As part of its post-Brexit global vision, Britain is hosting a UK-Africa trade forum this week. But with its new trade deals failing to offer African nations much extra, the UK is falling behind as a key trading partner.
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The United Kingdom is set to host a virtual UK-Africa conference on Wednesday to promote trade and investment opportunities in African markets.
The meeting takes place on the anniversary of the inaugural 2020 UK-Africa summit hosted with great fanfare by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who famously skipped the World Economic Forum in Davos to lead the event.
At last year's summit, Johnson said Britain had all it took to become Africa's "obvious partner of choice" for doing business post-Brexit when it was no longer tethered to European Union trade agreements with the continent.
The British government promised it would improve on the EU-Africa trade model and better protect the interests of African nations.
But the post-Brexit trade deals between the UK and African nations aren't much different than the old EU ones.
At the same time, Britain — despite its post-Brexit vision for a "Global Britain" and its long history in Africa as a former colonial power — is further falling behind as a trading partner and investor on the continent.
New trade deals basically the same as the old ones
Leaving the EU theoretically allows the UK to make independent trade agreements better tailored to individual African nations.
Brexit timeline: Charting Britain's turbulent exodus from Europe
Britain shocked the world when it voted to leave the European Union on June 24, 2016. DW traces the major events that have defined Brexit so far.
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June 2016: 'The will of the British people'
After a shrill referendum campaign, nearly 52% of British voters opted to leave the EU on June 23. Polls had shown a close race before the vote with a slight lead for those favoring remaining in the EU. Conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron, who had campaigned for Britain to stay, acknowledged the "will of the British people" and resigned the following morning.
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July 2016: 'Brexit means Brexit'
Former Home Secretary Theresa May replaced David Cameron as prime minister on July 11 and promised the country that "Brexit means Brexit." May had quietly supported the Remain campaign before the referendum. She did not initially say when her government would trigger Article 50 of the EU treaty to start the two-year talks leading to Britain's formal exit.
Image: Reuters/D. Lipinski
March 2017: 'We already miss you'
May eventually signed a diplomatic letter over six months later on March 29, 2017 to trigger Article 50. Hours later, Britain's ambassador to the EU, Tim Barrow, handed the note to European Council President Donald Tusk. Britain's exit was officially set for March 29, 2019. Tusk ended his brief statement on the decision with: "We already miss you. Thank you and goodbye."
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June 2017: And they're off!
British Brexit Secretary David Davis and the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, kicked off talks in Brussels on June 19. The first round ended with Britain reluctantly agreeing to follow the EU's timeline for the rest of the negotiations. The timeline split talks into two phases. The first would settle the terms of Britain's exit, and the second the terms of the EU-UK relationship post-Brexit.
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July-October 2017: Money, rights and Ireland
The second round of talks in mid-July began with an unflattering photo of a seemingly unprepared British team. It and subsequent rounds ended with little progress on three phase one issues: How much Britain still needed to pay into the EU budget after it leaves, the post-Brexit rights of EU and British citizens and whether Britain could keep an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
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December 2017: Go-ahead for phase 2
Leaders of the remaining 27 EU members formally agreed that "sufficient progress" had been made to move on to phase two issues: the post-Brexit transition period and the future UK-EU trading relationship. While Prime Minister Theresa May expressed her delight at the decision, European Council President Tusk ominously warned that the second stage of talks would be "dramatically difficult."
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July 2018: Johnson, Davis resign
British ministers appeared to back a Brexit plan at May's Chequers residence on July 6. The proposal would have kept Britain in a "combined customs territory" with the EU and signed up to a "common rulebook" on all goods. That went too far for British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Brexit Secretary David Davis, who resigned a few days later. May replaced them with Jeremy Hunt and Dominic Raab.
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September 2018: No cherries for Britain
May's Chequers proposal did not go down well with EU leaders, who told her at a summit in Salzburg in late September that it was unacceptable. EU Council President Tusk trolled May on Instagram, captioning a picture of himself and May looking at cakes with the line: "A piece of cake perhaps? Sorry, no cherries." The gag echoed previous EU accusations of British cherry-picking.
Image: Reuters/P. Nicholls
November 2018: Breakthrough in Brussels
EU leaders endorsed a 585-page draft divorce deal and political declaration on post-Brexit ties in late November. The draft had been widely condemned by pro- and anti-Brexit lawmakers in the British Parliament only weeks earlier. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned along with several other ministers, and dozens of Conservative Party members tried to trigger a no-confidence vote in May.
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December 2018: May survives rebellion
In the face of unrelenting opposition, May postponed a parliamentary vote on the deal on December 10. The next day, she met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to seek reassurances that would, she hoped, be enough to convince skeptical lawmakers to back the deal. But while she was away, hard-line Conservative lawmakers triggered a no-confidence vote. May won the vote a day later.
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January 2019: Agreement voted down
The UK Parliament voted 432 to 202 against May's Brexit deal on January 16. In response to the result, European Council President Donald Tusk suggested the only solution was for the UK to stay in the EU. Meanwhile, Britain's Labour Party called for a no-confidence vote in the prime minister, her second leadership challenge in as many months.
Image: Reuters
March 2019: Second defeat for May's deal
May tried to get legal changes to the deal's so-called Irish backstop in the weeks that followed. She eventually got assurances that the UK could suspend the backstop under certain circumstances. But on March 12, Parliament voted against the revised Brexit deal by 391 to 242. EU leaders warned the vote increased the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. Two days later, MPs voted to delay Brexit.
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March 2019: Extension after second defeat
Following the second defeat of May's divorce deal, the European Council met in Brussels on March 21 to decide what to do next. EU leaders gave May two options: delay Brexit until May 22 if MPs vote for the withdrawal deal or delay it until April 12 if they vote against the deal. If the deal were to fail again in Parliament, May could ask for a long extension.
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March 2019: Brexit deal rejected a third time
On March 29, the day that the UK was supposed to leave the EU, British lawmakers voted for a third time against May's deal — rejecting it this time with a vote of 344 to 286. Following the latest defeat, May approached the main opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in an attempt to find a compromise, angering hardline Brexiteers in her own Conservative party.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/House of Commons/M. Duffy
April 2019: Brexit delayed until Halloween
With the April 12 deadline looming after the third defeat of May's deal, EU leaders met again in Brussels to discuss a second delay. The only question was how long should it be? In the end, the UK and EU agreed to a "flexible" extension until October 31 — which can end sooner if the Brexit deal is approved. The UK had to take part in EU elections in May because their exit wasn't secured in time.
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May 2019: Prime Minister Theresa May resigns
Weeks of talks between Prime Minister Theresa May and the Labour party to reach a deal proved unsuccessful and further eroded her political capital. She triggered an angry backlash from her party after she tried to put the option of a second referendum on the table. The series of failures led May to announce her resignation, effective June 7, in an emotional address.
Image: Reuters/H. McKay
June 2019: Search for a new prime minister
After Theresa May announced on June 7 that she would leave office, other members of her Conservative party began clamoring for the top job. Within a month, the leadership battle came down to Jeremy Hunt (left), an EU proponent who fears a no-deal scenario, and Boris Johnson (right), one of the main proponents of Brexit.
July 2019: Prime Minister Boris Johnson
At the end of July 2019, Johnson was officially named Theresa May's successor as British prime minister. "We are going to energize the country, we are going to get Brexit done by October 31," he said after he was elected leader of the Conservative Party.
Image: Imago Images/Zuma/G. C. Wright
September 2019: Johnson's election threat
Conservative rebels and opposition MPs backed efforts to delay an October 31 Brexit deadline in fear of a no-deal departure. In response, Johnson called for a general election, saying his government cannot rule without a mandate after he stripped 21 rebel MPs of their Conservative status. The Labour Party said it would not back elections until legislation to block a no-deal Brexit was in place.
In late September, Britain's highest court ruled that Johnson's decision to suspend Parliament ahead of the UK's planned exit was unlawful. "This was not a normal prorogation in the run-up to a Queen's Speech," said the Supreme Court. Political rivals immediately called on Johnson to leave his post. Johnson said he would abide by the court ruling, though said he "strongly" disagreed.
Image: Reuters/H. Nicholls
October 2019: A new deal
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to secure a deal with European negotiators that would allow the UK to leave the EU in an orderly manner. The deal received unanimous backing from the leaders of 27 other member states. But an attempt to get the UK Parliament to sign off on the deal failed. Instead, Parliament pushed for the Brexit deadline to be extended until the end of January 2020.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Augstein
December 2019: Lawmakers vote for Johnson's Withdrawal Bill
On December 22, UK lawmakers vote for Prime Minister Johnson's European Union withdrawal bill, which will see a leave date of January 31 2020 enshrined in law. Getting a majority to vote to pass the bill in the lower house has proven a major sticking point for the PM, but following a general election Johnson's Conservative party won control of the house and the bill passed with a 124 majority.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/House of Commons
December 2020: EU, UK 'finally' reach trade deal
After months of disagreements over fishing rights and future business rules, the EU and UK clinched a post-Brexit trade deal on Christmas Eve. Prime Minister Boris Johnson hailed the deal, saying the UK has "taken back control of our laws and our destiny." The deal will allow the UK and the EU to trade without tariffs, but also impose limitations on free movement and financial services.
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So far, UK has inked post-Brexit trade deals with 13 African countries. But these new agreements, which offer duty-free and quota-free access to British markets, aren't much different to the old ones.
That's because they are primarily so-called rollover agreements — that is, they simply transfer the conditions in the EU deals into bilateral agreements between the UK and the African nation, or blocs.
The members of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) — which includes Botswana, Eswatini (formerly known as Swaziland), Lesotho, Namibia and South Africa, along with Mozambique — have signed one such agreement.
A similar deal was rolled over for Ivory Coast and Cameroon, as well as for the Eastern and Southern Africa bloc, covering Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles and Zimbabwe.
Kenya's trade deal drives a rift through East African trade bloc
Kenya has also signed a continuity trade deal with Britain, one of its top five trading partners in 2019. This allows Kenya to continue to export tea, coffee and spices, as well as vegetables and flowers to the UK without paying duties.
But the agreement has been harshly criticized for risking the integration of the East African Community (EAC), a trading bloc which is also working to negotiate a post-Brexit deal with the UK.
There's concern Kenya's go-it-alone deal will escalate trade tension within the EAC, which also includes Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Burundi and South Sudan.
The agreement could push the different trade tensions between the EAC's partner states over the edge, Ugandan-based policy analyst Africa Kiiza told Politico EU.
That's because the group's members are already blocking goods from each other.
"When you analyze the integration of the EAC, the EAC is shaky," Kiiza said. "It is disintegrating."
Least-developed countries enjoy preferential trade
Post-Brexit Britain has adopted the EU's "Everything But Arms" trade preferences. This means least developed countries in Africa exporting to Britain enjoy "quota-free access and nil rates of import duty on all goods other than arms and ammunition," according to Gov.uk, the official government website.
Developing nations such as Ghana — and more importantly Nigeria, Africa's largest economy — are excluded from this preferential trade treatment, however.
Both Ghana and Nigeria failed to seal an agreement with the UK before the end of the Brexit transition period on December 31, 2020.
Nigeria is probably unwilling to maintain the old trade status quo of exporting crude oil and agricultural raw materials to Britain and importing machinery and technology goods from the UK, according to economist Dirk Kohnert.
"Nigeria increasingly gets its industrial goods from Asian countries such as China and India," said Kohnert, a former researcher of African economies at Germany's GIGA Institute.
"Global trade is shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific, and the concept of 'Global Britain' will be difficult to implement in Nigeria."
Long live the Commonwealth
Britain has long come under fire for favoring the 19 African Commonwealth nations, most of which are former British colonies or have historical ties to the UK. The only two which don't are Rwanda and Mozambique.
With Johnson and his allies promising post-Brexit Britain will occupy a bold new place on the world stage under "Global Britain," it was thought that this might change.
But the new trade deals reinforce the UK's bias toward Africa's English-speaking nations, criticizes trade economist Rolf Langhammer from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany.
"The countries with which Great Britain has already concluded rollover agreements are almost without exception English speaking," Langhammer told DW. "So far Britain has hardly concluded any agreements with the large French-speaking countries in West Africa."
"It looks as if the British are now strengthening their old colonial relations and have no regard for the French- or Portuguese-speaking countries."
Top export nation
When it comes to buying products from the continent, Britain isn't that important for many African nations.
Goods and services from Africa make up just a tiny share of the UK's imports, accounting for 2.5% of the total goods imported into Britain.
Only eight nations from sub-Saharan Africa — mostly former colonies — count the UK in their top 10 export destinations, including Rwanda, Mauritius, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Mozambique, Kenya and South Africa.
The UK is South Africa's fourth biggest market for exports, after China, the US and Germany, accounting for more than 5% of South Africa's exports. These are primarily gold, diamonds and precious metals, followed by vehicles, fruit and nuts.
Trade expert Langhammer believes the UK could become even less important.
"Trade and direct investment depend on economic conditions. The UK will in all likelihood suffer large losses due to leaving the EU," he said. "Import demand will be negative and that will have a negative impact on demand for African products."
Britain faces stiff competition on the continent
Britain has been long criticized for undervaluing trade with Africa. The amount of products Britain sends to Africa isn't just small, it's also shrinking.
The 77 Percent — Africa's multiple business summits
UK goods imported to the whole of Africa in 2019 represented only 2.6% of the total. These were mainly commodities, including motor cars, petroleum oils, turbojets, aircraft and aircraft parts, pharmaceuticals, used clothing and electric generators.
France and Italy — whose economies are around the same size as the UK's — export considerably more to sub-Saharan Africa. Even Sweden, Belgium and Portugal, whose economies are considerably smaller, send more goods to the continent.
"As it stands, the UK has not demonstrated enough vigour and commitment to improving its bilateral trade relationships with key trading partners in the African continent post-Brexit," warned Dele Bello-Williams and Kieran Davis in a January 2020 article on the future of UK-Africa trade relations for the National Institute for African Studies.
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British investment in Africa could fall
Britain plays more of a role in Africa when it comes to investment, however. It's the continent's fifth source of direct foreign investment after China, France, the US and the United Arab Emirates, according to the Africa Attractiveness Report from Ernst & Young.
Currently, this investment is heavily focused on extractives — natural resources — and on South Africa.
But the dual shock of the coronavirus pandemic and Brexit means the investment sentiment in Britain is low, said economist Dirk Kohnert.
"My guess: The UK, under the current coronavirus terms, won't be able to deliver on its generous investment promises for Africa," he said.
Antonio Cascais contributed to this article.
What's in the EU-UK Brexit trade deal?
The Brexit trade agreement is meant to ensure the United Kingdom's smooth departure from one of the world's biggest trading blocs. DW explores its key provisions.
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Zero tariffs
The Brexit agreement has secured zero tariffs or quotas on goods traded once the United Kingdom exits the EU single market and customs union. This ensures a seamless trade transition in January 2021, with lower prices of basic goods for consumers. Negotiators have also reached specific facilitation arrangements for key industries such as wine, organics, automotive pharmaceuticals and chemicals.
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Visa-free travel, social security benefits
Freedom of movement, including the right to work, study, start a business or live in the EU and UK will end. But the agreement provides visa-free travel for short-term visits up to 90 days. It also ensures that current UK and EU residents of each other's territories are able to retain their rights to work, as well as benefits such as pensions, parental leave and health care, among others.
Image: picture-alliance/empics/S. Parsons
EU-UK fisheries agreement
The UK will become an independent coastal state and face customs and food safety checks on its EU exports. But the agreement ensures sustainable management of shared fish stocks and quotas in EU and UK waters, in a transition period of 5 1/2 years. During this time, reciprocal access to fish remains unchanged. Afterwards, the two sides will have to reevaluate the situation for a new agreement.
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Aviation safety and security cooperation
As UK passenger planes will lose access to a free EU aviation market, the agreement ensures cooperation between both sides on aviation safety, security and air traffic management. It provides aviation cargo with unlimited point-to-point traffic between UK and EU airports, but also to other countries — known as fifth freedom traffic rights.
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Some trade in services salvaged
Automatic recognition of professional qualifications for doctors, nurses, pharmacists, engineers and other professionals is set to end between the EU and UK. But the trade agreement ensures fair treatment for service suppliers or investors. It also removes unjustified barriers to digital trade and allows for open procurement markets for UK or EU bidders.
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Energy cooperation
The UK will leave the EU's internal energy market, the European Atomic Energy Community and will be out of bloc's Emissions Trading System. But the two sides have agreed to guarantees on energy supply security and offshore energy cooperation in the North Sea. The Brexit agreement also features enforceable commitments toward the Paris climate deal and seeks to link EU and UK carbon pricing regimes.
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UK remains in science research programs
In education, research and technology, the UK will abandon programs such as the Erasmus university program and the Galileo satellite system. But through the Brexit agreement, the UK will remain a part of five key programs: Horizon Europe, the EURATOM Research and Training Program, ITER (fusion test facility), Copernicus Earth monitoring system and EU Satellite Surveillance and Tracking system.
Image: Chris Ison/empics/picture alliance
Truck transport rights
UK truck operators will lose the right to conduct unlimited cross-trade in the EU, but the Brexit agreement ensures unlimited point-to-point access between the EU and the UK. It ensures full transit rights across each other's territories and grants the right to perform up to two extra operations within them. Working conditions, road safety and fair competition provisions are also included.
Image: Gareth Fuller/PA/empics/picture alliance
Continued cooperation with Europol, Eurojust
The UK will leave agencies such as Europol and Eurojust, and will lose access to the EU's sensitive databases in areas of security and justice. But the Brexit agreement ensures continued cooperation between the UK and these agencies. It also includes mechanisms for quick data exchange of passenger, DNA, fingerprint, vehicle and criminal record information between the UK and the EU.