Ten years since Thailand's military overthrew the democratically elected government, the political landscape in the southeast Asian country has seen many changes.

Thailand's coup leader-turned-Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha retired from politics after a failed bid to extend his rule in last year's election.

Pheu Thai, the same party ousted by the last putsch, is back in power under Srettha Thavisin — Thailand's first civilian prime minister in nearly a decade.

The country's royal family, under King Maha Vajiralongkorn, has faced unprecedented public criticism since the 2020-2021 youth-led pro-democracy protests.

Reforming the monarchy

Last week's death in custody of political activist Netiporn "Bung" Sanesangkhom is "a clear example why Thai society needs to discuss amendments to Article 112 [lese majeste law] and monarchy reforms seriously," Pavin Chachavalpongpun, an exiled Thai scholar, told DW.

Thailand's taboo lese majeste law, one of the strictest in the world, carries lengthy prison sentences for those who criticize the monarchy.

Netiporn died after she went on a partial hunger strike during pre-trial detention on charges including royal insult.

Netiporn was a member of the Thaluwang activist group, known for trenchant campaigns demanding reforms to the monarchy and the abolition of the lese majeste law. 

Since 2020, at least 1,954 people have been prosecuted for their political participation or expression, according to Thai Lawyers for Human Rights, including 272 charged with royal insult.

'Lost decade'

In an exclusive interview with DW, former Thai prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat called the past ten years "a lost decade" for democracy in Thailand, which he said was governed by a "competitive autocracy."

"There's an establishment behind that allows elections once in a while, and even if the election result is not desirable, there are independent mechanisms, that tyranny of the minority, of that 1%, that can keep change from happening," said Pita.

His progressive Move Forward party won the most votes in the 2023 general election but Pita was blocked from becoming prime minister by junta-picked senators — a legacy of the former military government.

"Back in the day you'd probably see military coups to stop change. You'd probably see warfare. You'd probably see violence on the street. Now you see judicial coups, now you see lawfare, now you see violence in the courtroom," Pita added.

Pita's party is now facing dissolution, the same fate as its predecessor, Future Forward, which was disbanded in 2020 for violating electoral rules.

Move Forward's reformist agenda, including the promise to amend the lese majeste law, has led to a petition arguing that its stance on Article 112 was an attempt to overthrow the monarchy.

The case "doesn't affect me personally or just my party, but the health of Thai democracy as a whole," said Pita.

Democratic potential

"In the past ten years, democracy in Thailand has improved, not by much, but it has made some headway," said Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University.

She hailed the end to the military and military-backed rule with the return to an elected civilian government, even if the current Pheu Thai administration led by Srettha Thavisin does not have full legitimacy.

"We need to give a civilian government a chance [... ] If we keep saying that Pheu Thai lacks legitimacy and create an atmosphere for external powers to topple the government, we would continue in the vicious cycle," she added.

On May 22, 2014, the Thai military took control of the country after months of violent street protests and ousted an elected Pheu Thai-led government — the 12th successful coup since Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in 1932.

Thaksin returns to his homeland

The recent return from 15 years in exile of Thaksin Shinawatra — the Pheu Thai founder and de-facto leader who was ousted in a coup in 2006 — came the same day that Srettha was elected.

Thaksin later saw his sentence for corruption reduced to one year under royal pardon.

"We are going around in circles. Srettha's government does not address Thai politics today, where the needs of the new generations are different than that of the old ones," Pavin told DW. "The current government only responds to the benefits of the establishment and that of Thaksin."

Reversing legacy of last coup?

In June, Thailand will hold its first Senate election since the 2014 coup, after the senators handpicked by the military regime completed their five-year term this month.

After the putsch, the junta set up the rubber-stamp Senate, which made sure that Prayuth stayed in power once elections were held in 2019.

Two hundred members of the upper house from 20 social and professional groups will be elected, but only those running for a seat can vote.

The new senators will no longer have the power to select the prime minister but their votes are still required to amend the 2017 constitution designed by the military junta.

The current government is pushing ahead with forging a new version of the supreme law. Last month, they agreed that three referendums would be required.

But while they claim to want to democratize the charter, they don't intend to revise the first two chapters that keep the monarchy's power intact.

"The monarchy is still at the heart of Thai politics today. I don't think there will be amendments to the constitution in the parts concerning the royal family's power," Pavin told DW.

Many have reservations about how sincere Pheu Thai's efforts in pushing for the new charter actually are.

"Looking all the way from Berlin, it might look like the right way to go, but the devil is in the details — the kind of questions you do, the timing and the way you calculate the referendum," said Pita.

Edited by: Keith Walker

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