"In future, we will take decisive steps to realize our vision for Turkey and an entire region without terror," Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in his New Year's Day speech.

These words were a reference to the current reconciliation process between Turks and Kurds, which was initiated about three months ago by Erdogan's coalition partner Devlet Bahceli, chairman of the ultra-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

Last October, Bahceli had mastered a political turnaround when he shook hands with politicians from the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM).

Beforehand, Bahceli had claimed that the left-wing, pro-Kurdish DEM was an extension of the banned organization Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), and should be banned.

In the past, Bahceli's party had also called for the reintroduction of the death penalty, primarily to execute the imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan.

The paramilitary PKK is classified as a terrorist organization in the EU and the US and has been in armed conflict with the Turkish state since 1984.

Around 40,000 people are said to have been killed during the violent conflict between Turkey and the Kurdish PKK between 1984 and 2009.

An occasion for hope?

Ocalan, who founded the PKK in 1978, has been serving a life term in prison on Imrali Island off Istanbul since 1999.

Accordingly, Bahceli's next suggestion, namely that Ocalan could be released in exchange for renouncing violence and dissolving the PKK came as an even bigger surprise.

Shortly afterward, Bahceli also publicly commented on the "millennial brotherhood" between Turks and Kurds, saying, "Turkey's problem is not the Kurds, but their separatist terrorist organization." 

Ocalan replied in a statement that "I possess the necessary competence and determination to contribute positively to the new paradigm."

On December 28, two representatives of the pro-Kurdish DEM visited Ocalan in Imrali prison and said they were "full of hope."

DEM politicians are currently holding consultations with representatives of the Erdogan government and the opposition.

All to benefit Erdogan?

According to some observers, however, there is more realpolitik than love for the PKK behind the current initiative.

Erdogan seeks to secure a new term in office after 2028, which would be impossible under the current constitution.

Technically, there are two ways for Erdogan to run again: Either the constitution can be amended or parliament can opt for early elections.

The sticking point, however, is that the ruling alliance is 45 seats short to win such a vote.

DEM, with its 57 seats in parliament, could tip the balance in favor of an early election.

However, Berk Esen, a political scientist at Istanbul's Sabanci University, also sees another possible reason for this push.

Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) can no longer win elections because it lacks the Kurdish vote, he told DW. 

According to various estimates, Kurds make up between 15% to 20% of the Turkish population.

"The Erdogan system is in a major political and economic crisis," Esen said. "We saw that in the local elections in spring 2023 and under the current conditions, Kurdish voters prefer to vote for opposition candidates."

In turn, Esen believes that the ruling alliance had to do something to stop the downward spiral.

False optimism?

It is not the first time the Turkish government has attempted to reconcile with the Kurds in Turkey.

Initiatives have been launched to meet Kurds' demands of the Turkish state. These attempts were called an "opening up," "solution" or "normalization process," and, so far, have all failed.

"If politicians say in public that they are full of hope, implying that peace is closer than ever, there must have been some progress behind closed doors and the process must be reasonably advanced," political scientist Deniz Yildirim told DW.

However, he also added a warning against premature optimism.

"Turkey needs to solve this chronic problem by peaceful means so that no more blood is shed," Yildirim told DW. "Yet, it would be naive to expect this to take place in a time of authoritarian centralization, while at the same time freedom of the press and freedom of expression are being uprooted in the country and universities are being disempowered."

No reconciliation outside Turkey

After the end of the First World War, the Kurds' settlement area was divided between Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq. 

Since then, the Kurds have been fighting for their own state — or at least for more power to decide their own affairs.

In Turkey, they have been denied autonomous status to this day despite Erdogan's push for reconciliation with Ocalan and the PKK.

Across the border in Syria, Turkish-backed militias continue to fight Kurdish YPG fighters.

Turkey considers them as a threat to its territorial integrity.

Yet, while Turkey regards the YPG as a Syrian offshoot of the PKK, the Kurdish YPG fighters in Syria are supported by the US, which makes the balance of power in the region even more complicated.

Meanwhile, Turkey demands that Syria's transitional government disband the Kurdish militia YPG, which controls large parts of northern Syria.

However, Turkey's demands are not realistic from a Kurdish perspective, political scientist Esen said.

"After many years of bloodshed, the YPG has established itself as a power factor in north-eastern Syria. Regardless of what kind of agreement could be reached in Turkey, it is extremely unlikely that they will lay down their arms," he told DW.

Gülsen Solaker contributed to this article, which was originally published in German.