Fighting continues in Ethiopia, despite Ethiopia's premier Abiy Ahmed declaring victory over Tigrayan rebels in November 2020. With elections on the horizon, has the war in Tigray done more damage to Ethiopia's unity?
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The blunt comments by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the worsening humanitarian and human rights crisis in Ethiopia, and his references to an impending "disaster" in Tigray are a rude awakening for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.
Ahmed declared victory over the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in late November 2020. But six months later, the conflict is still going on, with the TPLF reportedly entrenching themselves and turning the conflict into a guerilla war. Eritrean troops, which Abiy belatedly admitted, were operating on Ethiopia's soil and reportedly sometimes wearing Ethiopian army uniforms, have still not left Tigray. TheUN says there is no sign of them leaving, either.
Blinken's comments bite
America's top diplomat openly pressing Ahmed to end the conflict in Tigray and demanding the withdrawal of Eritrean troops from Tigray "immediately, in full and in a verifiable manner" is telling.
Ethiopia is a longstanding American ally, and stability in Africa's second-most populous country is key to anchoring the greater Horn of Africa region.
"Biden wants to underline that the United States is returning to a hybrid foreign policy that includes stronger statements on values and human rights and governance in particular," says Alex Vines, head of the Africa Program at Chatham House, London.
For emphasis, the White House has appointed veteran diplomat Jeffrey Feltman as a special envoy for the Horn of Africa.
"This emphasis is not only the concern of Washington around the region but also other issues such as Sudan and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) issue, which is very important for the United States," he adds.
US allies Sudan and Egypt are also involved in the GERD dispute, where control of the Nile River's water is at stake.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: A never-ending saga
From corruption and mismanagement to a looming diplomatic crisis: Construction on Ethiopia's mammoth dam has been far from smooth sailing.
Image: DW/M. Gerth-Niculescu
A concrete colossus
At 145 meters high and almost two kilometers long, the Grand Renaissance Dam is expected to become Ethiopia's biggest source of electricity. As Africa's largest hydroelectric power dam, it will produce more than 15,000 gigawatt-hours of electricity, beginning in 2022. It will source water from Africa's longest river, the Blue Nile.
Image: DW/M. Gerth-Niculescu
The outlook so far
With more than 50% of Ethiopians still living without electricity, the government wants the dam to be up and running as soon as possible, so tens of millions of residents will be able to access power. The first of a total of 13 turbines are due to be operational by mid-2021.
Image: DW/M. Gerth-Niculescu
A long time in the making
Construction on the current dam began in 2011 — but the site was identified between 1956 and 1964. The coup of 1974 meant the project failed to progress, and it was not until 2009 that plans for the dam were resurrected. The $4.6 billion (€4.1 billion) project has consistently been the source of serious regional controversy, with its plan to source water from the Blue Nile.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Asmare
Transforming the landscape
In a few years, this entire area will be covered in water. The reservoir which is needed to generate electricity is expected to hold 74 billion cubic meters of water. Ethiopia wants to fill the artificial lake as soon as possible, but neighboring countries are concerned about the impact this might have on their own water supplies.
Image: DW/M. Gerth-Niculescu
Diplomatic deadlock
Egypt, in particular, fears that filling the reservoir too quickly will threaten their water supply and allow Ethiopia to control the flow of the Blue Nile. Ethiopia is insisting on having the reservoir filled in seven years. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi on Sunday, to discuss the matter.
Image: Imago Images/Xinhua
No solution in sight
However, two days of negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan in Washington over the weekend failed to solve the reservoir issue, despite the US stepping in to mediate. With no progress over the last four years, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed even called on South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa — and the 2020 chairperson of the African Union — to intervene in the dispute.
Image: Reuters/S. Sibeko
Back-breaking work
Amidst the heated negotiations, up to 6,000 employees are still working around the clock to get the dam completed by the deadline. The working conditions are not for the faint-hearted: In the hottest months, temperatures on the construction site can reach up to 50 degrees.
Image: DW/M. Gerth-Niculescu
Project mired in corruption
Over the years, construction was also delayed significantly due to ongoing corruption and mismanagement issues. Last month, 50 people were charged with severe graft offenses relating to the dam, including the former CEO of Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP).
Image: AFP/E. Solteras
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Yet the longer the conflict continues, cases of human rights violations mount, and a growing famine has shone an unwelcome spotlight on Abiy Ahmed's leadership.
"The conflict has certainly prioritized Ethiopia for many countries," says Alex Vines.
Ethiopia was previously seen as a success story of economic growth and lifting large numbers of people out of abject poverty. "Now Ethiopia has become very much an issue of security and geopolitics," Vines told DW.
With elections in Ethiopia scheduled for June 5, guaranteeing stability no longer seems a given.
Domestic elections in the balance
Abiy came to power in 2018 after several years of anti-government protests staged by Amhara and Oromo youth. Despite winning the Nobel Peace Prize the following year for opening up Ethiopia and making peaceful overtures to long-time foe Eritrea, Abiy's tenure has been marred by ethnic violence, capped by the war in Tigray which exploded in late 2020.
Analysts warn the hotly anticipated national elections could bring about more insecurity. Organizing the vote is already proving difficult.
Birtukan Medeksa, head of the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), has previously warned that insecurity has temporarily halted voter registration in several locations.
NEBE has not yet responded to DW's request for comment.
For Ethiopian political analyst Deyam Dalemo it is widely accepted that peace is a precondition for election. "The government is working to bring peace. However, there were conflicts in the recent past, and new conflicts may occur in the future," Dalemo told DW. He adds that the chances of the election actually happening largely depend on the government's ability to control clashes between rival ethnic groups.
"Canceling the election can backfire. It can create a legitimacy crisis for the government," Dalemo said. "Even though it is difficult, I believe the election should be conducted."
According to Yilkal Getnet of the Hibir Ethiopia Democratic Party, a smaller opposition party coalition member, an election is a non-starter.
"In short Ethiopia is in no condition to hold an election. Someone needs to stop the election, or at least put the brakes on it," he told DW, adding that the current government first needs to prove itself as a "legitimate organ" working for the Ethiopian people.
"There is a full-scale war going on in Tigray. Sudan also invaded some 40 to 50 km (25 - 31 miles) of our border. There is also the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis with Egypt."
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The Eritrea issue
Blinken's demand for Eritrean troop withdrawal is a problem for Prime Minister Ahmed, who has viewed cooperation with neighbors as a way to increase Ethiopian regional influence.
"This is going to be really difficult tightrope for Ahmed, and this is not welcome news at all for Ethiopia," says Vines.
The balancing act has become harder, as reports emerged of Eritrean soldiers blocking and looting food aid in Tigray, backed up by Ethiopian government documents. The EU has since pulled development aid for Eritrea worth over 100 million Euros, originally designated to Eritrea after its 2018 rapprochement with Ethiopia.
Ethiopia: Tigrayans flee as fresh conflict erupts
Tens of thousands of Tigrayans are being driven from their homes by the Amhara militia. The latest conflict was sparked by a historic land dispute. Local towns are struggling to cope with the exodus.
Image: Baz Ratner/REUTERS
A temporary home
11-year-old Asmara holds her 1-year-old brother Barakat at the doorway to their living space at Tsehaye primary school in the town of Shire, which has been turned into a temporary shelter. Four months after the Ethiopian government declared victory over the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), tens of thousands of Tigrayans are again being forced to flee their homes.
Image: Baz Ratner/REUTERS
Waiting for food
Displaced Tigrayans queue for food at the temporary shelter. These people weren't driven from their homes by fighting between the Ethiopian government and the rebels. According to witnesses and members of Tigray's new administration, regional forces and militiamen from neighboring Amhara are now violently trying to settle a decades-old land dispute in the Tigray region.
Image: Baz Ratner/REUTERS
Disputed territory
The town of Adigrat in Tigray, which is also considered a strategically important gateway to Eritrea. Amhara officials say about a quarter of Tigrayan land was taken from them during the almost 30 years that the TPLF dominated power in the region. However, Tigrayan officials say the area is home to both ethnic groups and the borders are set by the constitution.
Image: Baz Ratner/REUTERS
On patrol
Ethiopian soldiers on the back of a truck near Adigrat. Fighters from Amhara first entered Tigray in support of federal Ethiopian forces during the TPLF conflict. They have remained in the region since the fighting subsided, with local officials accusing them of driving out Tigrayans.
Image: Baz Ratner/REUTERS
Basic comforts
A man carries mattresses into the Tsehaye primary school in Shire. The latest territorial dispute threatens to worsen an already precarious humanitarian situation. According to Tewodros Aregai, the interim head of Shire’s northwestern zone, the town was already hosting 270,000 people before the latest influx of refugees and is running out of food and shelter.
Image: Baz Ratner/REUTERS
New arrivals
A bus carrying displaced Tigrayans arrives in Shire. It is difficult to verify the exact number of people who have fled in recent weeks, as some have been displaced several times. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) says some 1,000 arrive in Shire every day, while the Norwegian Refugee Council says between 140,000-185,000 arrived over a two-week period in March.
Image: Baz Ratner/REUTERS
From campus to shelter
Displaced Tigrayans try to make themselves at home at the Shire campus of Aksum University, which has also been turned into a temporary shelter. The four centers set up in the town to house new refugees are almost full. Some families squeeze into classrooms, halls and half-finished buildings, while others make do camping under tarpaulins or on open ground.
Image: Baz Ratner/REUTERS
Holding loved ones close
A woman holds an infant inside a temporary refugee shelter at the Adiha secondary school in Tigray's capital, Mekelle. Many of the Tigrayans who have fled their homes have described attacks, looting and threats by Amhara gunmen, with some bearing scars from their ordeal.
Image: Baz Ratner/REUTERS
An echo of conflict
A burned-out tank near the town of Adwa stands as a stark reminder of the simmering conflict in the Tigray region. The United Nations has already warned of possible war crimes taking place in Tigray, while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said ethnic cleansing is taking place and called on Amhara forces to withdraw from Tigray.
Image: Baz Ratner/REUTERS
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Yohannes Gebre Egziabher contributed to this article.