At the beginning of the current war with Iran, US President Donald Trump was clear about the goals: Tehran should no longer pose a nuclear or conventional military threat, and the weakened mullah regime should be removed from power. Since then, Trump and other top US officials have mentioned different reasons for the US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth even said on Monday that the current conflict was "not a so-called regime change war."

But given US history, it would not be surprising if Trump's original rational was indeed one of the motivating factors behind the military intervention. After all, the United States has more in-depth experience with so-called "regime change" operations than any other country. 

During the Cold War alone (1947-1989), the US made 72 attempts to change the balance of power abroad in its favor, according to a study from 2019. 64 of these cases were covert operations by the secret services, with a success rate of around 40%.

In 1953, for example, the US' foreign intelligence service CIA, together with its British MI6 counterpart, succeeded in overthrowing then-Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh. As a result, Iran's new ruler Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was increasingly seen as a "lackey of the US" and was overthrown during the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The theocratic and ever more repressive regime established at that time is now at the center of the current airstrikes.

Even a seemingly successful regime change operation can lead to new problems in the long run. Here is an overview of selected covert and overt regime change operations involving the US.

Libya (2011)

When Arab Spring uprisings fueled hopes for change throughout North Africa in 2011, resistance to long-time ruler Moammar Gadhafi also swelled in Libya. The US, under then-President Barack Obama, quickly sided with his opponents, the so-called National Transitional Council.

The US, France, and the UK carried out airstrikes, soon under the umbrella of NATO's Operation Unified Protector. In October, a US drone and a French fighter jet attacked Gadhafi's convoy before he was killed by fighters from the National Transitional Council.

Almost 15 years later, Libya remains politically divided and marked by massive instability.

Iraq (2003)

On May 1, 2003, a few weeks after the fall of dictator Saddam Hussein, then-US President George W. Bush proclaimed the supposed end of the Iraq War: A banner on the deck of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln read "Mission Accomplished."

"The transition from dictatorship to democracy will take time, but it is worth every effort. Our coalition will stay until our work is done. Then we will leave, and we will leave behind a free Iraq," Bush stated.

However, the subsequent occupation period brought neither peace nor stability: State institutions remained weak, and neighboring Iran supported Iraq's local Shiite militias, which engaged in increasingly violent clashes with Sunni units. Amid the power vacuum, the so-called "Islamic State" terror group (ISIS) rose to become a powerful player, further destabilizing Iraq, Syria and the entire region.

According to US historian Joseph Stieb, the Americans were laboring under the false assumption at the time that the values of liberal democracy would prevail in such a situation.

"They believed that regimes like Iraq's would be relatively easy to replace after they were overthrown," Stieb said.

Afghanistan (2001)

The fighting in Iraq wasn't George W. Bush's only "regime change" war. Four weeks after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the US military launched "Operation Enduring Freedom" in Afghanistan. While the Taliban regime was quickly overthrown, the new US-backed government was only able to hold its ground for a limited period of time.

After the international forces, including Germany, reduced their troop contingents in 2014, the Taliban group gradually regained ground. They carried out attacks and visibly weakened the unity government. In the last year of his first term as US president, Donald Trump agreed with the Taliban to withdraw the remaining US soldiers in exchange for them not being attacked. However, immediately after the withdrawal of the last remaining US soldiers under Joe Biden in 2021, the Taliban regained complete control and returned to the political system that had been in place before the US invasion.

Panama (1989)

Panama was ruled by dictator Manuel Noriega in the 1980s. After years on the CIA payroll, he became a liability for the US government. Under his rule, Panama was a hub for drug traffickers, and the US feared it would be sidelined in the planned expansion of the Panama Canal.

In May 1989, opposition politician Guillermo Endara won the presidential election, but Noriega refused to recognize the result. The situation escalated throughout 1989 until then-US President George H. W. Bush ordered the military operation "Just Cause" to remove Noriega from power in December. On December 20, Endara was sworn in as president and two weeks later, Noriega surrendered. He subsequently served various prison sentences in the US, France and Panama and died in 2017. The cost of the military operation was later reported to be $331 million (€285m).

Grenada (1983)

From 1979 onwards, the Caribbean state of Grenada increasingly aligned its politics with those of the Soviet Union. When incumbent Prime Minister Maurice Bishop sought to appease the US, he was deposed and assassinated by military units. Against this backdrop, then-US President Ronald Reagan, supported by several Caribbean states, launched an invasion.

However, this happened against strong opposition from the British government, which viewed the Commonwealth member as under the UK's sphere of influence. After the withdrawal of US troops, a British governor oversaw transition and elections in 1984.

Dominican Republic (1965)

After several coups, the Dominican Republic  was on the brink of civil war in 1965. Following a vote by the Organization of American States, then-US President Lyndon B. Johnson launched an invasion. Its primary aim was to protect American citizens, but unofficially it was also to prevent a "second Cuba," which would have meant a socialist state in the immediate neighborhood, in the midst of the Cold War. With up to 44,400 soldiers, the US ensured that their preferred head of government took power.

Venezuela (2026)

The most recent potential "regime change" operation occurred so recently that a final assessment is not yet possible: in early January 2026, US President Trump arranged for Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro to be abducted. He is to be tried in New York for "drug terrorism."

In Venezuela, his former deputy Delcy Rodriguez has risen to the top of the state. Although she is part of the Maduro regime, Trump has announced that he will cooperate with her. In return, the US is to gain access to the South American country's gigantic oil reserves.

However, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner and Trump supporter María Corina Machado recently announced her intention to return to Venezuela and lead the country to democracy.

Two months after the US's targeted intervention, it is still unclear where Venezuela is headed.

This article was originally published in German.