One of the main topics of discussion in Berlin on December 14 and 15 was the post-ceasefire security guarantees that Ukraine would receive in the event of an agreement with Russia. In addition to European leaders, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of US President Donald Trump took part in the talks. Afterwards, there was a telephone call with the US president.

At a joint press conference, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Zelenskyy were upbeat about the progress made. They said that there had been discussion of security guarantees akin to those offered by Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and territorial questions. 

Legally binding commitments in wake of ceasefire

In their "Leader's statement on Ukraine," European leaders referred to a "European-led 'multinational force Ukraine' made up from contributions from willing nations." This would "assist in the regeneration of Ukraine's forces, in securing Ukraine's skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine."

The statement also outlined commitments in the event of peace to a "US led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism with international participation," as well as "a legally binding commitment, subject to national procedures, to take measures to restore peace and security in the case of a future armed attack" on Ukraine.

Citing its own sources, the Reuters news agency reported that Zelenskyy had agreed during the talks in Berlin to drop Ukraine's NATO bid in return for security guarantees from the West.

It remains unclear what the guarantees for Ukraine could look like in concrete terms. "These measures may include armed force, intelligence and logistical assistance, economic and diplomatic actions," the European leaders' statement said. So far, the US has not issued an official statement.

According to the AFP news agency, a US official said that the "basis of the agreement is basically to have really, really strong guarantees — Article Five like — also a very, very strong deterrence." This reportedly did not involve the deployment of US troops.

Would the security guarantees be like NATO's Article 5?

Susan Stewart from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) told DW that the European leader statement and the fact that it outlined concrete measures was "very important" for Ukraine. She said that the potential security guarantees were similar to those granted to NATO members by Article 5, which obliges the alliance to support a member state if it is attacked. "Article 5 of the NATO treaty does not stipulate that an attack must be responded to with military means, but rather that each state should must use the means it deems necessary and appropriate," she pointed out.

Stewart said it would only be possibly to assess the guarantees thoroughly once all the details had been published. "But I think it's very important that this step has now been taken, to list these points and say: 'Yes, we as Europeans are ready to do this.'" She said that the statement indicated that "certain agreements with the US" had already been made.

In the opinion of Claudia Major, a security expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the security guarantees for Ukraine are not comparable to those granted NATO members. "It is support. However, it is not a legally binding obligation to defend Ukraine in the event of a new attack," she told German public broadcaster ARD.

She said that on the basis of what is currently known there was no way of deducing what might happen concretely in the wake of a future Russian attack. "Will troops be sent? Will someone come to defend Ukraine, as would happen in NATO? This is not the case."

Russia believes it's 'on the path to victory'

He did not think that Russia would make concessions since it believes it is "on the path to victory," he said. "The specific issue here is Donbass, whether or not the Russians can effectively take possession of the entire region. At the moment, the Russians are insisting on this. Until this happens, Putin will continue this war.

Reisner was also skeptical about the potential security guarantees for Ukraine, warning that there was still reason to fear the new commitments could turn into another Budapest Memorandum or set of Minsk (I and II) Agreements.

Signed in the past to protect Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty, these international agreements did not prevent Russia from attacking Crimea in 2014 and launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. "We must hope that these security guarantees, if they come from the US, are really serious and will also be implemented," said Reisner.

Wilfried Jilge of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) also feared the current talks could lead to a "Minsk III." He warned against a "buffer zone" in Donbass, which Russians could access. Zelenskyy said after the talks in Berlin that the US had suggested setting up a "free economic zone" in the areas of the region currently controlled by Ukraine.

"As soon as the Russians are in such an area, even if it's just police forces, it's can be expected that regulations will be undermined and manipulated again," Jilge told DW. This could lead to "the Ukrainians being drawn into provocations again, which Russia will ultimately use to have another reason to occupy the area." More importantly, however, he pointed out that so far Russia had not said it was prepared to sign anything.

Russia rejects Christmas ceasefire

The first statements from Russia after the talks in Berlin offer little hope for a swift agreement. The Kremlin rejected Chancellor Merz's idea of a short Christmas ceasefire. " We want peace — we don't want a truce that would give Ukraine a respite and prepare for the continuation of the war," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

In response to a question about security guarantees, he said: "We have not seen any texts yet. Once we see them, we will analyze them."

Russia's attacks on Ukraine are likely to continue over the holidays.

This text was originally published in Ukrainian.