The planned meeting of Ukraine supporters at the US Ramstein airbase in Germany was intended as a powerful symbol. For the first time since Russia's full-fledged invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, the heads of state and government wanted to come together at the invitation and in the presence of US President Joe Biden. This meeting was planned to take place shortly before the US presidential election, the outcome of which is also likely to have a decisive impact on support for Ukraine. However, Biden canceled at short notice due to Hurricane Milton.

Instead, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had to travel to London, Paris, Rome separately and on Friday will be in Berlin.

Zelenskyy had already presented his "victory plan" in Washington and it was met with little enthusiasm, partly because it contains little that is new. According to US media, Zelenskyy has once again demanded more military aid and asked for permission to fire long-range Western weapons at targets in Russia — something Biden again refused.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who likes to walk in lockstep with Biden on the issue of support for Ukraine, said even if Washington would give Ukraine the go-ahead on this, he himself would refuse to do so. "We won't do it, and we have good reasons for that," Scholz has said.

So Zelenskyy faces skepticism from his most important allies. "Unfortunately, you have to realize," security expert Nico Lange told DW, "that we are currently in a phase where many of Ukraine's partners, especially the big partners, are just repeating what they have already announced. But nothing decisive is being added either in terms of quality or quantity."

Johann Wadephul is a foreign policy spokesman for Germany's main opposition party, the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU), which is currently leading in opinion polls one year ahead of Germany's general election. He has criticized Scholz for not doing enough. He told DW that he sees Scholz's continued refusal to provide Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles as a mistake. "It is long overdue for the German government to finally deliver long-range weapons such as the Taurus and, above all, to allow Ukraine to engage military targets on Russian soil in accordance with international law in order to be able to defend itself effectively. The partners expect Germany to show initiative and leadership here."

Ukraine on the defensive

The situation in the war zone does not look good for Ukraine. Ukrainian military officials admit their armed forces have come under severe pressure on both the eastern and southern fronts.

There is no longer any talk of a turning point, as was the case just a few weeks ago with the Ukrainian advance on the Russian region of Kursk. On the contrary: the Ukrainian army is now on the defensive. At the beginning of October, the army command announced that it had withdrawn from the city of Vuhledar in the east of the country, which had been embattled since the start of the war.

But Lange has a more optimistic take on the situation. "Russia is not achieving its goals. Although it is making progress in the Donbas, it is a long way from taking the entire region in 2024. Russia has not liberated the Kursk region either. So it wouldn't be too difficult for Ukraine to put pressure on Russia," he said.

Unfortunately, Lange admitted, Ukraine's allies lack determination and also a plan as to what exactly they want to achieve through their support. Many believe in "the myth that Russia is ultimately infinitely strong," he added.

Populist parties in Germany want to end aid to Ukraine

War weariness and fear of a direct confrontation with Russia are spreading among Ukraine's Western allies. This has also been reflected in the recent election results in some European countries.

In Germany, parties that want to end arms aid to Ukraine made significant gains in three state elections in September: the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the newly founded Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a party that blends left-leaning economic policies with conservative migration and pro-Russian foreign policy initiatives.

Regional leaders from the CDU and Scholz's own center-left Social Democrats (SPD) have also begun calling on the German government to bring Russia to the negotiating table.

Scholz seems to have marginally changed his tune in response, and now emphasizes the need to explore the possibilities for peace. As if to prove his willingness to mediate, he recently tried reaching out to Russian President Vladimir Putin suggesting a phone call, but was apparently rebuffed by the Kremlin.

US election will have huge impact

Even more important for Ukraine than anything that is happening in Germany, however, is the upcoming presidential election in the US. The US is by far Kyiv's most important military supporter.

Republican Party candidate Donald Trump has said during the election campaign that the US should "get out" of Ukraine, and accused Zelenskyy of opposing a "deal" with Putin to end the war. Vice President Kamala Harris, on the other hand, wants to maintain support for Ukraine should she win the presidency.

It's not clear what Trump would really do if he wins, said security expert Lange, adding that the former president is unpredictable.

"You can't say that if Harris wins, everything will be fine, because although the Biden administration was at the forefront of supporting Ukraine, it also bears a great deal of responsibility for its hesitancy and being slow to act," he added.

In any case, the fact that the Europeans are unable — or unwilling — to organize a Ukraine solidarity summit themselves after Biden's cancellation is a bad sign in itself, showing how dependent they are on American leadership on this issue. US officials have said the summit with Biden as host in Ramstein is to be held at a later date. The only question is when. Time is running out before the US election on November 5.

This article was originally written in German.

While you're here: Every Tuesday, DW editors round up what is happening in German politics and society. You can sign up here for the weekly email newsletter Berlin Briefing.