The goal was ambitious: Europe wanted to deliver one million artillery shells to Ukraine by March. This was intended to help in the push-back against Russia's military superiority in its war against Ukraine. But now experts at the recently concluded Munich Security Conference have had to admit that this promise cannot be kept.

One reason for this is the structure of the arms industry, which is only now making adjustments and increasing its capacities. 

Yet this is taking much longer than even security experts would have expected for a country like Germany, which regularly ranks among the five largest arms exporters worldwide in reports published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Rheinmetall's share price has quadrupled since the start of Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago. The company produces tanks for the German Bundeswehr and ammunition for the Gepard anti-aircraft gun tank, which is also being used in Ukraine. Production at several of Rheinmetall's sites has been increased to three shifts a day. The company is also planning new factories.

While a large company like Rheinmetall has the assets to finance investments relatively quickly, the situation is more difficult for many smaller companies, Hans Christoph Atzpodien, Managing Director of the German Security and Defense Industry Association (BDSV), told DW.

Atzpodien represents 200 German companies in the arms sector. Of these, 80% have no more than 300 employees. "Many of them are very specialized," says Atzpodien, meaning they build parts for other companies. This is typical of small and medium-sized companies in Germany.

To ensure that Germany's smaller arms manufacturers can ramp up production, the government plans to provide more purchase guarantees in the future. This was announced by German Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Green Party), arguing this could help the Bundeswehr and also Ukraine.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has been calling on the Bundeswehr and the entire country to become "war-ready" to be able to deter Russia from possible attacks against a NATO country in the future.

The German government recently announced that this year it will achieve NATO's 2% target for the first time in decades. This refers to the commitment of member states to invest at least 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) in their armed forces.

However, Germany will only reach that goal because it includes funds from the €100 billion ($108 billion) special fund that Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced after the start of Putin's large-scale invasion of Ukraine. The additional money will be used also to finance American F-35 fighter jets but also to boost the Bundeswehr's purchasing power.

More cooperation in the defense industry

"Things are moving forward,"  Ukraine's Minister for Strategic Industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin, told DW. Two years after the start of Russia's invasion, Kamyshin, who is responsible for arms production in Ukraine, met with German arms managers at the security conference to discuss joint ventures.

On a tour of the three Baltic states and Poland in January, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced plans for such projects involving the Ukrainian arms industry and EU companies. Ukraine is trying to produce more ammunition and weaponry at home — with Western expertise going into the future.

The problems arms production is facing in EU countries are becoming increasingly intertwined with those in Ukraine. In Munich, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba drew attention to another problem. Often, European 155-millimeter shells supplied by supporting nations can only be used for very specific artillery systems. "This is a huge problem on the ground," says Kuleba. "We can't use the same ammunition for other equipment."

NATO recognizes the problem. Although the projectiles are the same size, the guidance technology is often different. Standardization has failed in the past due to the military bureaucracy of the European member states.

A Czech plan for Ukraine

The EU has not been able to keep its promise to supply Ukraine with better and faster ammunition. But there is a glimmer of hope. The Czech President, Petr Pavel, reported that his country's Ministry of Defense and Czech manufacturers have identified shells produced in the Czech Republic that were exported but could now be bought back and delivered to Ukraine. "As far as I am aware, our companies have identified up to 500,000 of the 155-millimeter NATO shells and up to 300,000 of the 122-millimeter shells worldwide," said Pavel. However, funding still needs to be secured for this.

This article was originally written in German.

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