recently set an ambitious target to welcome 40 million visitors in 2025, in a bid by the tourism industry to regain momentum lost during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The plan aims to attract more visitors to lesser-known destinations, expand flight capacity and do more to promote Thai culture.

Gary Bowerman, a tourism analyst based in Kuala Lumpur, said the target would not just benefit Thailand economically. 

"For Thailand, it would be a psychological milestone to surpass 40 million visitors as it would almost certainly have done so in 2020, if not for COVID," he told DW.

"Had arrivals continued to grow in 2020 and onward, it is likely Thailand would have reached or be close to its actual ceilings for arrivals now," he added.

Before the pandemic in 2019, Thailand welcomed a record 39 million visitors. The kingdom has already welcomed 26 million visitors in 2024 and forecasts 36 million arrivals by the end of the year.

More bang for your baht

Thailand is already one of the world's most popular tourist destinations, and nearly 20% of the Thai workforce is part of the tourism industry.

However, Bowerman said getting tourists to spend more during their visit is more important than arrival numbers alone.

"Growing annual arrivals matters to governments, but the economy needs higher per-visitor spending and an increase in the average length of stay," he said.

"Thailand will want to focus on better economic yield from its visitor economy rather than relying on one-dimension metrics like annual arrivals, which takes no account of average stay, spending or travel dispersal around the country," he added.

Tapping the Chinese market

Tourists from mainland China are one of the biggest groups of visitors to Thailand. Tourism operators, airlines and activities now specifically cater to the Chinese market.

Over 5.2 million Chinese tourists visited between January and September, and 8 million are expected to arrive by the end of the year.

"The Chinese market was vital to almost reaching 40 million in 2019, but Chinese airlines aren't deploying much capacity to Thailand in 2024 as outbound travel patterns continue to change," said Bowerman.

Overtourism a concern

But as Thailand gears up to welcome more visitors, tourism operators are discussing how to deal with overtourism in the most popular destinations.

Adith Chairattananon of the Federation of Thai Tourism Associations presented a special report to the government in April looking at solutions to prevent overtourism amid the possibility of another boost in visitors next year.

"With a projection of 40 million tourists, major destinations like Phuket, Samui and Pattaya are on the verge of facing overtourism," Adith said, according to the Bangkok Post.

One of the proposals is to charge a 300-baht (about €8.20/$8.90) tourism tax in a bid to help build better infrastructure to cope with demand, according to the newspaper.

Spreading the wealth

Tourism in Thailand is heavily concentrated in cities like Bangkok, Chiang Mai and Phuket.

Kiatanantha Lounkaew, an assistant professor of economics at Thammasat University in Bangkok, said tourism needs to be spread out across the country to fully benefit the whole of Thai society.

"To benefit from it, we have to rethink the tourism sector as an area-based cluster. You can't have Phuket, Phang-nga and Krabi competing for the same tourists," he said on a podcast from the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand.

"We have 77 provinces — if we are all competing to attract tourists in those areas, we are doomed. We have to work together. Do not compete; supplement, compliment," he added.

Tita Sanglee, an associate fellow at the ISEAS Institute in Singapore, said tourism is vital to the Thai economy.

"Thailand's push for 40 million visitors next year is very important because tourism is the fastest and simplest way to generate GDP," she told DW.

"I'd even say that it's the only driving force behind our economy when other sectors are lagging and need to undergo substantial structural reforms," she added.

The World Bank recently predicted Thailand's GDP growth for 2024 will be 2.4%, lower than all of its regional neighbors except war-torn Myanmar.

Tourism accounted for 11.5% of the country's overall GDP in 2019. If the kingdom hits its estimated 36 million arrivals by the end of 2024, it is forecasted to generate $53 billion (49 billion euros) in tourism revenue.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn