Recep Tayyip Erdogan has won every election in Turkey for the past 16 years. The current economic crisis means he is now in danger of losing his parliamentary majority — and re-election as president is far from certain.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/Y. Akgul
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If the latest opinion polls are to be believed, between45 and 55 percent of the Turkish electorate will cast their vote for the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in parliamentary and presidential elections on June 24th. In reality, though, that figure could be far lower.
Hakan Bayrakci owns the opinion research institute SONAR. He says the people in power in Turkey have created a climate of fear, and as a result almost ten percent of voters won't be open about their preferred candidate. According to Bayrakci, these voters give false statements in surveys, meaning that it's highly likely the election result will deviate from the opinion polls.
Since Turkey adopted constitutional reforms in a referendum in April 2017, the electorate has had two votes: one for the new president, the other to decide which parties will have seats in parliament. Erdogan has not lost an election in 16 years, but the forthcoming elections are likely to be the most difficult of his political career. His Islamic-conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has shaped Turkish politics ever since his first victory in 2002, is also preparing for its toughest election yet.
Turkey's problems are getting worse
Özer Sencar, who owns the opinion research institute Metropoll, has been following Erdogan's career for 25 years. He says Erdogan has never run such a bad election campaign. Erdogan no longer determines the agenda or presents any vision for the future; when he appears in public he seems weak and lacks passion, Sencar told DW: "He's never made so many mistakes in his speeches." Sencar doubts Erdogan will hold on to power.
Erdogan has ruled Turkey for 16 years and has long been regarded as the strongest force in Turkish politics. His greatest success was the revival of the economy. Over the past decade and a half, average annual income has risen from the equivalent of $3,500 (€3,020) to $10,000 and there has been a construction boom all over the country.
Today, though, the Turkish economy is not in good shape. Since the attempted coup in July 2016 and the state of emergency that followed, the Turkish lira has lost more than 30 percent of its value. There is almost no investment any more. The international markets' confidence in the Turkish economy is dwindling. Erdogan, who publicly rejected interest rates based on religious conviction, had to turn a blind eye when the Turkish central bank raised key rates in recent weeks. Turkey now has the fourth-highest interest rates in the world, after Argentina, Venezuela and Iran.
"For the first time in 16 years Erdogan is not successful. He can no longer run the economy. The problems in education and health care are also increasing," Sencar said. Turkish people are starting to feel the effects of the economic crisis, he added, which explains the lack of enthusiasm at Erdogan's election campaign events.
Jailed candidate runs in Turkey
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Opposition increasingly motivated
Gülfem Saydan Sanver also observes that Erdogan is finding it increasingly difficult to communicate his message to the people. Sanver won the Pollie Award of the American Association of Political Consultants with her doctorate on the AKP's electoral success. She argues Erdogan's one-man shows within the party are now a disadvantage. "He stands there alone, at meetings and giving speeches, and he can't get his message across,” said Sanver.
The main beneficiary, Sanver says, is Muharrem Ince. The presidential candidate of the social-democrat Republican People's Party (CHP) has recently increased his opinion poll rating to over 30 percent, and the main opposition is now even more motivated to win the election. "Erdogan is still trying to play to the fears of right-wing conservative voters," Sanver told DW. This, she says, is why he has been talking about military operations against the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) in northern Iraq in recent election speeches, in an attempt to stir up fear among the electorate. If voters are afraid, they fear a change of leader and are more likely to vote for the current president.
German-Turkish relations have deteriorated since the failed coup against Turkish President Erdogan in 2016 and the crackdown that followed. DW looks at some of the key moments that soured ties between Berlin and Ankara.
Image: picture-alliance/POP-EYE/B. Kriemann
The Böhmermann affair
March 31, 2016: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan filed charges against German comedian and satirist Jan Böhmermann over his "defamatory poem" about the Turkish leader. German prosecutors eventually dropped the charges on October 4, 2016, but the case sparked a diplomatic row between Berlin and Ankara.
German lawmakers pass resolution to recognize 1915 Armenian Genocide
June 2, 2016: The resolution passed almost unanimously. In response, Turkey recalled its ambassador in Berlin and Germany's Turkish community held protests in several German cities. Turkey had repeatedly criticized the use of the term genocide to describe the Ottoman-era Armenian killings, arguing that the number of deaths had been inflated, and that Turkish Muslims also perished in the violence.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/S. Gallup
Tensions following failed coup in Turkey
July 15, 2016: A faction of the Turkish military tried to overthrow President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but ultimately failed. Ankara accused Berlin of not taking a clear stand against the coup attempt or not doing anything about exiled preacher Fethullah Gulen's organization, who Erdogan blames for orchestrating the failed coup.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/S. Suna
Germany criticizes post-coup purge
Immediately following the attempted coup, Turkish authorities purged the army and judiciary, detaining thousands of people. The purge expanded to include civil servants, university officials and teachers. German politicians criticize the detentions. Turkish diplomats, academics and military members fled the country and applied for asylum in Germany.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/S. Suna
Kurdish rallies in Cologne
Erdogan's post-coup crackdown has also been condemned by Kurdish protesters at several mass demonstrations in the west German city of Cologne. Often the rallies have called for the release of Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Turkey considers to be a terror group. Ankara has accused Berlin of not doing enough to stop PKK activities.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/M. Meissner
Arrest of German citizens in Turkey
February 14, 2017: Deniz Yücel, a correspondent for the "Welt" newspaper, was taken into custody in Turkey. Other German nationals, including journalist Mesale Tolu and human rights activist Peter Steudtner were detained in Turkey for what Berlin dubbed "political reasons." Turkey accused them of supporting terrorist organizations. All three have since been released pending trial.
March 2017: A number of German localities blocked Turkish ministers from holding rallies in their districts ahead of an April referendum in Turkey to enhance President Erdogan's powers. The Turkish leader then accused Germany of using "Nazi tactics" against Turkish citizens in Germany and visiting Turkish lawmakers. German leaders were not amused by the jibe, saying Erdogan had gone too far.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/O. Berg
Spying allegations
March 30, 2017: Germany accused Turkey of spying on hundreds of suspected Gulen supporters as well as over 200 associations and schools linked to the Gulen movement in Germany. Turkish asylum-seekers have since accused officials working in Germany's immigration authority (BAMF) of passing on their information to media outlets with ties to the Turkish government.
Image: Imago/Chromeorange/M. Schroeder
Erdogan urges German-Turks not to vote for 'enemies of Turkey'
August 18, 2017: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan slammed three of Germany's main political parties as "enemies of Turkey" and told Turks living in Germany not to vote for them in September's general election. He singled out Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU), the Social Democrats (SPD), and the Greens. Merkel said Erdogan was "meddling" in Germany's election.
Image: picture-alliance/abaca/AA/M. Ali Ozcan
Merkel says Turkey should not become EU member
September 4, 2017: German Chancellor Angela Merkel said during an election debate that she didn't think Turkey should become a member of the European Union and said she would speak with other EU leaders about ending Ankara's accession talks. In October, she backed a move to cut Turkey's pre-accession EU funds.
Image: Reuters/F. Bensch
Turkey's military offensive in Afrin
January 20, 2018: The Turkish military and their Syrian rebel allies launched "Operation Olive Branch" against the Kurdish-held enclave of Afrin in northern Syria. The move was criticized by German politicians and prompted large protests by Kurdish communities in Germany.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/O. Kose
Journalist Deniz Yücel released from prison
February 16, 2018: Turkey ordered the release of German-Turkish journalist Deniz Yücel after he'd been held for over a year without charge. According to Turkish state media, Yücel was released on bail from pre-trial detention. Prosecutors asked for an 18-year jail sentence for Yücel on charges of "terror propaganda" and incitement.
Image: picture-alliance/Eventpress/Stauffenberg
Özil quits
July 2018: German footballer Mesut Özil quit the national team following the fallout from his meeting with the Turkish president. Özil said he was being made a scapegoat for Germany's forgettable performance at the FIFA World Cup in Moscow because of his Turkish heritage. Erdogan praised Özil's decision and slammed the "racist" mistreatment of the footballer.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Presidential Press Service
Travel ban lifted
August 2018: A Turkish court removed the travel ban on German journalist Mesale Tolu, who was arrested last year on terrorism-related charges. But the trial against Tolu, who has since returned to Germany, is set to continue. Her husband, Suat Corlu, who is facing similar charges, has been ordered to remain in Turkey.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Schmidt
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End of the strong presidential system?
Recent polls suggest Erdogan could still win the presidential election in the second round. The so-called "republican alliance" of the AKP and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) could, however, forfeit its parliamentary majority to the opposition, which would mean Erdogan would no longer have a power base in parliament. The strong presidential system, which opposition politicians view as a form of dictatorship, would not materialize for him.
"If the AKP were to lose its parliamentary majority, Erdogan will face hard times ahead," said Sanver. Following the imposition of the state of emergency, Erdogan was able to pass laws and govern by decree. Sanver's assessment: "If the AKP no longer has a majority in parliament Erdogan will lose some of his current power, even if he's re-elected. He won't be an effective president, and he'll have to recognize the authority of the parliament."
