Turkey and Saudi Arabia have a complicated relationship. The killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has further strained those ties, and experts say it could change the balance of power in Middle East politics.
The killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Saudi Arabia's Istanbul consulate has put a strain on Turkey's relationship with the Gulf monarchy. Until recently, Turkey had been at pains to maintain good ties with the Saudis, while also keeping friendly relations with the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood — an organization Khashoggi supported, incidentally. Now, it seems, Turkey's political balancing act has come to an end; the gloves are coming off and Ankara wants Saudi Arabia to come clean about the killing.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed that Khashoggi's murder will be fully investigated. Former Turkish Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis believes Erdogan's tough new stance vis-a-vis Riyadh is not only a result of Khashoggi's death, but part of his broader political agenda.
Turkey's relationship to the Muslim Brotherhood — one of the most important political movements in the Arab world, which has its roots in Egypt — always played an important role in ties between Ankara and Riyadh. Indeed, it is well-known that the Saudis disapproved of Turkey's relationship with the Brotherhood.
Yakis is Turkey's former foreign ministerImage: privat
Even so, and despite the complicated state of Middle Eastern politics, Turkey is trying to uphold its ties to the organization, along with Iran, according to Yakis. In response to Turkey's Brotherhood relationship, Saudi Arabia has sought closer ties with Israel, he said. And the Gulf monarchy is also cooperating with the Kurds, a group long at odds with Erdogan's government — especially in Syria.
"The Kurds are America's closest ally in the fight against [Islamic State] in Syria," said Yakis, noting that they recently received arms worth $200 million (€174 million). "The weapons were provided by the US, the Saudi kingdom footed the bill." What's more, Turkey was rather irritated that the Kurds received such support, he added.
In light of the complicated Saudi-Turkish ties, Erdogan is using Khashoggi's murder as leverage against Riyadh, Yakis said. Erdogan has signaled that he has information which he could use against them, without revealing everything he knows, he explained, which will keep the Saudis and Turks busy in talks.
Experts say Khashoggi's murder may well change the balance of power in the Middle EastImage: picture-alliance/AA/O. Shagaleh
Deeply at odds
These talks could indicate that Turkey wishes to play a greater role in the Arab world. Indeed, during a visit to Egypt in early 2018, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman accused Turkey of supporting Iran and Islamist organizations, and blamed the country for working towards building an Arab caliphate.
Burak Bilgehan Ozpek, a political researcher at Ankara's TOBB University of Economics and Technology, said that Turkey has by and large ignored these accusations. Turkey did, however, severely criticize Saudi Arabia when it, together with several other Arab states, imposed an economic embargo on Qatar in 2017. So while Turkey was helping Qatar fight the embargo, it was simultaneously trying to keep tensions with the Saudi kingdom to a minimum.
Ozpek believes Khashoggi's murder has pushed Erdogan to pressure the Saudis. If Saudi Arabia reconsiders its stance in the region and with regard to Turkey, tensions may be reduced, he said, but noted he is nonetheless skeptical about whether the Khashoggi affair will be fully resolved.
"Turkey is acting as if it were in control of the case, and is feeding expectations of a transparent investigation," Ozpek said. Only time will tell if these expectation are met, he added, explaining that until that happens, there is no certainty over what really happened to Khashoggi.
Jamal Khashoggi: A mysterious disappearance and death
Official Saudi statements on the fate of journalist Jamal Khashoggi have changed several times since he disappeared at the Istanbul consulate on October 2. DW traces the most important events in this intricate case.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/J. Martin
Vanishes into thin air
October 2: Prominent journalist Jamal Khashoggi was last seen entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, where he had gone to obtain an official document for his upcoming marriage to his Turkish fiancee, Hatice Cengiz. He never emerged from the building, prompting Cengiz, who waited outside, to raise the alarm.
Image: Reuters TV
Confusion over whereabouts
October 3: Turkish and Saudi officials came up with conflicting reports on Khashoggi's whereabouts. Riyadh said the journalist had left the mission shortly after his work was done. But Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said the journalist was still in the consulate.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/V. Mayo
Murder claims
October 6: Turkish officials said they believed the journalist was likely killed inside the Saudi consulate. The Washington Post, for which Khashoggi wrote, cited unnamed sources to report that Turkish investigators believe a 15-member team "came from Saudi Arabia" to kill the man.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/H. Jamali
Ankara seeks proof
October 8: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on Saudi Arabia to prove that Khashoggi left its consulate in Istanbul. Turkey also sought permission to search the mission premises. US President Donald Trump voiced concern about the journalist's disappearance.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/T. Kovacs
'Davos in the Desert' hit
October 12: British billionaire Richard Branson halted talks over a $1 billion Saudi investment in his Virgin group's space ventures, citing Khashoggi's case. He also pulled out of an investment conference in Riyadh dubbed the "Davos in the Desert." His move was followed by Uber's Dara Khosrowshahi, JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon and a host of other business leaders.
Image: picture alliance/dpa
Search operation
October 15: Turkish investigators searched the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The search lasted more than eight hours and investigators removed samples from the building, including soil from the consulate garden and a metal door, one official said.
Image: Reuters/M. Sezer
Death after fistfight
October 19: Saudi Arabia finally admitted that Khashoggi died at the consulate. The kingdom's public prosecutor said preliminary investigations showed the journalist was killed in a "fistfight." He added that 18 people had been detained. A Saudi Foreign Ministry official said the country is "investigating the regrettable and painful incident."
Image: Getty Images/C. McGrath
'Grave mistake'
October 21: Saudi Arabia provided yet another account of what happened to Khashoggi. The kingdom's foreign minister admitted the journalist was killed in a "rogue operation," calling it a "huge and grave mistake," but insisted that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had not been aware of the murder. Riyadh said it had no idea where Khashoggi's body was.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/C. Owen
Germany halts arms sales
October 21: German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany would put arms exports to Saudi Arabia on hold for the time being, given the unexplained circumstances of Khashoggi's death. Germany is the fourth largest exporter of weapons to Saudi Arabia after the United States, Britain and France.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/S. Sauer
Strangled to death, dissolved in acid
October 31: The Turkish prosecutor concluded that Khashoggi was strangled to death soon after entering the consulate, and was then dismembered. Another Turkish official later claimed the body was dissolved in acid. Turkish President Erdogan said the order to murder the journalist came from "the highest levels" of Saudi Arabia's government.
Image: picture-alliance/AA/M. E. Yildirim
Grilled at the UN
November 5: Saudi Arabia told the United Nations it would prosecute those responsible for Khashoggi's murder. This came as the United States and dozens of other countries raised the journalist's death before the UN Human Rights Council and called for a transparent investigation.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/F. Coffrini
Fiancee in mourning
November 8: Khashoggi's fiancee, Hatice Cengiz, wrote on Twitter that she was "unable to express her sorrow" upon learning that the journalist's body was dissolved with chemicals. "Are these killers and those behind it human beings?" she tweeted.
Image: Reuters/Haberturk
Turkey shares audio recordings
November 10: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reveals that officials from Saudi Arabia, the US, Germany, France and Britain have listened to audio recordings related to the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Presidential Press Service
Symbolic funeral prayers
November 16: A symbolic funeral prayer for Khashoggi is held in the courtyard of the Fatih Mosque in Istanbul. Yasin Aktay, advisor to President Erdogan, speaks at the service.
Image: Reuters/M. Sezer
Saudi-owned villas searched
November 26: Turkish forensic police bring the investigation to the Turkish province of Yalova, where sniffer dogs and drones search two Saudi-owned villas in the village Samanli.
Image: Reuters/O . Orsal
100 days since killing
January 10: Amnesty International Turkey members demonstrate outside the Saudi Arabia Consulate in Istanbul, marking 100 day since the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. One woman holds up a street sign which reads "Jamal Khashoggi Street". The organization has called for an international investigation into the case.
Image: Reuters/M. Sezer
Saudi murder trial begins
January 3: The Khashoggi trial begins in Saudi Arabia, where state prosecutors say they will seek the death sentence for five of the eleven suspects. A request for the gathered evidence has been send to Turkish authorities. A date for the second hearing has not yet been set.
Image: picture-alliance/abaca/Depo Photos
UN inquiry team in Turkey
January 28: Agnes Callamard, who is leading the UN probe into the handling of the Khashoggi case, arrives in Ankara where she meets with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. The human rights expect will stay in the country for the rest of the week to speak with prosecutors and others involved in the case.
