As official talks kick off in Jamaica on the need for rules to protect the ocean floor for generations to come, the world's first commercial deep-sea mining operation in international waters may be about to get underway. 

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has yet to formally announce whether it will begin reviewing a controversial application to begin extracting seabed metals. 

But if, as expected, the agency stamps the application as "ready to review," it will then have six months to decide whether The Metals Company (TMC), a Canadian startup, can begin mining the deep seas. 

TMC submitted its application after US President Donald Trump signed an April executive order to fast-track private claims to scour the ocean floor for precious minerals, even though no global rules for such activity yet exist.

Under UN law, international waters are considered by 169 countries and the European Union to be the "common heritage of humanity." Unlike the US, they are all members of the International Seabed Authority (ISA), which was established to protect ocean-floor ecosystems. It does not allow deep-sea mining, though it has issued some exploration permits. 

As the seabed is known to hold rich deposits of minerals like copper, cobalt, and nickel, minerals considered important for EV batteries and a green energy transition, deep-sea is very attractive for mining enterprises like TMC.

The company and the Trump adminitration have framed any mining activity off the back of the president's April executive order as a matter of national security and a way to compete with China, which dominates the rare earth elements market. 

But scientists, legal experts and industry analysts are warning that the risks to the climate, international law, and the ocean itself, may outweigh the rewards.

The same story, deeper waters?

This isn't the first time Gerrard Barron, CEO of The Metals Company has made a bold bet to mine the ocean. A decade ago, he was an early investor in a Canadian company called Nautilus Minerals, that pledged to extract metals including copper and gold from the seabed off the Pacific Island state of Papua New Guinea. 

A little over a decade after going public on the Toronto Stock Exchange in 2007 and raising hundreds of millions from investors, Nautilus went bankrupt without ever commerically mining the sea. Barron bailed early and reportedly left with approximately $30 million. But Papua New Guinea, which has limited resources to invest in infrastructure, education, or health, was left with rusting equipment and over $120 million (€101 million) in public losses — in keeping with exchange rates of the time.

TMC began its current journey as DeepGreen, founded in 2011 by Nautilus Minerals' former CEO David Heydon. Gerrard Barron later took over, became CEO and ahead of its public listing in 2021, rebranded the enterprise as The Metals Company.

This time, the idea is to mine the high seas, otherwise known as international waters. To do so, TMC acquired subsidiaries in the three small Pacific nations of Nauru, Tonga and Kiribati. Acting as state sponsors, they applied for ISA exploration contracts in the Clarion‑Clipperton Zone — an international seabed rich in polymetallic nodules. Though deep-sea mining there had not been sanctioned, the ISA was considering easing the rules. 

A company under pressure

By late 2023, TMC faced a double bind. The ISA had not established rules for commercial mining, and a growing list of European governments, including Germany,  Spain and Sweden as well as several Pacific Island states, had declared national moratoria or "precautionary pauses" on the practice. TMC's stock value tumbled in response, and the Nasdaq stock market index threatened delisting. 

So, The Metals Company changed tactics, according to information compiled by Greenpeace Germany investigation unit and the US-based anti-corruption nonprofit Anti-Corruption Data Collective.

Data seen and analyzed by DW shows that TMC shifted its lobbying strategy from ocean-policy committees, where environmental resistance was strongest, towards US defense and national security officials. Urging that seabed minerals were not just a green-tech resource but a national-security weapon against China.

In an earlier interview with DW, Barron said, "Trump being elected was very good news for us." Indeed, just weeks after the US president signed his executive order on deep sea mining, TMC share prices had shot up. They rose from $0.81 in late 2023 to $6.81 in June this year.

How vital are these metals?

TMC also still says its mining plans are essential for the clean energy transition. Among other metals, the nodules it is hoping to retrieve from the seabed contain cobalt and nickel, which once dominated EV batteries. And copper which powers nearly every electric system. But demand forecasts are evolving.

"Battery chemistry has changed dramatically," said Tony Dutzik, a senior analyst at the US-based environmental-policy think tank Frontier Group. 

LFP batteries, which use no cobalt or nickel, now make up over 50% of the global EV battery according to the recent numbers from IEA. "That undercuts the urgency," Dutzik said.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand for cobalt and nickel is now only expected to double in net zero scenarios by 2040, a more modest outlook than earlier expectations of steeper growth. Meanwhile, the IEA estimates that more than half of cobalt demand and 12% of nickel could be met through recycling.

"According to the ISA's own estimates, copper from deep-sea mining would meet only about 1% of global demand by 2035," Dutzik added. "If we focused more seriously on recycling and smarter product design… we could significantly reduce the need for new mining—whether on land or at sea."

TMC did not respond to a request for additional comment on changes to its narrative around why deep sea mining is critical.

National security or political spin?

Alex Gilbert, an energy-and-resource analyst at the Payne Institute, says the "real linchpin is processing," adding that is "where China is explicitly using control right now." Because most processing is done in China, he says mining access alone would not loosen Beijing's grip. 

Even so, Gilbert says if "proven viable" deep-sea nodules "can be a potential part of the solution, not the solution." Of the roughly 50 minerals Washington deems critical, polymetallic nodules cover four. "If DSM can help with those four, that's a real benefit," he said, providing the United States, or close allies, builds the first dedicated nodule refineries on land.

Will deep sea mining damage the ocean floor?

TMC insists its impact on the seabed will be minimal and says test operations show promise for ecosystem recovery over time. But deep-sea biologists like Beth Orcutt remain unconvinced.

In sites where small-scale mining tests were done in the 1980s, the senior scientist at the Bigelow Laboratory  for Ocean Sciences in Maine, said microbial life still hadn't recovered decades later. "These are not dead zones. They're living systems."

Orcutt's research shows that microbial communities support essential ecosystem functions, including carbon cycling, nutrient retention, and possibly even oxygen production. 

"We don't yet understand what we're destroying," she said. "And once it's gone, we can't bring it back."

The production of this investigation was supported by a grant from the Investigative Journalism for Europe (IJ4EU) fund.

Edited by: Tamsin Walker