This Iraq region is sinking into the Earth (very slowly)
February 13, 2025
What you need to know.
- Tectonic changes are forcing the Zagros Mountains region in Iraq to sink.
- These processes take tens of millions of years to occur.
- Studies into the transformation of the region could help predict future earthquakes.
Iraq is sinking.
Or to be exact, the region surrounding the Zagros Mountains in the country’s north is.
A team of researchers has found a sinking oceanic "slab" below the Earth’s surface is pulling the northern region of Iraq down with it.
But we are not talking about a sinkhole where you can watch hills, trees and entire sections of land disappear before your eyes: The geological processes in question "are extremely slow, beyond the human time scale," Renas Koshnaw, a geologist currently based at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) told DW.
Koshnaw, who hails from Erbil, Iraq, is the lead author of a study on the movement of the tectonic plates underneath the Zagros Mountains, published in the journal Solid Earth.
"The effect of these processes cannot be felt instantly," he said — we are talking millions of years.
Why is the Iraqi region sinking?
In short, it's plate tectonics.
A growing tear is forming in a region along the Arabian and Eurasian continental plates known as the Neotethys oceanic slab. The slab, which formed the floor of an ancient ocean more than 66 million years ago, is splitting from southeast Turkey to northwest Iran. So now, the slab is sinking into the Earth's mantle.
"This process is complex and takes tens of millions of years," Koshnaw said.
Koshnaw led a joint research team from the University of Göttingen in Germany and University of Bern in Switzerland, which studied the area around the Zagros Mountains. They wanted to learn what happens to the underlying oceanic slab when two continental plates collide, as depressions surrounding the Zagros Mountains are deeper than would be expected given the area's moderate topography.
Today's mountain ranges, like the Zagros, are a result of these tectonic collisions. By looking at rock records and sediment, supported by deep-earth imaging, the researchers found the Neotethys slab is sinking and taking the Zagros region of Iraq with it.
Research results can be used for earthquake prediction.
The findings have several practical implications because they "reveal the mechanisms by which our planet operates," Koshnaw said.
"This study highlighted how dynamic our planet is and how connected its interior and exterior are."
Its results can be used to construct more exact geological models that depict activity deep beneath the Earth's surface. These models can help with earthquake prediction.
"Earthquakes are generated from displacements of rock layers along fractures, or faults," Koshnaw said. "This process could [take place] at any depth or scale. To understand where, at what depth, and at what scale a fault could occur, scientists need to understand the large-scale geological configuration and rock geometry."
This would make it easier to determine where earthquakes occur and how strong they will be.
That's important for the wider region where Koshnaw and his team did their research. In February 2023, several massive earthquakes hit southern and central Turkey as well as northern Syria, killing tens of thousands of people and causing widespread destruction.
Additionally, understanding the topography and how it has changed over millions of years "helps estimate at what depth the geothermal gradient can be high enough to produce heat for, for example, electricity production," Koshnaw said.
Edited by: Matthew Ward Agius
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