The border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has strengthened the hand of the pro-junta leaders in Bangkok at the expense of the civilian government.

Thailand has experienced at least 12 military coups since 1931, and the army has long been a dominant force in politics. After the 2014 coup, a junta ruled the country until a civilian government returned following the 2023 elections.

And while another coup may not be imminent at the moment, the military seems to be expanding its already immense influence in the wake of the latest border clashes.

Civilian oversight 'minimal'

Tensions with Cambodia have been simmering for more than a year but flared in April, when a Cambodian soldier was killed during a brief skirmish with Thai troops along the border.

On July 24, after Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine, five days of fighting left more than 40 people dead and hundreds wounded on both sides. The two nations agreed on a ceasefire at the end of the month.

The conflict has "effectively given the Thai military free rein to operate with little civilian oversight, which was already minimal to begin with," Napon Jatusripitak, visiting fellow at Singapore's ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, told DW.

Thailand's politics in chaos

The 2023 general election ended with the Move Forward party poised to take power in Thailand.

However, post-election negotiations saw the second-placed Pheu Thai party form an unexpected coalition with its former adversaries, including the militarist United Thai Nation Party of former junta leader Prayuth Chan-ocha.

The coalition was unpopular from the start, but it only began to unravel during the latest hostilities with Cambodia.

In June, then-Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra sought to de-escalate tensions with a telephone call to Cambodia's Senate president and former prime minister Hun Sen.

During the call, the 38-year-old Thai prime minister addressed Hun Sen, who was then nearing his 73d birthday, as "uncle" and professed love and respect for the veteran leader.

She also appeared to criticize her own army's actions and hinted that some of the Thai generals were using the conflict for political purposes.

Hun Sen soon leaked the recording of the call in what could be seen as an attempt to weaken Thailand during the border crisis.

Shinawatra clan faces new attack

The fallout in Thailand was swift. The conservative Bhumjaithai party quit the coalition, and Paetongtarn's Pheu Thai party faced accusations of treason.

In June, General Nattaphon Narkphanit of the United Thai Nation Party became acting defense minister, while generals have also captured some other key posts.

The prime minister was suspended by the Constitutional Court in early July, pending trial.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted by the military in 2006, and the niece of Yingluck Shinawatra, who was removed in the 2014 coup.

'No need to wait for orders'

The shift has "effectively handed the defense ministry to the military to run as the generals see fit," Thitinan Pongsudhirak, senior fellow at the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University, told DW.

This is especially evident in Thailand's border regions, which "have long been effectively under martial law… giving soldiers control over border policy and limiting civilian control," Paul Chambers, a Thailand expert, wrote in Fulcrum, an online publication issued by ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, last week.

According to Chambers, the army has consistently undermined civilian-led de-escalation efforts since January.

When Thai soldiers were injured by Cambodian-laid landmines in mid-July, General Boonsin, commander of the Thai Second Army Region, openly stated that retaliation was necessary and that "there is no need to wait for orders from the government."

Thai voters trust the military more than the government

Analysts told DW that the Thai military was riding a surge of public nationalism, with celebrities and politicians harassed on social media with accusations of not being patriotic enough.

A poll published by the National Institute of Development Administration last week found that Thais trust the military the most in protecting the national interest and resolving the conflict with Cambodia.

Only 15% of respondents said they had any level of trust in the civilian government over these matters.

The ceasefire with Cambodia came after US President Donald Trump warned both Bangkok and Phnom Penh they would face stiff export tariffs unless they halted hostilities.

Truce talks were mediated by Malaysia, the current chair of ASEAN, but the agreement has been only partially upheld.

With the military in charge "the ceasefire agreement remains fragile," said Thitinan from the Bangkok-based Chulalongkorn University.

Cambodia is expected to continue pushing for international involvement to boost domestic support, while the Thai army is likely to mount a "heavy-handed" response and risks further escalation, Thitinan warned.

Will Shinawatras bring back the junta?

The future of the Thai government may hinge on upcoming court rulings concerning Paetongtarn Shinawatra and her father, Thaksin, the main powerbroker of the Pheu Thai party.

The Constitutional Court is expected to decide whether to ban Paetongtarn from politics by early September, while Thaksin faces imprisonment for alleged royal defamation.

A political collapse of the Shinawatra clan and the Pheu Thai, central to Thai politics since the 1990s, would strengthen conservative and militarist factions, analysts say.

"The party is unready to face the electorate but may also find it increasingly untenable to continue in office without making further compromises with its conservative allies in the coalition," Ken Lohatepanont, a PhD candidate at the University of Michigan, told DW.

The crisis makes "more plausible" the return of former junta leader Prayut Chan-ocha, who ruled between 2014 and 2023, Lohatepanont said.

Prayut's United Thai Nation Party currently keeps the coalition afloat, and his comeback could be the price Pheu Thai pays to avoid an election it is likely to lose.

And even if the election is called, the clashes have boosted the popularity of the military and its allies.

Another coup is "unlikely but never off the table, especially as the military is resurgent in view of the border conflict," Thitinan said.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic