UN climate talks in Belem, Brazil, are heading toward a showdown over which countries are willing to make real progress on phasing out fossil fuels.

Emissions from burning oil, coal, and gas are at record levels, driving climate change, which is already claiming millions of lives and wreaking havoc on ecosystems and economies.

Yet fossil fuels have long been a charged topic at UN climate summits. It took 28 years before a COP final decision officially recognized the need to "transition away from fossil fuels."

In Belem this year, a growing diplomatic effort driven by dozens of countries aims to build on that pledge in the form of a roadmap to accelerate the move away from oil, gas and coal.

"We need an actionable outcome, not another roadmap to nowhere," said Jasper Inventor, Deputy Programme Director, Greenpeace International, in a statement.

Still, with most oil-producing nations opposing the idea and a record share of fossil fuel industry lobbyists present at the COP30 climate negotations, the path ahead is unlikely to be smooth.

What are countries pushing for?  

The issue had already flared before the summit opened, when Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva — himself under fire for approving an oil exploration project at the mouth of the Amazon — urged world leaders to work toward ending fossil-fuel dependence.

In his "Call of Belem for the Climate," Lula further reinforced the message, urging the development of a timeline for the progressive phase-out of fossil fuels and greater financial support for developing countries.

In response, countries seeking more ambitious emissions cuts have formed a coalition. France, Colombia, Germany, Kenya, and others are urging that a fossil fuels roadmap be added to the official agenda and potentially reflected in the summit's outcome.

The diplomatic push in Belem has been supported by Brazil's Environment Minister Marina Silva, who said she favors a roadmap "because it lays the foundation for a fair and planned transition" away from polluting oil, coal and gas.

While COP28 marked a historic call to transition from fossil fuels, it offered few details on how to get there. It was called "a death sentence" by campaigners from nations like the Pacific Islands, whose very existence is at risk if global heating is not brought under control.

So far around 60 countries from across Europe, Africa, Latin America and the Small Island Developing States are believed to have backed the move. Supporters are aiming to reach 100.

"Our priority for the coming days is to broaden this coalition, to speak to all the countries that believe we need to move forward and accelerate on this issue," said one source from the French delegation.

While most countries may not commit to a roadmap with specific dates or targets, it is hoped they could be pressed to report progress toward the goal for review at future COPs.

Jochen Flasbarth, German state-secretary for climate action, has said his country would support any decision for a roadmap in Belem.

Colombia is reported to have drafted a declaration on phasing out fossil fuels. A handful of states are believed to have signed the document, which will likely be published on Tuesday. 

What obstacles might the coalition face?  

The challenge will be to present a big enough bloc of support to force the roadmap onto the conference agenda, said Romain Ioualalen, global policy campaign manager at US-based advocacy organization Oil Change International. 

"It's a diplomatic puzzle that's taking shape," added Ioualalen. Yet the phase-out coalition faces stiff opposition.

Most oil-producing states, particularly Saudi Arabia, are believed to have unequivocally rejected the idea of a roadmap and are pushing back against diplomatic efforts in favor of it.

One negotiator estimated around 70 countries would oppose any new decision coming out of COP30 that addressed fossil fuels.

At COP28 in Dubai, major oil-producing nations resisted calls to transition away, proposing instead the alternative of phasing out fossil fuel emissions using technology such as carbon capture and storage, which has not been tested at scale.

Record share of fossil fuel lobbyists present

Adding weight to their corner is likely to be the record share of industry lobbyists at COP this year.  

One in every 25 participants in Belem represents the fossil fuel industry, according to a report this week from Kick Big Polluters Out, a coalition of 450 organizations pushing back against the influence of polluting industries in climate policymaking.  

An estimated 1,602 delegates with links to oil, coal and gas, including representatives of energy giants ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies, as well as state-owned oil firms, are in Belem. 

They outnumber the delegations of every country except Brazil and have two-thirds more conference passes than the 10 most climate-vulnerable countries combined. 

The report highlights a growing concern that those with a vested interest in sustaining fossil fuel dependency have outsized influence at COP summits.  

"It's common sense that you cannot solve a problem by giving power to those who caused it," said Jax Bonbon, a Kick Big Polluters Out coalition member based in the Philippines, which was recently struck by a devastating typhoon.

TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said he was not a lobbyist and had been invited to COP30. He also expressed skepticism about a roadmap, calling it a "European vision" and suggesting that more government regulation was not the answer.

Speaking to DW ahead of COP30, Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, noted that COP includes "so many strong voices that want to avoid the elephant in the room," which is fossil fuels.

Emissions from burning oil, coal, and gas hit record highs in 2025, and the world is now on track for a catastrophic 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warming by 2100. 

Rockström said advances on other major COP30 issues, such as forest protection or finance for adaptation, "can only be celebrated if we also see progress on the phase-out of fossil fuels." 

Edited by: Jennifer Collins