In just ten days, the Middle East has seen a rapid escalation in violence. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an airstrike, Israel initiated a ground invasion of Lebanon, and Iran launched nearly 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.

This uptick follows nearly a year of cross-border skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah — considered a terrorist organization by Israel, Germany, the US and several other countries — which was previously limited to the border regions, and coincides with Israel's ongoing war in Gaza against Hamas.

On Saturday, the Israeli military reported that its forces had struck Hezbollah fighters inside a mosque adjacent to the Salah Ghandour Hospital in southern Lebanon. The hospital, run by the Hezbollah-affiliated Islamic Health Committee, said that nine of its medical staff were seriously injured after receiving a warning to evacuate. Hezbollah confirmed that its fighters were engaged with Israeli forces in southern Lebanon and claimed to have hit an Israeli tank with a missile near the border. Additionally, Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel's Ramat David Airbase, about 45 kilometers from the Lebanese border.

More than 10,000 cross-border attacks

Hezbollah initiated attacks on Israel nearly a year ago, claiming to act in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza as Israel waged war on the enclave in response to the October 7 massacre.

The conflict escalated further on October 1, 2024, when Israel began a ground invasion of southern Lebanon.

As seen in the chart, the number of Israeli attacks on Lebanon tripled in the week leading up to the invasion, while Hezbollah's counterattacks also increased, though in smaller numbers.

 

 

 

Israel has conducted approximately 8,300 attacks along the 120-kilometer border, nearly four times the number launched by Hezbollah. The Israeli government asserts that its military operations aim to prevent Hezbollah from launching rockets and drones over the border, which it has done nearly daily over the past year. The militant group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, had previously stated that Hezbollah did not seek a wider war but would respond to Israel's actions. After Nasrallah's assassination on September 27, Hezbollah's new leadership pledged to persist in the fight as Israel ramped up its airstrikes across Lebanon.

Escalation of airstrikes on Beirut and beyond

In recent days, Israel has intensified airstrikes on Beirut, specifically targeting Dahieh, a Hezbollah stronghold in the city's southern suburbs. This densely populated area, which houses thousands of civilians, has been hit repeatedly, and Nasrallah himself was killed in a strike on the area.

 

 

Airstrikes by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) along the border have also continued to intensify as it seeks to dismantle what it describes as Hezbollah's "terrorist infrastructure."

In addition, Israel has carried out airstrikes in the northern city of Tripoli, Lebanon's second-largest city located approximately 80 kilometers from the border, targeting Hamas members. On Saturday, Hamas announced that an airstrike in Tripoli killed one of its field commanders, Saeed Atallah Ali, along with his wife and two daughters.  In the eastern city of Saddnaye, near the Beqaa Valley, another airstrike resulted in the death of Muhammed Hussein al-Lawis, whom the Israeli army identified as Hamas's 'executive authority' in Lebanon.

The situation along the border

When the IDF launched its ground incursion into southern Lebanon, commanders stated that their operations would be localized and targeted, aimed at dismantling Hezbollah's capabilities and preventing the militia from firing rockets and artillery into Israel's northern cities. However, there are growing demands from Israeli hardliners, including government officials, for broader military objectives, such as establishing a more permanent 'buffer zone' in Lebanese territory.

For instance, Amichai Chikli, Israel's Minister of Diaspora and Combating Antisemitism, has gone so far as to assert, 'Lebanon, despite having a flag and political institutions, does not meet the definition of a country.' He added that it is imperative to eliminate enemy populations, emphasizing that doing so is both a security necessity and a moral imperative, as he expressed in a post on X.

Israel has consistently called for Hezbollah to withdraw to the Litani River, located about 18 miles north of the border established by the United Nations following the 2006 war. The IDF has also ordered residents of 30 villages in southern Lebanon to evacuate further north, beyond the Awwali River, approximately 30 miles from the border."

Casualties and displacement

The conflict has displaced 1.2 million people in Lebanon, according to local authorities. Displacement shelters are at capacity, forcing many families to camp along Beirut's waterfront or on nearby beaches. Over 2,000 people have been killed since last year, as reported by Lebanon's health ministry.

On the Israeli side, approximately 34 people have died in northern Israel throughout the exchange of fire on the border, according to government reports. Additionally, around 68,000 residents from northern communities remain displaced, according to the Knesset, the Israeli parliament.

The ground invasion has resulted in increased military casualties within the IDF. On Wednesday, just one day after the invasion commenced, the IDF confirmed the deaths of eight soldiers — the first fatalities of the ground campaign. On Friday, Hezbollah claimed to have killed 17 Israeli soldiers in clashes near the border."

Israel's multi-front war

This conflict extends beyond the Israel-Lebanon border. Israel is now engaged in military operationson multiple fronts, including Gaza, Lebanon, and various locations across the Middle East. Iran, a key supporter of Hezbollah, has directly intervened, attacking Israeli targets with rockets twice since April. The latest missile barrage on Tuesday marked a significant escalation, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to promise swift retaliation. "This was a major mistake," Netanyahu warned, asserting that Iran "will pay the price."

 

 

As the situation develops, it remains uncertain how long Israel's multi-front conflict will continue or the extent of its potential consequences. With hostilities involving various regional actors, the risk of a broader and more devastating war looms large.

Edited by: Andreas Illmer