The concept of peace talks is not new in Afghanistan. As early as 2010, during a fresh deployment of NATO troops, Afghan President Hamid Karzai decided to call upon rebels to end the fighting and join the government in peace talks: "dear Taliban brothers, we are all Afghans, let us come together to rebuild our country!"

It seemed like a good plan.

Ticking clock

A year on and the Afghan government has not been able to establish direct contact with the leaders of the insurgency, let alone conduct negotiations with them. Former Taliban operative Abdul Salaam Saeef says the Taliban is "not willing to talk with the government. The problem is not with the government. The problem is with the foreigners. They are fighting against the foreigners, not against the government."

The clock is ticking for the Karzai government and its allies. Journalist Fahim Dasty says the Taliban are quite aware of that and are thus in no rush to conduct peace talks. "They feel that they can take back Afghanistan after 2014. Why should they negotiate?"

He fears the Taliban are fighting to restore power to the Islamic dictatorship, in which case any progress made with regard to human rights would be reversed. But Masoom Stanakzai, head of the Afghan government’s Secretariat for High Peace Council, does not believe the Taliban has enough recognition from the people to be of any threat. "You cannot come out of hiding, so how will you run the country?"

Power of the people

Even if the Taliban were to gain influence, Seema Samar, head of the Afghani Human Rights Commission, does not believe the Afghan people would be so willing to give up the rights they have gained since 2001. She says the government should not make too many compromises. "First, human rights and justice should not be undermined." The process must also be transparent, she adds, and have support from the public. And last but not least, "the involvement of women is crucial."

Former British ambassador to Afghanistan Sherrard Cowper Coles believes the talks are far off. "The only way the Taliban are going to get engaged is if there’s pressure from their sponsors in Pakistan - if the Pakistanis are brought into the process, the region is brought into the process, and there is outside-in pressure on the Taliban to talk."

However, seeing that current Pakistani political strategy is focused on domestic issues as well as on Indo-Pakistan relations, time seems to be on Taliban leader Mullah Omar’s side.

Author: Sabine Matthay / Sarah Berning
Editor: Grahame Lucas